Sara Duterte on the Brink: Impeachment Looms as Political Storm Brews

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C Biraogo – September 10, 2024

THE political landscape in the Philippines is shifting, and Vice President Sara Duterte, once a dominant force, is now facing a serious threat to her power. The fissures in the once-formidable Marcos-Duterte alliance have surfaced, and her recent budgetary confrontation with the House of Representatives has only intensified the pressure. Behind the scenes, alliances are breaking, and the shadow of impeachment looms large, led by vocal opposition figures like Rep. France Castro.

Yet, as tension mounts, Sara Duterte still has her defenders, most notably Sen. Imee Marcos, who fiercely opposes any impeachment moves, viewing it as an affront to democracy itself. The looming question is: Can Duterte escape the tightening noose of political accountability, or will she become the latest casualty in the high-stakes world of Philippine politics?

The Broken Alliance: Marcos and Duterte at Odds

The relationship between the Marcos and Duterte clans has long been one of political convenience. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., now the president, and Sara Duterte ran on a unity ticket in the 2022 election, securing a sweeping victory. But as the challenges of governance grew, so too did the cracks in their partnership. The once-solid alliance now finds itself weakened by political maneuvering and conflicting ambitions. Sara’s resignation from the cabinet signaled the beginning of this divide, and the fallout from the 2023 Commission on Audit (COA) report on her handling of the DepEd and OVP funds has only further exacerbated the strain.

Senator Imee Marcos has remained steadfast in her support for the Dutertes, warning that any impeachment attempt would disrespect the 32 million voters who elected her. Marcos frames the impeachment threat as a dangerous weapon, one that risks turning democracy into a political game. But as pressure mounts, the question is not only whether Duterte will face impeachment but whether the Marcos-Duterte divide will widen beyond repair.

The Tightening Noose: The COA Report and Duterte’s Defiant Stance

The 2023 COA report cast a harsh light on Sara Duterte’s management of public funds. The report flagged irregularities in the use of P125 million in confidential funds by the OVP, with some 60% of these funds deemed improperly spent. Moreover, her time at the helm of DepEd has also come under fire, with COA revealing wasteful spending in the department’s feeding program—funds meant to benefit schoolchildren, but reportedly mismanaged to the tune of billions.

Against this backdrop, Duterte’s performance during the recent budget hearings left many lawmakers unimpressed. She took a hardline approach, refusing to defend the OVP budget or clarify the COA findings. Instead, she deflected, alleging that some lawmakers were weaponizing the hearings for political attacks. To many, her actions appeared evasive, stoking the flames of the impeachment discourse.

The Impeachment Divide: Arguments for and Against Duterte’s Removal

In Favor of Impeachment (Castro’s Case)

Rep. France Castro, a key figure in the opposition, has framed Duterte’s alleged misuse of public funds as grounds for impeachment. Her arguments rest on the constitutional provisions outlined in Article XI, Section 2 of the 1987 Philippine Constitution, which permits the impeachment of the Vice President for “culpable violation of the Constitution, treason, bribery, graft and corruption, other high crimes, or betrayal of public trust.”

Castro’s focus is on Duterte’s alleged “betrayal of public trust,” a catch-all provision used in previous high-profile impeachments, such as those of former President Joseph Estrada and Chief Justice Renato Corona. The COA’s findings offer a substantial basis for claims of graft and corruption, particularly under Republic Act No. 3019 (Anti-Graft and Corrupt Practices Act), which governs the misuse of public funds. In this light, the refusal to explain the OVP’s budget further strengthens the impeachment case, as transparency and accountability are enshrined in both law and public service ethics (Republic Act No. 6713).

Against Impeachment (Imee Marcos’ Case)

Sen. Imee Marcos, meanwhile, has dismissed the impeachment threat as an affront to the 32 million people who elected Duterte into office. She argues that impeachment undermines the will of the electorate and amounts to playing politics at the expense of democracy. While her argument does not directly counter the constitutional grounds for impeachment, it taps into the popular sentiment that election results should not be easily overturned.

