In the volatile and ever-shifting landscape of Philippine politics, the countdown to the 2025 midterm elections is shaping up to be a dramatic spectacle. Behind the facade of unity, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s formidable coalition is showing cracks, hinting at a fierce battle between factions that once stood shoulder to shoulder. As the political chess game intensifies, alliances are tested, and old rivalries are rekindled, leaving the nation on tenterhooks about the future of its leadership.

INFIGHTING SLIPPING THROUGH THE CRACKS

To the public, President Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte maintain a facade of cordiality, a testament to their political acumen. Yet, beneath this veneer lies a brewing storm. Their allies’ increasingly public spats have sown seeds of doubt about the stability of the UniTeam alliance forged for the 2022 elections.

The fissures first appeared when Sara Duterte, who coveted the defense portfolio, was instead handed the reins of the Department of Education. This perceived slight set the stage for further discord. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, a pivotal player in the UniTeam’s formation, faced consecutive demotions in the House of Representatives, a move that many interpreted as a power play by Speaker Martin Romualdez. Sara Duterte’s resignation from the Lakas-CMD party, following Arroyo’s demotions, further signaled a deepening rift.

MARCOS GEARING UP FOR 2025

President Marcos is not standing idly by. He has been fortifying his Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP), leveraging his presidency to expand its influence by recruiting local officials nationwide. The alliance between PFP and Romualdez’s Lakas-CMD is particularly strategic, as it unites two potent political forces in preparation for the midterm elections. However, this unity might be more fragile than it appears, given the ongoing infighting and shifting loyalties within the broader coalition.

THE WAITING GAME: SARA AND THE DUTERTES

Vice President Sara Duterte remains a wildcard. Her substantial support base, particularly in Mindanao, gives her significant leverage. Despite calls for her ouster from the Cabinet, Marcos has refrained from such drastic action, likely to avoid an outright political war with a still-powerful Duterte clan.

Rodrigo Duterte, the former president, adds another layer of complexity. His vocal criticisms of Marcos and ambiguous political plans keep both allies and opponents guessing. The potential for Duterte to run in 2025, possibly as a senatorial candidate, cannot be dismissed. His return to the political arena could galvanize support for Sara, further complicating Marcos’ plans.

GENUINE OPPOSITION: A STRUGGLE FOR RELEVANCE

Amid the ruling coalition’s drama, the opposition, primarily the Liberal Party (LP), struggles to regain its footing. Decimated in the wake of Duterte’s presidency, the LP faces an uphill battle to rebuild. Figures like Francis Pangilinan, Bam Aquino, and Chel Diokno represent the party’s attempt to stage a comeback, but their prospects remain uncertain. Former Vice President Leni Robredo, a potential pillar of hope for the opposition, is at a crossroads. Whether she will run for a Senate seat or a safer mayoral position in Naga City is still unclear, but her decision could significantly influence the opposition’s fortunes.

MAXIMIZING CHANCES Of SUCCESS: STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS

FOR MARCOS AND HIS ALLIES:

1. Unified Front: The president must work to mend internal divisions. A fragmented coalition will be vulnerable to external threats and internal collapse. Strategic concessions to key figures like Sara Duterte might be necessary to maintain a semblance of unity.
  
2. Policy Wins:  Marcos should focus on delivering tangible policy successes that resonate with the electorate, ensuring his party’s candidates have a strong platform to campaign on.

3. Engage the Base:  Active engagement with the grassroots and addressing their concerns can bolster support. The administration should not take its base for granted, especially in regions where its popularity is waning.

FOR SARA DUTERTE AND HER FACTION:

1. Strategic Positioning:  Sara must decide whether to stay within the administration or position herself as a distinct alternative. Her immense popularity and strategic stronghold in Mindanao are assets that can be leveraged independently or as part of a broader coalition.

2. Building Alliances: Strengthening her regional party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, and forging new alliances could provide a robust platform for her political ambitions, whether in the midterms or beyond.

FOR THE GENUINE OPPOSITION:

1. Unified Slate:  The opposition must present a unified front, avoiding internal squabbles that could weaken their position. Collaboration with other smaller opposition groups could help consolidate votes.

2. Clear Messaging:  The opposition needs a clear, compelling message that differentiates them from the ruling coalition. Focusing on issues like governance, corruption, and human rights can resonate with disillusioned voters.

3.  Engage Disenfranchised Voters: The opposition should target disenfranchised voters, particularly the youth and marginalized communities, who seek an alternative to the traditional political dynasties.

THE ROAD AHEAD

As the 2025 midterms approach, the Philippines finds itself at a political crossroads. The looming showdown between the Marcos and Duterte factions could redefine the nation’s political landscape. Meanwhile, the opposition’s quest for relevance adds another layer of intrigue. In this high-stakes game of political maneuvering, the actions taken in the coming months will be critical. The stage is set, and the nation watches with bated breath as the players position themselves for a dramatic electoral contest.