The Pulse vs. SWS Showdown: What Two Surveys Reveal About the 2025 Senate Battle

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — February 12, 2025

ELECTIONS are supposed to be predictable—until they aren’t. Two of the Philippines’ most trusted polling firms, Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations (SWS), just released surveys on the 2025 Senate race. But instead of confirming each other’s findings, they tell strikingly different stories. The gaps aren’t just statistical noise; they hint at deeper forces shaping voter sentiment. What’s behind this divide, and what does it mean for the elections ahead? Let’s unpack the numbers—and the narratives they create.

When Numbers Clash: The Role of Methodology and Timing in Candidate Rankings

At first glance, the Pulse Asia and SWS surveys share a few consistent takeaways. Erwin Tulfo dominates both, albeit with different margins—62.8% in Pulse Asia versus 45% in SWS. Bong Go and Tito Sotto remain among the frontrunners, though their exact rankings shift. Beyond this, however, the rankings diverge significantly.

Lito Lapid exemplifies this discrepancy. Pulse Asia places him in the precarious 10th-14th range, while SWS catapults him to 3rd-4th with 37%. Meanwhile, Imee Marcos enjoys a strong 4th-12th ranking in Pulse Asia but drops to 14th in SWS. These shifts raise fundamental questions: What accounts for these differences?

One major factor is survey methodology. Pulse Asia interviewed 2,400 respondents with a ±2% margin of error, while SWS surveyed 1,800 respondents with a ±2.31% margin of error. While both employ face-to-face interviews, slight differences in geographic distribution, weighting, and question framing can produce varied results.

Timing also plays a role. Pulse Asia conducted its survey from January 18-25, while SWS ran its poll from January 17-20. This seemingly small gap is crucial, as major political events—including Marcos Jr.’s removal of both Dutertes from the National Security Council—unfolded between these dates. If voter sentiments shifted rapidly, one poll may have captured a moment the other missed.

The President’s Picks: Assessing the Ups and Downs of Marcos-Backed Candidacies

Both surveys affirm the administration’s dominance: eight to ten candidates backed by Marcos Jr. remain within striking distance of the “Magic 12.” However, Pulse Asia suggests an even stronger showing, with 10 of the 14 top contenders coming from the president’s slate, while SWS presents a slightly weaker position.

The starkest contrast is in Imee Marcos’ ranking. Pulse Asia’s 4th-12th range suggests a solid foothold, while SWS relegates her to 14th place, hinting at a vulnerability despite her aggressive ad spending. Her rise in Pulse Asia—jumping 5.8 percentage points since November—suggests that her media blitz is working, but SWS indicates that this momentum is not universal.

Meanwhile, Lito Lapid’s meteoric rise in SWS (from 11th to 3rd-4th) is unmatched in Pulse Asia, where he barely clings to the winners’ circle. This discrepancy could be due to regional variations in sample distribution—Lapid has a loyal base in Luzon, where SWS may have had stronger representation.

The one consistent trend? The administration’s hold over the Senate race is far from unshakable. Several opposition-leaning figures, including Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino, are creeping up the rankings, with Pangilinan breaking into SWS’s top 12.

Shifting Dynamics: The Pulse Asia November-January Evolution

Pulse Asia’s comparison between November 2024 and January 2025 provides a clearer picture of momentum shifts.

Biggest Gainer: Imee Marcos (+5.8 points) — Her ad spending appears to be yielding dividends.
Biggest Losers: Manny Pacquiao and Bong Go — Pacquiao dropped in both percentage and rank, slipping from 5-9 to 7-14, a sign that nostalgia for his Senate tenure may be wearing off. Go, Rodrigo Duterte’s loyal lieutenant, saw a dip in support.
Bato dela Rosa’s Surge (+4.3 points) — His improvement suggests that Duterte loyalists, shaken by recent political turmoil, may be consolidating behind him.

These shifts suggest that money, media presence, and Duterte-Marcos tensions are influencing voter movement. Candidates who remain highly visible, either through political advertisements (Imee Marcos) or through media exposure (Lito Lapid), are gaining ground, while those relying solely on past credentials (Pacquiao, Go) are faltering.

Key Factors Influencing Voter Preferences

Name Recall & Media Presence — The Tulfo brothers, Willie Revillame, and Lapid prove that media exposure translates into electoral viability. This is a race where television personalities have as much sway as seasoned lawmakers.
Political Endorsements & Coalition Strength — Marcos-backed candidates still dominate, but cracks are forming. The Duterte-Marcos split could further erode their support.
Advertising Spending — Imee Marcos’ leap suggests that well-funded campaigns matter, especially in a fragmented race.
Scandals and Political Developments — The unfolding impeachment case against Sara Duterte, Marcos Jr.’s budget decisions, and criminal charges against Rodrigo Duterte all have potential ripple effects that are yet to fully materialize.

The Road to Election Day: Unpacking the Potential Outcomes and Uncertainties

If these polls are any indication, the 2025 Senate race is fluid, volatile, and highly susceptible to late-game shifts. A few scenarios could unfold:

The Administration Maintains Dominance — If Marcos Jr. successfully consolidates support and opposition figures fail to capitalize on discontent, his slate could dominate.
The Duterte Factor Reconfigures the Race — If the impeachment proceedings against Sara Duterte escalate, Duterte loyalists could become more politically aggressive, boosting figures like Bato dela Rosa.
Media Personalities Disrupt Traditional Politics — The strong showings of Tulfo, Revillame, and Lapid suggest that celebrity status remains a powerful electoral currency, potentially displacing career politicians.
An Opposition Resurgence? — If discontent over governance grows, opposition figures like Pangilinan and Aquino could gain momentum in the final months.

Final Insights & Strategic Recommendations

These surveys should be read not as definitive forecasts but as snapshots of an electorate still in flux. Future polls should:

Examine regional variations more closely to understand why candidates like Lapid perform dramatically differently across firms.
Track Duterte-Marcos tensions—will Duterte loyalists break away further from Marcos-endorsed candidates?
Monitor media spending trends—do high-profile ad campaigns continue to boost candidates, or does voter fatigue set in?

With the campaign period now officially underway, expect shifting tides, unexpected alliances, and last-minute game-changers. If these polls prove anything, it’s that the 2025 Senate race is still very much up for grabs.