The Road to Malacañang: Sara Duterte’s High-Stakes Presidential Play

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — January 16, 2024

IN A political landscape already brimming with intrigue, Vice President Sara Duterte’s revelation of her potential presidential bid for 2028 lands like a thunderclap. Is this a calculated response to shifting tides, or the next chapter in the Duterte dynasty’s dominance? Let’s unravel the motivations and implications of this game-changing announcement.

Behind the Words: Unpacking the Significance of Duterte’s Announcement

Vice President Duterte’s remarks during her Japan trip mark a sharp departure from her earlier disavowals of presidential ambitions. By framing her decision as a response to the country’s perceived “backsliding,” Duterte seeks to position herself as a candidate of reform and a guardian of her father’s controversial legacy. Her language, emphasizing governance challenges and national aspirations, caters to a narrative of urgency and patriotic duty.

However, the shift also reflects tactical messaging. By making the announcement to overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), a politically significant group, Duterte ensures her message reaches a critical electorate with strong ties to family-oriented and pragmatic policies—hallmarks of her father’s administration.

The Shift in Strategy: Unveiling Duterte’s Motivations for a Presidential Run

Several factors likely underpin Duterte’s decision to pivot toward a presidential bid:

Declining Popularity:
- Recent surveys indicate a significant drop in Duterte’s approval and trust ratings. A presidential bid may serve as a calculated move to reframe public perception and galvanize her base.
- Controversies over fund mismanagement and her abrupt resignation from the Department of Education highlight the urgency to reset her public image.
Maintaining Political Relevance:
- A clear declaration of intent keeps Duterte in the political spotlight, staving off perceptions of irrelevance amid emerging contenders and internal factionalism within the Marcos-Duterte alliance.
Legacy and Redemption:
- Duterte’s rhetoric about “fixing governance” suggests an implicit critique of the current administration while defending the accomplishments of her father’s presidency. This dual narrative positions her as a continuation of the Duterte legacy with promises of reform.

A Calculated Move: Examining Duterte’s Strategic Timing and Messaging

The announcement’s timing and tone appear deliberately calculated to address immediate and long-term political goals:

Timing:
- By announcing her intentions early, Duterte tests the waters, gauging public reception while allowing time to course-correct. This timing also diverts attention from recent criticisms and controversies.
Framing:
- Positioning herself as a reformist leader, Duterte appeals to Filipinos dissatisfied with current governance. Her acknowledgment of governance challenges adds credibility to her narrative, fostering empathy and trust.

The Ripple Effect: Potential Consequences of Duterte’s Announcement

While the announcement could re-energize Duterte’s base, it carries risks:

Backlash from Critics:
- Critics may frame her candidacy as opportunistic, exploiting her father’s legacy while avoiding accountability for past controversies.
- The impeachment complaints and declining popularity could further erode her credibility.
Internal Political Dynamics:
- The Marcos-Duterte alliance appears irreparably broken, with Vice President Sara Duterte’s presidential ambitions directly challenging President Marcos Jr.’s dominance. Her announcement is likely to intensify attacks from Marcos allies, who may perceive her candidacy as an existential threat to their hold on power. This rift could force allies to take sides, deepening divisions within existing political coalitions and potentially destabilizing the balance of power within the ruling faction. What was once a unified front may now fragment into competing camps, each vying for influence in a high-stakes struggle for the nation’s future leadership.
Impact on Governance:
- Duterte’s focus on 2028 risks overshadowing her current role, inviting criticism for prioritizing political ambitions over governance responsibilities.

The Art of Political Survival: Strategic Guidance for Navigating the Philippine Arena

For Vice President Sara Duterte:

Rebuild Trust: Address controversies head-on, demonstrating transparency and accountability.
Strengthen Grassroots Support: Engage with marginalized communities and civil society to broaden her appeal beyond traditional Duterte loyalists.
Bridge Political Divides: Reaffirm her alliance with Marcos Jr. to maintain a united front while gradually building her independent platform.

For Duterte’s Allies:

Evaluate Alliances: Balance loyalty with pragmatism. Allies must assess whether continued support for Duterte aligns with their political interests.
Advocate Policy Focus: Encourage Duterte to prioritize tangible achievements as vice president to bolster her credentials for 2028.

For Duterte’s Political Opponents:

Offer Clear Alternatives: Capitalize on Duterte’s vulnerabilities by presenting credible, forward-looking policies.
Avoid Personal Attacks: Focus critiques on governance failures rather than personal controversies to maintain credibility.

Beyond Politics: The Impact of Duterte’s Announcement on the Filipino People

Duterte’s announcement highlights a pivotal moment for Philippine democracy. The tension between reformist rhetoric and entrenched political interests underscores the need for an informed electorate that prioritizes substance over spectacle. As 2028 approaches, citizens must critically evaluate candidates’ platforms and legacies, demanding accountability and vision for a sustainable future.

Conclusion

As Sara Duterte positions herself for a 2028 run, one question looms: What kind of leader does the Philippines truly need? Her journey will test not only her political acumen but also the nation’s willingness to confront its past and redefine its future. For Filipinos, this is a moment not just to watch, but to decide—what do we demand of those who seek to lead us?