In the Shadow of Scandal: The Fall of Sara Duterte and the Rise of New Contenders

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C Biraogo — November 4, 2024

SARA Duterte’s political ascent felt inevitable—a force of nature aligned with her father’s legacy. As vice president alongside President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr., she became a symbol of unity, melding two of the Philippines’ most powerful dynasties. Yet, behind the carefully orchestrated alliance of ‘UniTeam,’ fractures have begun to surface, hinting at a rivalry that could shake the foundation of Philippine politics.

The latest numbers from the OCTA Research Group tell a tale of rapidly shifting allegiances. Duterte, who once commanded the highest ratings among the country’s top officials, now finds her approval and trust ratings languishing at 52% and 59%, respectively. Meanwhile, Marcos, despite his own dip in popularity, now outpaces Duterte with 66% satisfaction and 69% trust. Even more telling is that Duterte’s ratings have sunk below those of Senate President Chiz Escudero and House Speaker Martin Romualdez, both of whom were, until recently, seen as secondary players in the national scene.

The Trust Deficit: A Crisis of Transparency

So what happened? Why has the once-formidable Sara Duterte seen a 31-point plunge in her ratings over the past year? Much of it seems to stem from a series of bruising controversies surrounding her use of confidential funds while serving as Secretary of Education. When pressed to clarify her allocation of millions for supposed “youth development” programs, which the military later denied receiving, Duterte’s responses were evasive and, at times, scornful toward her critics. Such defensive posturing only intensified public scrutiny, raising unsettling questions about her stewardship of taxpayer money.

Adding fuel to the fire, revelations emerged of the Office of the Vice President (OVP) allegedly spending P16 million on luxury “safehouses” over an 11-day period. Observers, particularly House members known as the “Young Guns,” argued that Duterte’s lack of transparency might be an Achilles’ heel, turning former allies into critics. This erosion of trust has fueled a groundswell of dissatisfaction, with young lawmakers lamenting her unwillingness to account for her actions—a stark departure from her father’s popular “man of the people” persona.

Rising Power Players: Escudero and Romualdez

While Duterte’s ratings have been battered by scandal, her counterparts—Senate President Escudero and Speaker Romualdez—have followed diverging paths, with each one carefully positioning himself as a steady, reliable figure in Philippine politics. Escudero, whose ratings are at 65% satisfaction and 67% trust, has gained favor by positioning himself as a voice of moderation. His track record of transparency and pragmatic policy proposals resonates with Filipinos fatigued by political intrigue and scandal.

Meanwhile, Speaker Romualdez, often praised as a workaholic committed to legislative efficiency, has garnered rising approval for his no-nonsense leadership. His tireless work ethic has become emblematic of what many Filipinos desire in their government: results-driven governance over divisive rhetoric. Romualdez’s trajectory stands in sharp contrast to Duterte’s increasingly combative stance, as he strengthens alliances while Sara isolates herself—a strategy paying dividends in the court of public opinion.

Crystal Ball Gazing: Bold Predictions

In the next survey cycle, we are likely to see a widening gap in the ratings of Duterte, Escudero, and Romualdez. Unless Duterte confronts her controversies head-on, her ratings could slip further—perhaps dipping into the mid-40% range. Escudero and Romualdez, however, are well-positioned to gain from Duterte’s losses. Escudero’s ratings may climb slightly, buoyed by his moderate appeal, while Romualdez’s could see an uptick as he continues to prioritize legislative productivity over political theatrics.

Recommendations

For Sara Duterte:

Embrace Transparency Proactively: Given the blow to her ratings from unaddressed controversies, Duterte should organize a public address or press conference, clarifying the use of confidential funds. She should also consider permitting an independent audit of her offices’ expenditures. This step would signal a commitment to accountability that could begin to rebuild trust.
Refocus on Policy and Public Service: Shifting focus from controversies to her core platform could help her recapture public support. By championing policies that address urgent social issues—such as education reform, economic stability, or anti-corruption efforts—she could realign herself with the public’s priorities.
Strengthen Her Base through Local Engagement: Reconnecting with local leaders and grassroots supporters, especially in areas loyal to the Duterte name, would allow her to regain some political footing. Holding community town halls and working closely with local officials can reinforce her image as a leader in touch with ordinary Filipinos.

For Chiz Escudero:

Maintain a Moderate, Principled Stance: Escudero’s strength lies in his perception as a moderate voice focused on legislative issues. He should avoid engaging in factionalism and continue positioning himself as a pragmatic, transparent official.
Champion Transparency Legislation: Escudero could introduce or champion new policies for transparent budgeting and government spending oversight. This would bolster his appeal as a reform-minded leader, differentiating him from figures entangled in scandals.
Expand Public Engagement: Escudero could increase his visibility through regular town halls, public Q&A sessions, and media appearances. This could solidify his image as an approachable, responsive leader who values citizen input.

For Martin Romualdez:

Prioritize Legislative Productivity: Romualdez’s leadership style resonates with Filipinos who prioritize efficiency. He should emphasize continued high productivity in Congress, particularly focusing on impactful, widely-supported legislation on economic development and job creation.
Strengthen Alliances Across Political Lines: Romualdez’s ratings benefit from his collaborative, coalition-building approach. Reaching out to various political blocs and maintaining a neutral stance in any escalating Marcos-Duterte rivalry will help him remain a unifying figure.
Position as a Future Statesman: Romualdez can enhance his standing by taking public stances on key national issues like poverty reduction, healthcare, and education. By framing himself as a statesman with a forward-looking vision, he may bolster his image as a trusted leader for future national roles.

For the Filipinos:

Filipinos should continue demanding transparency and accountability from all public officials. Increasing civic engagement, whether through social media, town halls, or community forums, will send a clear message to leaders that the public is closely watching and expects governance that prioritizes people over personal power.

Conclusion

As the political arena shifts, the stakes for these leaders—and for the Filipino people—have reached a breaking point. Sara Duterte’s ability to weather the storms ahead may determine her future as a 2028 hopeful, while Escudero and Romualdez stand at the threshold of a potential political reformation. But beyond these power plays, a larger question looms: will those in power finally prioritize the people they serve, or are they destined to become mere symbols of a chapter in history marked by lost trust? The answer may define the Philippines’ path forward.