Pro-China Stance Becomes Poison Pill for Duterte’s Candidates

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — October 16, 2024

AS tensions flare in the West Philippine Sea, a new Pulse Asia survey strikes fear into Duterte’s allies: Filipinos have no patience for pro-China politicians. With 73% of the public rejecting candidates who cozy up to Beijing, the 2025 Senate race may spell doom for the remnants of Duterte’s political machine—and his controversial legacy.

The Battle for Hearts and Minds: The Controversy at the Center of the Conflict

The Philippines’ territorial conflict with China has become more than a geopolitical dispute—it is a litmus test of patriotism. For years, Chinese vessels have harassed Filipino fishermen and naval personnel in the West Philippine Sea, often brazenly ignoring a 2016 international ruling that invalidated China’s territorial claims. Against this backdrop, Duterte’s policy of appeasement toward China—framed as pragmatic diplomacy—has been met with increasing public hostility.

This simmering tension is now boiling over as the 2025 midterm elections approach. The new Pulse Asia poll lays bare the stark reality: Duterte’s pro-China allies face a steep uphill battle, with their stance appearing out of step with an electorate that views Chinese influence as a threat to national sovereignty.

The Race Redefined: Candidates and the Survey’s Impact on the Election

The survey’s findings have profound implications for key candidates allied with Duterte, many of whom have long embraced his China-friendly policies. Bong Go, Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, and Imee Marcos—all prominent figures in Duterte’s political camp—are at the center of this reckoning. Other celebrity candidates like Philip Salvador, Jimmy Bondoc, and Willie Revillame, though lacking a clear policy stance, could also be swept up in the anti-China sentiment due to their alignment with Duterte’s political brand.

Bong Go: Duterte’s closest confidant, Go has defended the administration’s foreign policy and its conciliatory stance toward Beijing. His challenge now lies in recalibrating his message, emphasizing economic ties without appearing subservient to China.
Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa: As the former police chief who spearheaded Duterte’s bloody war on drugs, dela Rosa faces a dual burden: his human rights record and his association with China policy. He will need to navigate both to remain viable.
Imee Marcos: While Marcos enjoys residual goodwill from her political dynasty, her vocal support for Duterte’s China policy could now become a liability. She may need to pivot toward a more nationalist message to resonate with the electorate.
Philip Salvador, Jimmy Bondoc, and Willie Revillame: Although they are political novices, their association with Duterte makes them vulnerable to the same anti-China backlash. They face an urgent need to articulate clear platforms—or risk being defined by their proximity to Duterte’s unpopular policies.

The Shifting Tides: Adapting to the New Political Reality

With seven in ten Filipinos unwilling to back pro-China candidates, the road ahead for Duterte’s allies is fraught with peril. The survey indicates not only widespread distrust of China but also a growing impatience with politicians perceived as prioritizing foreign interests over national sovereignty.

To mitigate the fallout, these candidates may consider the following strategies:

Pivot to Nationalism: Candidates need to reframe their platforms to emphasize defending Philippine sovereignty, distancing themselves from any appearance of subservience to Beijing. This approach could resonate with voters across socioeconomic classes, especially in regions like the Visayas, where opposition to China is highest (85%).
Highlight Independent Credentials: Allies of Duterte must carefully assert their political independence, crafting narratives that separate their campaigns from Duterte’s shadow. This strategy could mitigate the perception that they are mere extensions of his political agenda.
Address Bread-and-Butter Issues: Candidates can shift the focus to domestic issues—jobs, healthcare, and poverty reduction—that resonate with ordinary Filipinos. By presenting themselves as problem-solvers, they might divert attention away from their foreign policy positions.
Selective Criticism of China: Instead of disowning their past stance, candidates could engage in targeted criticism of Chinese actions in the West Philippine Sea. This could signal a nuanced change in policy without alienating Duterte loyalists.

The Stakes for Duterte and Philippine Politics

The 2025 elections will serve as a referendum on Duterte’s political influence. A poor showing by his allies would signal the waning of his clout and could undermine the pro-China policy he championed throughout his presidency. Conversely, if these candidates secure victories, it would suggest that Duterte’s political brand still holds sway, despite growing public discontent over China’s actions.

This electoral outcome will shape not only the Senate’s composition but also the trajectory of Philippine foreign policy. A diminished Duterte bloc could pave the way for a more assertive stance toward Beijing, aligning with public sentiment that increasingly favors partnerships with countries like the United States and Japan.

The Election Playbook: Recommendations for Candidates and Voters

For Duterte’s Allies: They must adjust to the new political reality by distancing themselves—at least symbolically—from China. Failing to adapt could be politically fatal, with voters unwilling to forgive candidates perceived as compromising national interests.
For the Administration Candidates: The anti-China sentiment presents a clear opportunity for administration candidates to galvanize public support. However, they must avoid complacency and ensure their platforms address both foreign policy and domestic challenges to maintain momentum.
For Filipino Voters: Voters must hold candidates accountable, demanding clear commitments to sovereignty, governance, and national welfare. This election offers a crucial chance to reshape the country’s political future—whether toward a new path or a continued allegiance to old loyalties.

Conclusion: A Political Reckoning on the Horizon

The 2025 midterm elections are shaping up to be a political reckoning not just for Duterte’s allies but for Duterte himself. With the specter of China looming large over the campaign trail, Filipino voters are sending a clear message: sovereignty is non-negotiable. Whether the pro-Duterte candidates succeed or fail will determine not only their personal futures but also the direction of Philippine foreign policy and the enduring influence of Duterte’s political legacy.

The tide is no longer just turning—it’s crashing. Duterte’s allies must decide: will they rise with the wave of change or be drowned by the force of a nation’s discontent?