When a Dynasty Bleeds: The Marcos Fracture That Could Break a Nation

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — March 24, 2025

A MISSING sibling at a family dinner raises eyebrows. A missing figure in the nation’s political discourse raises alarms. In both cases, silence isn’t just awkward—it’s telling. And in the high-stakes arena of Philippine politics, what isn’t said can be more revealing than what is.

On March 22, 2025, in Sta. Rosa, Laguna, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. stood before a roaring crowd, rallying support for his Alyansa Para Sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition’s “11 senatorial candidates.” His elder sister, Senator Imee Marcos, was nowhere in his words—omitted for the second time in as many days. Was this a slip of the tongue, or the opening salvo in a dynastic unraveling? As the 2025 midterm elections loom, the Marcos family, once a monolith of political power, teeters on the edge of fracture, and with it, the future of a nation hangs in suspense.

This is no mere sibling spat. It’s a saga of loyalty tested, alliances strained, and a rivalry—Marcos versus Duterte—that threatens to redraw the fault lines of Philippine democracy. What does it mean when a president sidelines his own sister? Can Imee survive the electoral wilderness alone? And what does this portend for a country where dynasties have long held sway? Let’s peel back the layers of this unfolding drama, where every omission whispers a louder truth.

Unmasking the Power Play: What’s Really Happening?

Blood Betrayal or Cold Calculus?

The facts are stark. On March 22, 2025, in Laguna, Bongbong Marcos spoke of “11 candidates” for the Alyansa slate, a number echoed in Cavite the day prior. Imee, a reelectionist senator and original member of the 12-person lineup announced in September 2024, was conspicuously absent from his rhetoric. X posts from @IanIslander3 captured his words: “Huwag nating gawing alyansa lamang nitong 10, 11 na tao”—11 candidates, not 12. The Manila Times and Philstar.com confirmed this wasn’t a one-off; it’s a pattern. Yet, Marcos had claimed on September 30, 2024, via GMA News, that Imee remained supported by the coalition despite her independent run. So why the silence now?

Is this a family feud spilling into the public square? Imee’s decision to bolt the Alyansa slate on September 28, 2024, citing her father Ferdinand Sr.’s legacy, hinted at ideological divergence. Her vocal defense of Rodrigo Duterte—whose arrest and ICC extradition she protested by skipping a Leyte rally on March 14—further complicates the narrative. Bongbong’s administration executed that arrest, a move that enraged the Duterte camp and placed Imee in an awkward straddle between kin and ally. Perhaps this is personal—a brother’s resentment toward a sister who won’t toe the line. Or perhaps it’s colder, more calculated: a president pruning a coalition of liabilities to sharpen its electoral edge. Imee’s 30.9% Pulse Asia rating in February 2025, placing her 14th, suggests she’s no sure bet. Why risk the family name on a faltering horse?

Imee’s Last Stand: Triumph or Tragedy?

Imee Marcos is no stranger to the spotlight, but this time, she’s cast herself as the lone warrior. Her independent candidacy, announced with defiance, was meant to echo her father’s maverick spirit. Yet, the numbers tell a grimmer tale. Over P1 billion spent on ads from January to September 2024 (PCIJ.org, February 17) has bought her little traction—middling survey results and X chatter (@philipalegre, March 17) branding her a “fence-sitter.” Without Alyansa’s machinery, can she claw her way into the Senate’s “Magic 12”?

Her 2019 win leaned on Marcos clout and Duterte’s blessing, twin pillars now wobbling. Bongbong’s omission signals a withdrawal of familial support, while Duterte’s legal woes and the rise of his own slate—Bong Go, Ronald dela Rosa—dilute her appeal among his loyalists. Ilocos Norte remains her stronghold, but its 400,000 voters pale against Calabarzon’s 8.8 million, where Marcos is doubling down. Imee’s fate hinges on a razor’s edge: can she rally a coalition of the disaffected—Duterte diehards, anti-Marcos skeptics—before the May 2025 ballots are cast?

Clash of Titans: Marcos and Duterte Face Off

Zoom out, and Imee’s plight is a thread in a larger tapestry: the Marcos-Duterte rupture. The UniTeam that swept Bongbong and Sara Duterte to victory in 2022 is a fading memory, replaced by a cold war of dynasties. Rodrigo’s arrest shattered the truce, with Imee’s loyalty to him clashing against her brother’s agenda. Sara’s impeachment looms as a subplot, her Davao base bristling against Manila’s moves. Alyansa’s “11 bets” narrative—streamlined, Marcos-centric—seems a deliberate pivot away from Duterte’s shadow, but at what cost?

