Divided We Fall: The Dangerous Politics of the Marcos-Duterte Feud

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — February 16, 2025

IN THE Philippines, the fault lines of a political power struggle are widening, threatening to destabilize the very core of the nation. What was once an internal rift between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte now holds the potential to unravel the country’s fragile democracy. If history has taught us anything, it’s that such conflicts don’t stay contained—they spiral out of control.

A Divide Waiting to Be Exploited

The warning from Juan Ponce Enrile, the Chief Presidential Legal Counsel, isn’t just about political drama. It’s a flashing red light signaling how fragile the situation has become. He cautioned that a third party could manipulate this conflict, exacerbating instability. But who stands to gain from a fractured government?

The Opposition: Political adversaries will use this divide to frame Marcos Jr. as weak and ineffective. If they succeed, they could sway public sentiment in their favor ahead of 2025’s midterm elections.
Ambitious Insiders: Allies within both camps may play double agents, using the conflict to jockey for more power. Could a new kingmaker emerge from the wreckage?
Foreign Powers: Geopolitical rivals could fuel instability to weaken Manila’s strategic position. China, which has a vested interest in the South China Sea, might see an opportunity to test the waters—both figuratively and literally.
Criminal Networks: Political chaos creates opportunities for drug syndicates, corrupt officials, and warlords to expand their influence. When the government is distracted, law enforcement weakens.

Timeless Wisdom: Insights from History

History tells us that when internal divisions deepen, vultures circle. The Roman Republic fell when power struggles between elites led to civil war. The English Civil War, the French Revolution, even the American Civil War—all were fueled by leadership rifts that outsiders exploited. The Philippines has its own painful precedent: the People Power Revolutions of 1986 and 2001, both fueled by elite political betrayals. The question now is whether this latest rift will end in reconciliation or another seismic political shift.

When Politics Fails: The High Stakes of Instability

If this conflict escalates, the effects will be felt far beyond the halls of Malacañang. A paralyzed government means:

Weakened governance: Policy-making grinds to a halt as factions battle for control.
Economic fallout: Investors flee from uncertainty, slowing job growth and weakening the peso.
Security threats: Insurgent groups and criminal networks exploit political turmoil to expand their reach.

The Road Ahead: Navigating the Political Storm

It’s easy to point fingers, but solutions require bold action. The Marcos and Duterte camps must recognize that their battle isn’t just about them—it’s about the country’s future. Here’s what needs to happen:

Call for Dialogue, Not War: If Marcos Jr. and Duterte want to be seen as true leaders, they need to publicly commit to dialogue. A mediator—perhaps a respected elder statesman—could facilitate this.
Institutional Reforms: The Philippines needs stronger safeguards against political infighting. The separation of powers must be reinforced so that government functions don’t collapse when rival factions clash.
Civic Engagement: The public must demand accountability. Civil society groups, journalists, and everyday Filipinos need to push for transparency and reject divisive rhetoric.
Geopolitical Strategy: The Philippines must not allow foreign interests to dictate its fate. Strengthening regional alliances and reinforcing national security should be priorities.

The Knife’s Edge

The Philippines has seen this movie before, and the ending is rarely happy when political elites put their egos above the nation’s stability. The choice is stark: compromise or chaos. The world is watching. The people are waiting. The question is—will the country’s leaders rise above personal ambition to put the Philippines first?