Baste Duterte’s Senate Bid: A Rising Tide or a Slow Drown?

CAN the Duterte legacy survive another generation? In Philippine politics, the Duterte name is more than just a brand; it’s a legacy that spans power, controversy, and the undeniable art of political survival. As the country looks ahead to the 2025 midterm elections, the question arises: Can Sebastian “Baste” Duterte successfully step out of his father’s immense shadow and make his own mark on the Senate? Or is he simply another pawn in the ongoing dynastic chess match between the Duterte and Marcos families, both vying for dominance in a political landscape where alliances can shift as swiftly as typhoons over the Pacific?

The Duterte-Marcos Rivalry: A Dynastic Dance of Power

The Marcos and Duterte families represent two competing political behemoths in modern-day Philippine politics. Their cooperation in recent years — with Sara Duterte becoming Vice President under Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s administration — may have masked deeper rivalries. Beneath this temporary alignment, lies a brewing competition for power, as both families seek to cement their influence beyond the 2028 elections. Baste’s potential bid for the Senate is one such move in this broader power struggle.

The Duterte family, under Rodrigo Duterte’s iron-fisted leadership, carved out a strong political empire in Mindanao. His brutal war on drugs earned both accolades and condemnation globally, and this reputation has seeped into every member of his family. The Marcos family, on the other hand, is marked by its history of dictatorship, now resurfacing with Bongbong Marcos reclaiming the presidency. These two families are the prime architects of dynastic politics in the country, and a new battle seems inevitable, with Sebastian Duterte at the center of the storm.

The Rise of Baste Duterte

In Davao City, Sebastian Duterte enjoys a certain kind of hometown loyalty, following in his father’s footsteps as mayor. But his national profile is limited, leaving many Filipinos to wonder: Who is Baste Duterte? His older sister, Sara, the charismatic and powerful vice president, and his brother, Paolo, already a Congressman, have largely overshadowed him in political circles. Yet, his father’s immense popularity still offers him a launching pad, should he choose to run for the Senate.

Why Would Baste Run?

1. Maintaining the Duterte Dynasty: If the Dutertes are to continue their hold on Philippine politics, the family must spread its influence nationally, particularly with Sara aiming for the presidency in 2028. A Senate seat for Baste would ensure the family’s presence in the legislative branch, reinforcing their political foothold.

2. Strengthening PDP-Laban: With Rodrigo Duterte’s PDP-Laban facing defections and internal squabbles, Baste’s Senate run could symbolize a renewal of the party’s influence. His father’s decision to swear him into the party was a clear message: the Dutertes are gearing up for a fight, and Baste may be their new standard-bearer.

3. A Power Struggle with Marcos: While the Dutertes have worked with the Marcoses, the reality is that both families have long-term political ambitions that may not always align. A strong Senate presence for Baste could be the Duterte family’s insurance policy should the alliance fracture.

4. Personal Ambition: Baste, like many in the Duterte clan, may have ambitions beyond Davao City. A Senate bid would push him onto the national stage, where he could attempt to establish his own identity — albeit still deeply tied to the Duterte brand.

SWOT Analysis: Baste Duterte’s Senate Run

Strengths:

The Duterte Name: In the Philippines, name recognition is half the battle, and the Duterte name still carries immense weight, particularly in the southern regions.

Political Networks: His father’s long career has built strong connections, both within the PDP-Laban and outside, including allies like Sen. Bong Go and Sen. Ronald dela Rosa, who could rally support for Baste’s campaign.

Youth and Fresh Appeal: At 35, Baste brings youthful vigor to a Senate often dominated by older politicians. He could attract younger voters looking for a new face in national politics.

Weaknesses:

Lack of National Profile: Unlike Sara or Rodrigo, Baste has yet to capture the national stage in a significant way. His low visibility might hamper his Senate run unless he aggressively raises his profile.

Controversial Legacy: While Rodrigo Duterte remains popular in some circles, his violent drug war, which led to thousands of extrajudicial killings, casts a long shadow. Baste will have to contend with the baggage of his father’s legacy, both domestically and internationally.

Opportunities:

A Divided Opposition: With the opposition fractured and reeling from years of Duterte dominance, there is a vacuum for a candidate who can rally conservative forces, particularly outside Manila.

Reforming PDP-Laban: Baste could become the face of a rejuvenated PDP-Laban, restoring some of its former glory and rebuilding it as a counterforce to the Marcos-backed Partido Federal ng Pilipinas.

Threats:

Dynasty Backlash: The mid-term elections will be ripe for anti-dynasty rhetoric, and the Duterte family will be a key target. Baste will need to prove that he is more than just his father’s son if he wants to break free from this criticism.

The Marcos Influence: The Marcos family, already ensconced in the presidency, will likely want to dominate the Senate too. If Baste’s bid is seen as a threat to the Marcos political machine, expect quiet but fierce opposition.

Can He Win?

Baste Duterte’s Senate chances will hinge on his ability to build a national identity that resonates with voters beyond Mindanao. His sister Sara and his father’s lingering popularity provide an initial advantage, but political volatility and shifting alliances could easily sway his fate. If he plays his cards right, positions himself as both a continuation and departure from his father’s legacy, and builds strategic alliances, Baste has a legitimate shot. But if he fails to differentiate himself, or gets caught in the crossfire of the Duterte-Marcos rivalry, his bid could flounder before it even takes off.

Recommendations

1. Carve Out a Distinct Identity: Baste needs to step out from the shadows of his father and sister. His campaign should focus on what he stands for, not merely what the Duterte brand has come to signify.

2. Embrace Youth and Reform: If Baste positions himself as a youthful, reform-minded candidate, he could appeal to younger voters frustrated with the entrenched political dynasties.

3. Strategize Early: The midterms are crucial for PDP-Laban’s survival. Baste must build momentum now by engaging with key national issues and raising his visibility outside Davao City.

As the country braces for another Duterte campaign, one thing is clear: Baste Duterte may be the underdog in this dynastic race, but the tides of Philippine politics have a way of surprising even the most seasoned analysts. Will he rise or sink under the weight of expectations? Time will tell. But one thing’s for sure: the Duterte name will continue to be a force to be reckoned with in Philippine politics. So, what will it be, Philippines? Will you embrace another generation of Duterte rule, or will you demand a change? The choice is yours.