The Nograles-Duterte Rivalry Reignited: Analyzing the 2025 Davao City Midterm Elections

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — October 11, 2024

DAVAO City is once again the battleground for a power struggle decades in the making. As the midterm elections approach, the old rivalry between the Duterte and Nograles dynasties is reigniting with renewed intensity. Karlo Nograles, vying for mayor, and his sister Margarita, challenging Paolo Duterte for the 1st District congressional seat, are setting the stage for a political showdown that echoes far beyond the city’s borders. What’s at stake? Not just control of Davao, but a possible preview of the 2028 presidential race.

A Bitter History: The Nograles-Duterte Rivalry

The rivalry between the Nograles and Duterte families stretches back to the early 1990s, when Prospero Nograles first attempted to unseat Rodrigo Duterte. Despite Nograles’ national stature as House Speaker and his many years representing Davao’s 1st District, he consistently struggled to overcome Duterte’s dominance. The feud between Prospero and Rodrigo was more than just personal ambition; it was a fight over political control in a rapidly developing Davao City, a contest that would leave deep divisions in the city’s electorate.

While Prospero Nograles managed to secure a place in the national political arena, Duterte’s grip on Davao City proved unbreakable. The latter’s brand of tough governance, which combined economic progress with a fierce crackdown on crime, resonated deeply with Davao’s residents. Over the years, Duterte’s children—Sara, Sebastian, and Paolo—would carry on the family’s political legacy, further consolidating the Duterte dynasty.

The Duterte Dominance

Rodrigo Duterte’s political career in Davao was unparalleled, with a 22-year mayoral tenure that entrenched his family’s control. His tough-on-crime platform and strongman image earned him a devoted following in the city, even as his critics denounced the human rights violations that accompanied his policies. His rise to the presidency in 2016 was the culmination of years of building a base that equated his leadership with safety, security, and prosperity.

Yet, as the Dutertes’ hold on power tightened, it also began to breed resentment. A growing anti-dynasty sentiment, both locally and nationally, began to emerge. This sentiment, coupled with the Marcos family’s resurgence in national politics under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has set the stage for a complex power struggle. While the Dutertes have dominated local elections for years, the upcoming 2025 midterms could mark a turning point.

The Nograles Resurgence

Enter Karlo and Margarita Nograles. The Nograles siblings are now positioning themselves as serious contenders, backed by a growing desire for change among a segment of Davao’s electorate. Karlo’s decision to challenge for the mayoralty, and Margarita’s bid for Congress, rekindles the rivalry that defined much of the city’s political history. But the Nograleses’ return to the battlefield is not just about local politics. It signals a deeper alignment with the Marcos administration, potentially serving as proxies for the president’s political ambitions in Mindanao.

While Karlo’s credentials as a former Cabinet secretary and Civil Service Commission chair add weight to his candidacy, the Nograleses must overcome the legacy of consistent defeat at the hands of the Dutertes. Their challenge is not merely electoral but psychological, as they must convince Davaoeños that they can deliver on the promise of economic growth and security that the Dutertes have long claimed as their own.

The Decline of Duterte Power

Despite their long-standing dominance, cracks are beginning to appear in the Dutertes’ political armor. Rodrigo Duterte’s post-presidency approval ratings have waned slightly, partly due to controversies surrounding his handling of the drug war and other human rights concerns. His children, while still powerful, face challenges in maintaining their father’s level of popularity.

Moreover, Davao voters are becoming increasingly aware of the dangers of political dynasties. While the Duterte brand remains strong, it is no longer invincible. Anti-dynasty sentiment is growing, and voters are beginning to question whether continued Duterte leadership will lead to new progress or stagnation. This shift opens the door for the Nograleses, who are positioning themselves as the fresh alternative, free from the baggage of an entrenched political family.

The Marcos-Duterte Power Struggle

At the national level, the Marcos-Duterte alliance has begun to fray, with signs of a brewing rivalry between the two political dynasties. While Sara Duterte played a key role in the 2022 Marcos Jr. victory, tensions have since emerged as both families eye the 2028 presidential election. The Nograleses, long seen as rivals to the Dutertes, are now viewed as potential allies of the Marcoses in this looming struggle for supremacy.

A Nograles victory in Davao City would not only signal the decline of the Duterte dynasty but also solidify the Marcoses’ influence in Mindanao, a crucial electoral base. This makes the 2025 elections in Davao City pivotal for both families’ 2028 agendas.

SWOT Analysis: The Nograles Challenge

Strengths:

Karlo Nograles’ experience as a former Cabinet secretary and CSC chair offers technocratic appeal.
Anti-dynasty sentiment could galvanize voters looking for change.
Alignment with the Marcos administration provides national political backing and resources.

Weaknesses:

The Dutertes’ deep-rooted influence in Davao City, built over decades, is formidable.
Past electoral defeats of the Nograles family may cast doubt on their viability among certain voter demographics.
The emotional and historical loyalty to Duterte’s policies on crime and security remains strong among many voters.

Opportunities:

Growing dissatisfaction with political dynasties may drive voters to support new leadership.
Economic concerns, especially post-pandemic, could offer a platform for Nograles to propose new development strategies.
A potential falling-out between the Marcoses and Dutertes could redirect support from national actors towards the Nograleses.

Threats:

The Duterte family’s ability to mobilize resources and command loyalty across various sectors remains a significant hurdle.
The Nograleses may face an uphill battle in framing their candidacies as more than just a counter to the Dutertes, especially if they fail to differentiate themselves on key policy issues.
The national political climate remains unpredictable, and any resurgence in Duterte popularity could crush the Nograleses’ chances.

The Implications of the Davao City Elections

The stakes in Davao City go beyond local governance. If the Nograleses succeed, it would signify the weakening of the Duterte dynasty and a potential shift in Mindanao’s political alignment ahead of the 2028 presidential race. For the Marcoses, a Nograles victory could serve as a foothold in the South, consolidating their influence in the region. However, if the Dutertes manage to fend off the challenge, they would prove that their political dynasty remains resilient, even as the national mood shifts.

Recommendations:

To the Nograleses: Emphasize economic development and security while framing themselves as modernizers who can break the hold of political dynasties in Davao. They must engage younger voters while reassuring older, more traditional supporters of their capability.
To the Dutertes: Lean into the family’s legacy of law and order but acknowledge the need for new leadership that can address economic stagnation. By modernizing their message, the Dutertes can appeal to voters who respect their history but desire change.
To the Marcoses: Strengthen their alliance with the Nograleses without overshadowing their local message. Marcos Jr. must balance his ambition for national dominance with the need to keep regional politics in Davao stable.
To the Davaoeños: Weigh the merits of each family, considering whether Davao needs continuity or a fresh start.
To the Filipinos: Watch closely. The battle in Davao City might just be a preview of the 2028 national contest.

Conclusion: A Battle for the Future of Mindanao

As the Nograles and Duterte families prepare to face off in the 2025 Davao City elections, the stakes couldn’t be higher. This is not just about local politics—it’s a battle for the future of Mindanao and, potentially, the 2028 presidential race. For the Nograleses, it’s a chance to rewrite history. For the Dutertes, it’s about protecting a legacy built over decades. What happens next will shape not just two families, but the political direction of an entire nation.