Sara Duterte’s Slide: The Perils of Political Missteps

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo

IT WAS only a short while ago that Sara Duterte stood as a towering figure in Philippine politics, riding on the coattails of her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, who enjoyed consistently high approval ratings during and even after his tumultuous presidency. But as recent surveys from the Social Weather Stations (SWS) reveal, her political fortunes are now showing signs of decline. From a +63 net satisfaction rating in March 2024 to a +44 in June, Sara Duterte’s sharp drop in approval ratings signals a growing disillusionment among the Filipino electorate.

This decline is not merely the result of random fluctuations in public opinion; rather, it is the consequence of a series of missteps that have steadily eroded the public’s trust in her leadership. To understand the full extent of this political unraveling, we must delve into the context of her current standing, analyze the reasons behind her falling ratings, and anticipate the trajectory of her political career as the 2028 presidential election looms on the horizon.

The Background: From Sky-High to Slipping

In the wake of her father’s presidency, Sara Duterte was seen as a natural successor to the political dynasty her family had cultivated. Rodrigo Duterte’s strongman image and populist policies—though controversial—garnered him a devoted base, particularly in Mindanao and the Visayas. Sara, as mayor of Davao City, inherited much of this goodwill. Her decision to run for Vice President in 2022 was widely seen as a stepping stone to the presidency, and her early survey results reflected this.

However, the honeymoon period seems to be over. The SWS survey for the second quarter of 2024 shows a significant dip in her satisfaction ratings across nearly all demographics and regions, including her stronghold of Mindanao. This raises an alarming question: What went wrong?

The Gaffes, Missteps, and Controversies

Several factors contribute to Sara Duterte’s declining ratings, each of which speaks to deeper concerns about her leadership qualities and political judgment.

The “Designated Survivor” Gaffe: When Sara Duterte made an offhand comment about being the “designated survivor” during President Marcos Jr.’s State of the Nation Address (SONA), it struck a discordant note. The remark was widely criticized as insensitive and indicative of a lack of constitutional understanding. It suggested to many that she might not be fully prepared for the gravitas of higher office—a concern that resonates strongly in a country where the memory of past political disasters is still fresh.
Criticism of Effectiveness: Sara’s perceived lack of impactful action during critical moments, such as the Chinese Coast Guard’s aggressive maneuvers and Typhoon Carina’s devastation, has led to accusations that she is more interested in self-promotion than in governance. Lawmakers and citizens alike have questioned her absence during these crises, a critique that has evidently begun to take root in public opinion.
The Excessive Security Detail: Her insistence on a security detail larger than even that of the President has not gone unnoticed. To many, it symbolizes an inflated sense of self-importance and a disconnection from the everyday struggles of ordinary Filipinos. In a country where poverty and inequality remain pressing issues, such displays of extravagance can quickly turn public sentiment sour.
Confidential Funds Controversy: The controversy surrounding her use of confidential funds has raised serious questions about transparency and accountability. As both Vice President and Mayor of Davao City, Sara’s handling of these funds has been scrutinized, with critics accusing her of misusing public money. Her combative responses to these accusations have only deepened suspicions and eroded trust.
“O Plan Tokhang” Allegations: The lingering allegations of her involvement in the extrajudicial killings during her father’s infamous drug war continue to cast a long shadow over her record. While Sara Duterte has denied these accusations, the mere association with such a controversial and violent campaign remains a significant liability, particularly in the eyes of the international community.
“Political Harassment” Claims: Sara’s response to the reduction of her security detail, labeling it as “political harassment,” has been met with skepticism. Critics argue that this was a tactic to distract from the real issues concerning her spending and priorities. This incident has not only damaged her relationship with the Marcos administration but has also led to perceptions of her as a politician more interested in personal vendettas than public service.
The “Bags of Guns” Allegations: The accusations that she received “bags of guns” from Pastor Apollo Quiboloy, a controversial religious figure, have further tainted her reputation. Even if these claims are unfounded, they contribute to a broader narrative of questionable associations and ethical lapses, which are increasingly difficult for her to shake off.
Family Feud with the Marcoses: The growing rift between the Duterte and Marcos families, exacerbated by disagreements over the International Criminal Court and accusations of political harassment, has created a volatile political environment. This feud not only threatens to derail Sara’s ambitions but could also undermine the broader political stability that both families have sought to maintain.
Silence on China’s Encroachment: Sara Duterte’s conspicuous silence on the issue of China’s encroachment on Philippine territory in the South China Sea has drawn significant criticism. At a time when national sovereignty and security are at the forefront of public concern, her reluctance to take a strong stance on this issue is seen as a troubling abdication of leadership.
Defense of Pastor Quiboloy: Her close ties with Pastor Quiboloy, who has been embroiled in various legal controversies, raise further questions about her judgment. By defending Quiboloy, Sara has aligned herself with a figure whose reputation is highly contentious, thereby risking her own political credibility.
Endorsement of Political Dynasties: The implied endorsement of her father and brothers for senatorial bids reinforces the perception that Sara Duterte is more interested in perpetuating a political dynasty than in genuine governance. In a country weary of entrenched political families, this could prove to be a fatal miscalculation.

Forecasting the Future: 2028 and Beyond

Given these challenges, it is difficult to see how Sara Duterte can maintain her political momentum heading into the 2028 presidential election without significant course corrections. If her current trajectory continues, we can expect her survey results to decline further, especially if new controversies emerge or existing ones deepen.

Her current +44 net satisfaction rating, while still in the “good” category, could easily slip into the “moderate” or even “neutral” range if the underlying issues are not addressed. This would make her vulnerable to challengers who present themselves as more competent, transparent, and connected to the concerns of ordinary Filipinos.

Corrective Measures: A Path to Redemption?

If Sara Duterte is to reverse this downward trend, she must take decisive and strategic actions to regain public trust:

Embrace Transparency: Address the controversies surrounding confidential funds by providing a clear and transparent account of how these resources are used. This would not only neutralize criticism but also set a precedent for accountability in public office.
Clarify Her Stance on Key Issues: Sara needs to articulate a clear and firm position on national sovereignty, particularly concerning China’s actions in the South China Sea. Silence on such critical issues only fuels doubts about her leadership capabilities.
Distance Herself from Controversial Figures: While loyalty is valued in politics, Sara must weigh the costs of her associations with figures like Pastor Quiboloy. Distancing herself from such controversial personalities could help repair her image and refocus public attention on her policy positions.
Focus on Governance, Not Self-Promotion: Sara’s effectiveness as Vice President has been questioned. She must prioritize tangible governance achievements over symbolic gestures or political posturing. Showing results on the ground, especially in times of crisis, could rebuild her reputation as a capable leader.
Reassess the Family Feud: The ongoing feud with the Marcoses is a double-edged sword. While it may galvanize her base, it also risks alienating key allies. Sara should consider strategies for reconciliation or, at the very least, a détente that would allow her to focus on broader governance issues.

Conclusion: A Political Crossroads

Sara Duterte stands at a critical juncture in her political career. The decisions she makes in the coming months will determine whether she can halt the erosion of her support and reclaim her position as a leading contender for the presidency in 2028. Her fall in the SWS surveys is a wake-up call—one that she ignores at her peril.

The road to redemption is narrow and fraught with challenges, but it is not yet closed off. If she can demonstrate a renewed commitment to transparency, accountability, and effective governance, Sara Duterte may yet rewrite the narrative of her political career. But time is running out, and the Filipino people are watching closely. The stakes have never been higher.