A Rift in the Dynasty: BBM’s Support for Imee Amidst Political Tensions

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — October 1, 2024

AS THE clock ticks toward the 2025 elections, the power struggle at the heart of the Marcos dynasty is heating up. Senator Imee Marcos has chosen to chart her own path, stepping away from her brother’s administration slate in a move that raises more questions than it answers. President Bongbong Marcos Jr. insists the administration still backs her, but this public show of unity masks deeper fissures in the coalition—and perhaps the family itself. With personal loyalty and political survival hanging in the balance, the stakes have never been higher.

To understand the implications of BBM’s statement and the strategy behind it, we must consider a matrix of political motivations: Imee’s independence, the unresolved tension between her and First Lady Liza Araneta Marcos, the animosity with House Speaker Martin Romualdez (her cousin), and her ties to the Duterte family, who have positioned themselves as BBM’s opponents.

The Marcos Family Dynamic: Sibling Rivalry and Strategic Independence

Historically, Imee has been a critical figure in BBM’s political trajectory. She was instrumental in his 2016 vice-presidential bid—though he lost—setting the stage for his eventual rise to the presidency in 2022. However, as is often the case with political families, shared ambitions can breed discord. The strain between Imee and BBM’s wife, Liza Araneta Marcos, reportedly stems from competing visions of how power within the family and the administration should be wielded. Liza, a formidable legal mind, has shaped much of BBM’s political strategy since his presidency, pushing a more modern, technocratic approach, while Imee has remained a populist figure.

This sibling rivalry is further complicated by Imee’s tensions with Speaker Romualdez, a cousin who has long been a key ally and loyal supporter of BBM. Despite Romualdez’s own political ambitions, his unwavering loyalty to President Marcos has remained steadfast, often positioning him as a trusted lieutenant within the Marcos political machinery. The tensions between Imee and Romualdez are not so much a reflection of family rivalry for influence, but rather a struggle for distinct political identities. Imee’s decision to run independently, despite her inclusion in the administration slate, can be seen as an effort to carve out her own space in the political landscape while steering clear of the dynamics between BBM and Romualdez, whose allegiance to the President remains solid.

Political Chess: Imee’s Withdrawal and Its Implications

BBM’s assertion that the Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas remains supportive of Imee’s bid, despite her decision to run independently, is politically strategic. It suggests that BBM recognizes the need to keep his sister close, even as she steps away from the administration’s formal slate. This move could be designed to maintain an image of familial unity, which is crucial for the Marcos brand, while allowing Imee the freedom to campaign on her terms—perhaps appealing to a broader base of voters disillusioned by the administration.

From a tactical standpoint, this separation might allow Imee to distance herself from the baggage of BBM’s presidency, particularly as it grapples with economic challenges and political opposition. Her independent run could enable her to appeal to voters who are critical of the administration but still sympathetic to the Marcos name—a balancing act that would have been more difficult if she remained officially aligned with BBM’s slate.

SWOT Analysis of BBM’s Strategy:

Strengths:

Family Cohesion: BBM’s statement preserves the appearance of familial unity, a key factor in maintaining the Marcos political brand.
Political Flexibility: Imee’s independent bid allows her to attract a broader range of voters, including those critical of the administration.
Coalition Loyalty: By maintaining support for Imee, the Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas retains its influential connection to the Marcos family, preserving stability within the coalition.

Weaknesses:

Perception of Fracture: Imee’s withdrawal, despite BBM’s assurances of support, could signal internal discord within the administration, undermining confidence in the unity of the Marcos regime.
Conflicted Loyalties: Imee’s closeness to the Duterte family, who are now openly opposed to BBM, raises questions about her ultimate loyalties.

Opportunities:

Strategic Independence: Imee can craft a campaign that distances her from the administration’s weaknesses while still benefiting from the resources of the Marcos network.
Appeal to Critics: Running independently allows Imee to engage with voters dissatisfied with BBM’s presidency, positioning herself as a reformist within the dynasty.

Threats:

Division Within the Base: The apparent split between Imee and the administration could alienate loyal Marcos supporters, creating divisions within the Marcos-Duterte voting bloc.
Opposition Attacks: The opposition may exploit this rift to question the stability of BBM’s leadership and the cohesion of his political allies.

The Duterte Factor: Imee’s Key to Victory?

A crucial piece of this puzzle is Imee’s relationship with the Dutertes, the political family who rose to prominence after the Marcos era but whose paths are now diverging from BBM. While Sara Duterte ran as BBM’s vice president in 2022, tensions between the Marcoses and Dutertes have escalated since, particularly as Sara positions herself as a potential 2028 presidential contender.

Imee’s ties to the Dutertes—particularly Sara Duterte—could serve as a vital asset in her independent run. By aligning herself with the Duterte brand of politics, which remains popular among a significant portion of the electorate, Imee may be able to attract voters who view BBM’s administration as increasingly disconnected from the populist policies of Rodrigo Duterte’s presidency.

A Path to Victory?

Can Imee win the election despite her withdrawal from the administration slate? The odds are favorable, but not guaranteed. Her independent bid allows her to stand apart from BBM’s potential political missteps, while her established name recognition, familial loyalty, and connections to both the Marcos and Duterte camps give her a substantial advantage. However, the risk lies in the perception of a fractured family and administration. Should the opposition effectively capitalize on these internal divisions, Imee’s path to victory could be compromised.

Recommendations:

Reaffirm Family Unity: Imee and BBM should present a united front publicly, despite their differences. Any sign of division will be exploited by political rivals.
Leverage Duterte Ties: Imee should actively seek the endorsement or at least tacit support of the Dutertes to consolidate a powerful voting bloc.
Emphasize Independence: Imee’s campaign should stress her autonomy, framing her as a candidate who is loyal to the people, not any one political group, appealing to voters disillusioned by traditional politics.

As the 2025 elections draw nearer, the question remains: has Imee Marcos outmaneuvered her rivals, or has she walked into a political minefield? Her path, fortified by BBM’s backing yet defined by her independence, teeters between brilliance and risk. In a game where fortunes can turn on a single move, only the voters will deliver the final verdict.