Sabina Shoal: Battleground in China’s Power Struggle with the Philippines and America

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — September 24, 2024

THE South China Sea is fast becoming the world’s most dangerous flashpoint, as China’s ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ sharpens its claws on Philippine territory. In this high-stakes power struggle, the fate of the region—and the delicate balance of U.S.-China relations—hangs in the balance.

Background: The South China Sea Dispute

At the heart of the tension lies China’s expansive claim to the South China Sea, delineated by the so-called “nine-dash line,” which it later revised to the “ten-dash line” in 2023. This claim asserts sovereignty over about 85% of the waters, including islands, reefs, and shoals, which overlap with the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of several Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines. The area is not only rich in natural resources but also a vital commercial waterway, through which trillions of dollars in trade pass annually.

The legal confrontation between the Philippines and China culminated in a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which invalidated China’s claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The tribunal found that China’s assertions over Philippine territories like the Scarborough Shoal and Mischief Reef had no legal basis. However, China has disregarded the ruling, labeling it “illegal, null, and void,” and has continued its militarization and territorial expansion, seizing key features like Mischief Reef and converting them into military bases.

China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy

China’s assertiveness has been most visible through its brand of “wolf warrior diplomacy,” a term derived from a popular Chinese action film, which describes its confrontational and aggressive stance on foreign policy issues. Under President Xi Jinping, this approach has manifested in military posturing, coercion, and economic retaliation, combined with aggressive rhetoric aimed at silencing critics and intimidating smaller nations.

The case of the Sabina Shoal encapsulates the tactics of wolf warrior diplomacy. Sabina Shoal, located well within the Philippines’ EEZ but far from China’s coastline, has been a flashpoint. The Philippines stationed a Coast Guard vessel, Teresa Magbanua, at the shoal, monitoring Chinese reclamation activities. China responded with provocations, such as ramming Philippine vessels and conducting aggressive maneuvers. While Beijing may not officially declare war, its provocations serve to intimidate Manila and undermine its territorial claims.

This pattern of behavior is not isolated. China’s actions in the South China Sea are part of a broader strategy to establish dominance in the region, while simultaneously testing the resolve of U.S. treaty allies, like the Philippines, in challenging its expanding hegemony. Gordon Chang, in his piece, argues that China’s wolf warrior diplomacy is a calculated strategy to provoke a broader conflict, one that could ultimately involve the United States due to the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) between the U.S. and the Philippines.

U.S. and Philippine Countermeasures

In response to China’s provocations, the Philippines has taken steps to strengthen its defenses, enhance its diplomatic standing, and leverage alliances, most notably with the United States. The U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty, signed in 1951, is a cornerstone of regional security, committing the U.S. to defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack. Though ambiguities in the treaty have raised questions about the scope of U.S. intervention in maritime disputes, recent U.S. administrations have made it clear that aggressive actions by China could trigger the treaty’s provisions.

The Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has recalibrated its foreign policy, returning to a pro-U.S. stance after the ambivalence of former President Duterte. Marcos Jr. has reinvigorated military exercises with U.S. forces, such as Balikatan, and strengthened ties with other regional allies like Japan, Australia, and India, which share concerns about China’s growing assertiveness. In 2023, the Philippines granted the U.S. greater access to its military bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), positioning both nations to respond more quickly to Chinese provocations.

Beyond military cooperation, the Philippines has pursued diplomatic alliances, actively participating in multilateral forums like ASEAN, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), and other international bodies to raise awareness about China’s aggressive tactics. The Philippines’ strategy has also included public relations efforts to highlight Chinese provocations, such as when international journalists documented the ramming incident involving a Philippine vessel, thus garnering global attention.

Analyzing Gordon Chang’s Thesis

Chang argues that China’s wolf warrior diplomacy is a deliberate strategy to provoke a conflict with the United States, with smaller U.S. allies like the Philippines serving as initial targets. According to Chang, China’s confrontational stance, including ramming ships and escalating military activity, aims to erode U.S. influence and test its resolve in the Indo-Pacific.

In favor of this thesis, Chang points to China’s aggressive pattern of behavior. The fact that Beijing continues its provocations, even in the face of U.S. warnings, suggests that it is confident in its strategy to push the boundaries of U.S. commitments. The use of tactics like maritime militias and so-called “gray-zone” warfare—actions just short of conventional military conflict—further indicates a desire to incrementally advance Chinese interests without sparking a full-blown war.

However, critics of Chang’s view argue that China is unlikely to want direct conflict with the U.S., given the economic and military risks. Instead, China’s actions may be aimed at securing long-term dominance in the South China Sea without triggering open warfare. Despite the provocations, China might calculate that the U.S. and its allies will be unwilling to escalate the conflict due to the risks involved in direct confrontation between nuclear powers.

The War Drums Beat: Assessing the Likelihood of Conflict

While the risk of miscalculation is significant, an outright war between China and the U.S. remains unlikely. Both sides have much to lose, and while China’s aggressive moves are concerning, they have been careful to avoid crossing red lines that would provoke a full military response. The U.S. is also balancing its deterrence strategy with diplomatic engagements to de-escalate tensions.

Recommendations

U.S.-Philippine Coordination: Both nations should continue to clarify their commitments under the MDT to ensure a swift, coordinated response to any aggression. The U.S. should also consider stronger naval presence and joint exercises in contested areas like the Sabina Shoal to deter further provocations.
ASEAN Unity: Regional actors, particularly ASEAN, must strengthen their collective stance on the South China Sea. A unified regional response could pressure China diplomatically while reducing the likelihood of isolated confrontations.
Multilateral Engagement: The international community should continue to pressure China to abide by the 2016 arbitration ruling. This requires reinforcing international laws and norms through mechanisms such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization.
Diplomatic Channels: China and the U.S. should maintain high-level diplomatic channels to manage tensions, preventing an accidental conflict from spiraling out of control.

Conclusion

As China flexes its diplomatic and military might in the South China Sea, the future of the region hangs in a delicate balance. The Philippines faces a crucial test, and the U.S. must decide if it will rise to meet the challenge or retreat from the stage. In this high-stakes game, diplomacy and strategy must be wielded with precision, for a single misstep could ignite a conflict that reshapes global power for generations to come.