The coalition’s cohesion frays with every absence. Camille Villar’s no-shows (illness, scheduling) compound the optics of disarray, yet Alyansa holds a polling edge—nine of 13 “statistical winners” per Pulse Asia, March 13. Marcos bets on stars like Manny Pacquiao and Erwin Tulfo to carry the day, but Imee’s independent run risks splitting votes in key regions. The Duterte camp, meanwhile, plots its counterstrike, a regional showdown brewing between Ilocos and Davao. Who blinks first in this high-stakes stare-down?

The Dynasty’s Dark Waltz: Power’s Unyielding Grip

Beneath it all lies the specter of dynastic politics, as Filipino as adobo and as divisive as a typhoon. The Marcos siblings’ public split—Bongbong’s polish versus Imee’s defiance—lays bare the machinery of family rule. Critics like Makabayan decry it as a “game of billionaires” (PCIJ.org, February 17), yet voters keep returning to familiar names. Alyansa’s slate, packed with heirs and heavyweights, mirrors this reality. Can democracy thrive when bloodlines dictate ballots, or is this just the Philippines’ eternal script?

The Ripple Effect: Will the Nation Sink or Soar?

The 2025 midterms are more than a Senate race—they’re a referendum on Bongbong Marcos’s presidency and a preview of 2028’s presidential clash. Sidelining Imee bolsters his “Bagong Pilipinas” vision—competence over chaos—but risks alienating Ilocano voters and emboldening Duterte’s counteroffensive. A fractured UniTeam could yield a splintered Senate, stalling Marcos’s infrastructure and economic plans. Internationally, the Marcos-Duterte feud reverberates: a Philippines distracted by infighting may falter in asserting its South China Sea claims or courting foreign investment.

Imee’s marginalization could galvanize anti-dynasty voices, though their electoral clout remains unproven. Her survival—or demise—will signal whether independence can trump machinery in a system rigged for the connected. And the Marcos-Duterte rift? It’s a slow burn toward 2028, with Sara Duterte’s ambitions and her father’s legacy as kindling. The world watches as Manila’s power players dance on a tightrope, one misstep from a fall.

Battle Plans: How to Win the War Ahead

For the Marcos Machine: Tighten the Reins

Clarify Imee’s Fate: Ambiguity breeds weakness. Either formally cut ties with Imee or reintegrate her with a clear role—half-measures erode credibility. A unified front, even if staged, projects strength.
Conquer Calabarzon: With 8.8 million voters, this region is the midterm’s prize. Flood it with resources, spotlight winning candidates, and sidestep Duterte provocations to lock in Marcos’s base.
Defang Duterte’s Ghost: Frame Rodrigo’s arrest as justice, not betrayal, to blunt his martyr appeal. A deft PR campaign could turn a liability into a leadership win.

For Imee’s Rebellion: Fight or Fade

Forge Your Sword: Independence is a slogan, not a strategy. Craft a platform—anti-elite populism or Duterte-style grit—that resonates beyond Ilocos. Vague loyalty won’t cut it.
Rally the Outcasts: Target voters sour on both Marcos and Duterte—urban youth, rural poor—with a message of renewal. Small rallies and digital ads can stretch that P1 billion further.
Choose Your War: Mend fences with Bongbong for a lifeline, or lean hard into Duterte’s camp and risk it all. Playing both sides is a losing hand—pick a lane.

For the Wider Arena: Seize the Chaos

Opposition Unleashed: Exploit the Marcos-Duterte split with a united front—Makabayan, liberals, independents. A coherent alternative could siphon votes from a divided elite.
People’s Voice: Amplify the dynasty debate. Grassroots campaigns exposing campaign spending (like Imee’s P1 billion) could shift public sentiment, even if incrementally.
Duterte’s Revenge: Rally behind a single slate to maximize impact. Fragmentation dilutes their clout—unity is their only shot at vengeance.

The Final Reckoning: Legacy’s Long Shadow

In the humid night air of Sta. Rosa, as Bongbong Marcos’s voice carried over the crowd, the absence of Imee’s name was a quiet thunderclap—a signal that even the mightiest dynasties bend under the weight of ambition and betrayal. This isn’t just about a sister scorned or a brother’s calculus; it’s about a nation wrestling with its past to shape its future. Can Imee defy the odds, a lone figure against the machine? Will Bongbong’s gamble secure his legacy, or unravel it?

The 2025 midterms will answer these questions, but the lesson is already clear: in the Philippines, power is a family affair—until it isn’t. As the ballots near, one truth lingers like smoke over Manila Bay: in the game of dynasties, loyalty is a currency, and trust a luxury few can afford. The Marcos saga is far from over, and the world holds its breath for the next chapter.