Awakening the Dragon: A Deep Dive into Kishore Mahbubani’s Stark Warning

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — August 25, 2024

KISHORE Mahbubani, a former Singaporean ambassador to the United Nations and founding dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, is not afraid to challenge the status quo. In his books, “The Great Convergence” and “Has China Won?”, he argues for a multipolar world where Asia’s voice is finally heard, a world where the Western-dominated narrative is no longer the only story told. Mahbubani’s bold vision is shaking up global discourse and sparking debate about the future of the world.

His recent social media post questions the trajectory of China’s rise and the wisdom of current U.S. policies aimed at containing it. Mahbubani presents the metaphor of a “sleeping dragon,” suggesting that while China could have been gently integrated into the global order, recent U.S. strategies have instead awakened a potentially “angry dragon,” a force that could destabilize the world, especially Asia. This provocative imagery invites us to ponder the complex geopolitical dynamics between the United States, China, and the nations caught in between, particularly in Asia.

Historical and Contemporary Political Context

The relationship between the United States and China is one of the most consequential in modern history, deeply rooted in the events of the 20th century. When U.S. President Richard Nixon, advised by Henry Kissinger, made his historic visit to China in 1972, it marked the beginning of a strategic engagement that aimed to pull China out of its isolation and into the fold of the global community. This policy, known as the “One China” policy, laid the groundwork for China’s economic liberalization and eventual rise as a global powerhouse.

For decades, this engagement seemed to work. China became a key player in the global economy, a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and a stakeholder in various international institutions. However, as China’s economic and military capabilities grew, so did its ambitions, particularly in the South China Sea and its Belt and Road Initiative, which many in the West view as a means of extending its influence globally.

The political context shifted dramatically in the 21st century. As China grew more assertive, especially under President Xi Jinping, the United States under successive administrations began to view China’s rise as a threat to its own global dominance. This perception has led to a series of confrontational policies, including trade wars, sanctions, and restrictions on technology transfers. These moves have been bipartisan, with both the Trump and Biden administrations seeking to curtail China’s influence.

This backdrop sets the stage for Mahbubani’s thesis: that the United States’ efforts to “stop” China are not only futile but counterproductive. He warns that this strategy is creating an “angry dragon,” which, once unleashed, will pose a significant threat to global stability, particularly in Asia. The historical context of U.S.-China relations and the contemporary reality of strategic rivalry are crucial to understanding the implications of Mahbubani’s argument.

Examining the Case For and Against Mahbubani’s Perspective

For Mahbubani’s Claims:

Inevitability of China’s Rise: Mahbubani asserts that China’s rise is driven by internal dynamics, a claim supported by China’s remarkable economic growth over the past few decades. With over a billion people, a rapidly modernizing economy, and a government focused on long-term planning, China’s trajectory seems set, regardless of external pressures.
Counterproductive U.S. Policies: The argument that U.S. actions could backfire is compelling. Tariffs, sanctions, and restrictions on technology may slow China’s growth, but they also risk provoking nationalist sentiments within China, leading to a more aggressive foreign policy. The notion of an “angry dragon” is a powerful metaphor for the unintended consequences of U.S. strategies.
Asian Silence and Risks: Mahbubani highlights the silence of Asian countries, which he sees as a strategic error. These nations, he argues, will bear the brunt of any fallout from an antagonistic China, yet they remain passive. This passivity, according to Mahbubani, is dangerous because it leaves the region vulnerable to the consequences of great power rivalry.

Against Mahbubani’s Claims:

Legitimacy of U.S. Concerns: Critics of Mahbubani might argue that the U.S. has legitimate reasons to be wary of China’s rise. China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea, its human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and its ambitions to lead in advanced technologies like AI and 5G are seen as direct challenges to the international order. The U.S., therefore, is justified in seeking to curb China’s influence.
Effectiveness of Containment: While Mahbubani suggests that U.S. policies are creating an “angry dragon,” proponents of containment might argue that these measures are necessary to prevent China from becoming too powerful and dominating Asia. By limiting China’s access to critical technologies and markets, the U.S. aims to maintain a balance of power in the region.
Responsibility of Asian Nations: Mahbubani criticizes Asian countries for their silence, but one could argue that these nations are acting pragmatically. Engaging too openly could provoke China or alienate the United States, both of which are key partners. Maintaining a low profile allows these countries to avoid taking sides in a potentially dangerous rivalry.

Evaluation and Recommendations

On balance, Mahbubani’s arguments resonate with the historical realities of U.S.-China relations and the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape. The inevitability of China’s rise, coupled with the risks of a confrontational U.S. strategy, suggests that the current path could indeed lead to greater instability. The image of an “angry dragon” is not merely rhetorical; it reflects the real possibility of an embittered China taking a more aggressive stance on the global stage.

However, the legitimacy of U.S. concerns cannot be dismissed. China’s actions in the South China Sea, its human rights record, and its technological ambitions present genuine challenges to the current world order. The U.S., therefore, faces a difficult balancing act: how to address these challenges without pushing China into outright hostility.

Recommendations

To the United States:

Reevaluate Containment Strategies: The U.S. should consider a more nuanced approach that combines competition with cooperation. While it is necessary to counter China’s more aggressive moves, the U.S. should also seek areas of common interest, such as climate change and global health, to engage China constructively.
Engage Asia More Deeply: The U.S. should work more closely with Asian countries, not just as allies in containing China, but as partners in shaping a stable regional order. This requires a diplomatic strategy that respects the autonomy and interests of Asian nations.

To China:

Exercise Restraint: China should be aware of the global anxieties surrounding its rise and take steps to reassure the international community. This could involve greater transparency in its military activities, a more responsible approach to territorial disputes, and a commitment to the international norms that have facilitated its rise.
Strengthen Regional Ties: China should focus on building stronger relationships with its neighbors in Asia, not through coercion but through cooperation. This would help mitigate the fears that drive countries to align with the U.S. against China.

To Asian Countries:

Assert Regional Interests: Asian nations should not remain passive in the face of U.S.-China rivalry. They have a vested interest in preventing conflict and should be more vocal in advocating for a stable regional order. This could involve greater diplomatic coordination, possibly through ASEAN or other regional forums, to mediate tensions between the great powers.

In this delicate and increasingly polarized geopolitical environment, the actions of the United States, China, and Asian countries will determine whether the world witnesses the emergence of a cooperative or confrontational global order. The stakes could not be higher, and the need for strategic wisdom has never been greater.