By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — April 16, 2025

THE International Criminal Court (ICC) has its sights set on Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, the erstwhile top cop who turned Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war rhetoric into a blood-soaked reality. A Malaya Business Insight report (April 14, 2025) quotes ICC Assistant to Counsel Kristina Conti predicting arrest warrants for Dela Rosa and others in weeks, framing them as cogs in Duterte’s machine of alleged crimes against humanity. With Duterte already cooling his heels in The Hague for 43 murders, the question isn’t if the ICC will come for his lieutenants but how hard they’ll fight to stay out of the dock. Let’s dissect the legal quagmire, ethical rot, and political fallout with the precision of a tokhang raid—minus the body bags.

Legal Analysis: Can the ICC Still Haunt Manila?

Jurisdiction: The Ghost of Rome Statute Past

The Philippines bolted from the Rome Statute in 2019, but the ICC isn’t letting go that easily. Article 12(1) grants the court jurisdiction over crimes committed on a state party’s territory, and since the Philippines was a member from 2011 to 2019, the drug war’s early carnage falls squarely in The Hague’s wheelhouse. Article 127(2) is blunt: withdrawal doesn’t erase obligations for crimes committed while a party, nor does it halt ongoing probes. The Philippine Supreme Court drove this home in its 2021 ruling (Pangilinan v. Cayetano, SCRA 2021-05), declaring that Manila must cooperate with ICC cases predating the exit. Translation: Bato can’t hide behind sovereignty when the ink on the withdrawal notice doesn’t erase the bloodstains.^[1]

Charges: Murder, Torture, and the “Indirect Co-Perpetrator” Trap

The ICC’s case hinges on Article 7(1)(a), which defines murder as a crime against humanity when part of a “widespread or systematic attack” against civilians. Duterte’s warrant cites 43 murders from 2011–2019, tied to Oplan Tokhang and the Davao Death Squad (DDS). Conti’s claim that Dela Rosa and others were “indirect co-perpetrators” invokes Article 25(3)(a), holding those liable who contribute intentionally to a group’s criminal plan. As PNP chief, Dela Rosa didn’t just follow orders—he engineered Tokhang’s “knock and plead” facade, which human rights groups say masked extrajudicial killings (EJKs) numbering 6,200 to 30,000.^[2] The ICC’s Pre-Trial Chamber initially sidelined torture and rape charges against Duterte, but spokesperson Fadi El Abdallah hinted more could follow, potentially ensnaring Dela Rosa if evidence ties him to broader abuses.^[3]

Domestic Law: Supreme Court Petitions and Bato’s Flip-Flopping

Duterte and Dela Rosa’s pending Supreme Court petition—filed March 11, 2025—argues ICC cooperation violates sovereignty and cites Article 127 to claim Manila’s hands are clean post-2019. But the Court’s 2021 precedent laughs in their face, and recent rulings (March 2025) denied temporary restraining orders, signaling judicial reluctance to defy international law.^[4] Dela Rosa’s waffling—vowing to surrender, then seeking Senate sanctuary, now musing about hiding—exposes a procedural mess. Philippine law (R.A. 9851) mirrors ICC crimes but lacks robust enforcement, leaving domestic courts toothless against high-profile figures. Bato’s Senate privilege under Article VI, Section 11 of the 1987 Constitution shields him from arrest for minor offenses during sessions, but crimes against humanity? That’s a Hague-sized loophole.^[5]

Ethical & Human Rights Critique: The “Moral Compass” Cop-Out

Tokhang’s Bloody Ledger vs. Global Standards

Oplan Tokhang wasn’t a policy—it was a massacre with a badge. Human Rights Watch pegs drug war deaths at over 27,000, many gunned down in slums under the “nanlaban” (fought back) pretext.^[6] This flouts the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) Article 3 (right to life) and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) Articles 6 (no arbitrary killing) and 7 (no torture). The Philippine Code of Professional Responsibility for lawyers—applicable to state actors like Duterte—demands upholding human rights (Canon 1.01), yet Dela Rosa’s PNP churned out body counts like a cartel scorecard.^[7] Ethically, following orders doesn’t absolve you when those orders scream “genocide lite.”

The “Cabal” Defense: Can Bato Outrun The Hague?

