By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo
As the dust of geopolitical tensions settles across the globe, a new chapter of rivalry and alliance is being written, with profound implications for the Philippines. The recent announcement of joint military drills between China and Russia, dubbed Joint Sea-2024, is a stark reminder of the intensifying power play between the world’s major powers. To understand the gravity of this situation, we must explore the historical context of the USA, China, Russia, and the EU’s complex web of rivalries and alliances.
For decades, the Cold War set the stage for a bipolar world dominated by the USA and the Soviet Union. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the USA emerged as the sole superpower, steering global geopolitics largely unchallenged. However, the rise of China as an economic powerhouse and Russia’s resurgence under Vladimir Putin have reshaped the global order. The EU, with its economic clout and political influence, has played a pivotal role in this shifting landscape, often aligning with the USA but also asserting its independence.
The recent intensification of geopolitical rivalry can be traced to several key developments. Firstly, China’s assertive foreign policy, epitomized by its expansive claims in the South China Sea, has alarmed its neighbors and the West. The strategic waterway, through which a significant portion of global trade passes, has become a flashpoint, with China constructing military installations on artificial islands. The USA, viewing this as a threat to freedom of navigation, has conducted freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the region, leading to frequent standoffs.
Secondly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reignited East-West tensions, reminiscent of the Cold War. NATO’s robust support for Ukraine and the imposition of sweeping sanctions on Russia have deepened the chasm between Moscow and the West. In this fraught environment, China and Russia have found common cause, both sharing a disdain for what they perceive as Western hegemony.
China’s motives behind the announcement of joint military drills with Russia are multifaceted. By staging these exercises, China aims to project power and solidarity with Russia, signaling to the West that their partnership is formidable and enduring. This is particularly significant as NATO has identified China as a strategic competitor and a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. The joint drills serve as a counter-narrative, showcasing the military synergy and strategic alignment between Beijing and Moscow.
For the Philippines, these geopolitical maneuverings are a double-edged sword. On one hand, the deepening China-Russia alliance poses a direct threat to its territorial integrity and maritime rights in the South China Sea. On the other hand, the Philippines can leverage this situation to strengthen its alliances and enhance its strategic importance.
Historically, smaller nations caught in the crossfire of great power rivalries have suffered significant consequences. During the Cold War, Vietnam became a battleground for ideological supremacy, enduring decades of conflict and devastation. The Philippines, too, faced its own struggles, with the Marcos regime navigating the treacherous waters of US-Soviet rivalry. The lessons from these periods are clear: neutrality often comes at a high price, and aligning with like-minded allies is crucial for survival.
To avoid the pitfalls of the current geopolitical landscape and capitalize on the situation, the Philippines must take decisive actions:
- Strengthen Alliances: Reinforce ties with traditional allies, particularly the USA, Japan, and Australia. Engage in joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and defense cooperation to enhance deterrence against potential aggressors.
- Enhance Maritime Security: Invest in modernizing the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard. Develop a robust maritime domain awareness system to monitor and respond to activities in its territorial waters.
- Diplomatic Engagement: Actively participate in regional forums like ASEAN to build a collective response to China’s assertiveness. Promote multilateralism and the rule of law in resolving maritime disputes.
- Economic Diversification: Reduce economic dependence on any single country, particularly China. Strengthen trade relations with a diverse set of partners to mitigate the impact of economic coercion.
- Public Awareness and Unity: Foster a sense of national unity and resilience. Educate the public about the importance of national security and the complexities of international relations.
In the suspenseful theatre of global geopolitics, the Philippines stands at a critical juncture. The choices made today will determine its future trajectory, whether it emerges as a resilient, sovereign nation or succumbs to the pressures of larger powers. The time for action is now, for in the shadows of great power rivalry, only the prepared and the resolute will thrive.
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KWEBA ni BAROK 
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