Marcos also points to the high threshold for impeachment, requiring one-third of the House to approve the articles before the case can move to the Senate for trial. She suggests that initiating such a process on what she perceives as politically motivated charges sets a dangerous precedent. Historically, this argument was echoed during the impeachment of Chief Justice Corona, where the process was criticized as politically charged, despite the constitutional legitimacy of the case.

SWOT Analysis: Sara Duterte’s Impeachment

Strengths

Strong Political Base: Duterte retains a loyal following, particularly in Mindanao, which could serve as a bulwark against political opposition.
Allies in the Senate: Imee Marcos and other influential allies may provide protection against a full-blown impeachment attempt.
Public Mandate: The 32 million votes she received in the 2022 election still carry weight, making it difficult for her detractors to portray her as lacking legitimacy.

Weaknesses

Damning COA Report: The COA’s findings on mismanaged public funds, particularly the OVP’s confidential funds, present a legal and ethical vulnerability.
Alienation of the House: Her confrontational stance in the budget hearings has weakened her relationship with lawmakers, a critical factor in the impeachment process.
Perception of Evasiveness: Her refusal to engage with the budget hearings feeds into the narrative that she is avoiding accountability.

Opportunities

Political Redemption: By adopting a more transparent stance and addressing the COA findings head-on, Duterte could rehabilitate her public image.
Strengthening Support in Mindanao: Rallying her base in Mindanao could help neutralize the impeachment threat and demonstrate her political staying power.

Threats

Impeachment Process: If one-third of the House endorses impeachment, the process could shift into high gear, leading to a Senate trial.
Loss of Political Allies: The weakening of the Marcos-Duterte alliance and estrangement from key House leaders threaten her ability to govern effectively.
Public Disillusionment: Prolonged political uncertainty could erode public confidence, making it harder for Duterte to navigate future political challenges.

The Ripple Effect: What Happens if Duterte is Impeached?

If Duterte is impeached, the fallout would be seismic. Politically, it could signal the end of her ambitions for higher office, derailing any future presidential run in 2028. It would also deepen the political rift between the Duterte and Marcos clans, reshaping alliances ahead of future elections. For the Marcos administration, losing Duterte as an ally could complicate the balance of power in the Senate and in regional strongholds like Mindanao.

Moreover, impeachment would trigger a broader examination of corruption within the highest levels of government, setting a precedent for holding top officials accountable. This could lead to more scrutiny of how other officials handle confidential funds and deepen demands for transparency.

The Odds of Impeachment: Will Duterte Survive the Political Storm?

The likelihood of Duterte facing impeachment depends largely on the House of Representatives. While the opposition, led by Rep. Castro, may push the issue, it remains uncertain whether enough members of the House would back the articles of impeachment. The political calculus is complex: many lawmakers may hesitate to oppose Duterte openly, particularly given her father’s enduring influence in Mindanao. Moreover, with allies like Imee Marcos in the Senate, any impeachment trial could face a steep uphill battle.

Recommendations

For Sara Duterte: To stave off impeachment, Duterte must immediately take a more conciliatory approach. Acknowledging the COA’s findings and addressing them directly would demonstrate a willingness to be accountable. Engaging with the House and providing detailed explanations regarding the OVP budget would also help rehabilitate her image. Above all, she must rally her political allies and clarify her future intentions, which could temper the impeachment momentum.

For the House: Lawmakers pushing for impeachment must ensure that their case is built on constitutional grounds, not political motivations. By focusing on transparency and public accountability, rather than personal vendettas, they can maintain the legitimacy of the process. If the impeachment proceeds, ensuring a fair and transparent trial will be critical in preserving public trust in democratic institutions.

In the high-stakes world of Philippine politics, the fate of Vice President Sara Duterte now hangs in the balance. Will she outmaneuver her critics, or will the impeachment threat unravel her political career? As the tension builds, one thing is clear: the stakes couldn’t be higher. This moment, however, is not just about Duterte. It’s about the future of the Philippines. It’s about whether the country will embrace a future of transparency, accountability, and democratic principles, or whether it will succumb to the allure of unchecked power and political maneuvering. The choices made today will echo through the halls of Philippine history.