Conti’s “moral compass” jab paints Duterte as the capo steering a cabal of killers, with Dela Rosa as his loyal enforcer. But claiming “I was just following orders” sank at Nuremberg and won’t float here. The ICC’s Al Bashir case (ICC-02/05-01/09) shredded head-of-state immunity, and while Dela Rosa’s no president, his role as Tokhang’s architect makes him a prime target under Article 25.^[8] The Kenyatta case (ICC-01/09-02/11) offers a cautionary tale—charges collapsed for lack of evidence, not because subordinates dodged blame.^[9] Dela Rosa’s Senate seat and tough-guy bravado can’t shield him if witnesses (like ex-hitman Arturo Lascañas) tie him to DDS-style executions.^[10]

Political & Strategic Implications: A Nation Divided, A World Watching

Domestic Drama: Bato’s Reelection Tightrope

Dela Rosa’s Senate bid hangs by a thread. A February 2025 Social Weather Stations poll showed 51% of Filipinos want drug war accountability, but Duterte’s arrest has rallied loyalists crying “sovereignty!”^[11] Bato’s flip-flops—surrender, Senate refuge, now “I’ll hide”—make him look less like a rock (his nickname) and more like a pebble skittering from justice. If warrants drop before the May 2025 midterms, expect Duterte allies to weaponize anti-ICC rhetoric, painting Marcos Jr.’s cooperation as betrayal. Yet, public fatigue with drug war excuses could sink Bato’s campaign faster than a tokhang raid gone wrong.

International Chessboard: Friend or Foe to The Hague?

Marcos Jr.’s pivot to ICC compliance—after years of defiance—scores points with the EU and UN, who’ve long decried the drug war’s body count.^[12] Human Rights Watch called Duterte’s arrest a “historic step,” and cooperation could unlock aid or trade perks.^[13] But it’s a tightrope: China, cozy with Duterte, and the U.S., perpetually ICC-skeptical, might bristle at Manila’s Hague honeymoon. The Philippines risks alienating allies who see the ICC as a Western cudgel, especially if Dela Rosa’s arrest fuels regional cries of neo-colonialism.

Recommendations: Steering Clear of the Next Bloodbath

1. Legal: Hybrid Tribunal for Complementarity
   The ICC’s Article 17 complementarity principle lets domestic courts take precedence if they’re willing and able. The Philippines should establish a hybrid tribunal—local judges with UN oversight—to try drug war cases. It sidesteps sovereignty gripes while ensuring justice isn’t a Hague exclusive. Model it on Sierra Leone’s Special Court: transparent, victim-focused, and less likely to be derailed by Manila’s politicos.^[14]
2. Policy: Independent Police Oversight
   Tokhang thrived because the PNP answered to Duterte, not the law. Create an independent commission—think Hong Kong’s IPCC but with teeth—to audit police operations, mandate body cams, and prosecute EJKs. Tie funding to compliance to keep cops honest.^[15]
3. Civil Society: Amplify Victim Voices
   NGOs like Karapatan should lead truth-telling campaigns, collecting survivor testimonies to pressure courts and shame officials. Pair this with EU-funded legal aid for families, ensuring the ICC isn’t their only shot at justice.
4. Government: Transparent ICC Cooperation
   Marcos Jr. should publish a clear policy on ICC compliance, detailing how arrests align with international law. Opacity fuels Duterte’s “kidnapping” narrative—clarity starves it.
5. ICC: Fast-Track Evidence Collection
   The Hague must secure witnesses (e.g., Lascañas) and PNP records before they “disappear.” Kenyatta’s collapse shows evidence is king—don’t let Dela Rosa slip through on a technicality.

Conclusion: No Hiding from The Hague

Duterte’s “capo” theory might’ve rallied his base, but it’s a legal death sentence for his inner circle. The ICC’s jurisdiction is ironclad, Dela Rosa’s role in Tokhang undeniable, and the Philippines’ ethical breaches a global embarrassment. Politically, warrants could fracture Manila’s elite while reshaping its world stage cred. Bato can run—Senate hideouts, Davao bolt-holes—but the Hague’s long arm doesn’t tire. The real question? Will the Philippines learn from this mess or just reload for the next drug war?

Footnotes

1. Rome Statute, Art. 12, 127; Pangilinan v. Cayetano, SCRA 2021-05.
2. Human Rights Watch, “Philippines: Duterte Arrested on ICC Warrant,” March 12, 2025.
3. Malaya Business Insight, April 14, 2025.
4. Supreme Court Statement, March 13, 2025.
5. 1987 Constitution, Art. VI, Sec. 11; R.A. 9851.
6. Human Rights Watch, supra note 2.
7. Code of Professional Responsibility, Canon 1.01; ICCPR, Arts. 6–7.
8. Prosecutor v. Al Bashir, ICC-02/05-01/09.
9. Prosecutor v. Kenyatta, ICC-01/09-02/11.
10. Rappler, “Dela Rosa Confirms Ignoring ICC Notices,” October 3, 2024.
11. Social Weather Stations, February 2025.
12. Reuters, “Philippines Sends Duterte to ICC,” March 12, 2025.
13. Human Rights Watch, supra note 2.
14. Rome Statute, Art. 17; Sierra Leone Special Court Statute.
15. Hong Kong Independent Police Complaints Council, Annual Report 2023.