Philippine Power Play: Marcos’s Plunge, Duterte’s Surge, and a Nation at the Edge

By Louis ‘Barok’ C Biraogo — April 18, 2025

IN Manila’s restless streets, a political earthquake is reshaping the Philippines. The March 2025 Pulse Asia survey isn’t just data—it’s a pulse-pounding saga of trust shattered and ambition unleashed. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s approval has nosedived to 25%, a 17-point collapse since February, with distrust spiking to 54%. Meanwhile, Vice President Sara Duterte rides a wave of adoration, her 61% trust rating a lighthouse in the storm. This is no ordinary poll; it’s a high-stakes drama where economic anguish, cunning strategies, and dynastic rivalries could rewrite the nation’s destiny. Will Marcos rise from the ashes? Or is Duterte’s quiet takeover already sealed?

Flashpoint: A Country on the Brink

The Philippines teeters on a knife’s edge. Inflation, deemed urgent by 69% of Filipinos, is Marcos’s Achilles’ heel, with 79% rejecting his response. Stagnant wages, persistent poverty, and corruption scandals fuel a narrative of a leader adrift. Yet, his 51% approval for calamity response reveals a paradox: a president who dazzles in crises but falters on daily struggles.

Enter Sara Duterte, whose meteoric rise—59% approval, up 7 points—capitalizes on this divide. She’s not just popular; she’s a predator circling a wounded administration. The May 2025 midterms loom like a storm cloud, and with them, the prospect of a Duterte-led renaissance. If inflation breaches 10% by June, could she push for snap elections—and seize the throne?

Battle Lines: The Key Players Dissected

Ferdinand Marcos Jr.: A Leader Under Siege

Strengths:

Commands the presidency’s arsenal—budget, military, global clout.
His 2022 landslide and family name still resonate, especially in Ilocos heartlands.

Weaknesses:

Legitimacy is crumbling. Approval and trust at 25% signal a crisis, with Mindanao (4% trust) all but lost.
Failure to curb inflation (79% disapproval) and boost wages (48% disapproval) casts him as aloof, a diplomat out of step with populist cries.

Opportunities:

A daring reset—dumping underperforming allies, hiking wages, or targeting rice cartels—could stem the tide.
His calamity response (51% approval) proves he can shine when the stakes are high.

Threats:

Risks lame-duck status. Duterte’s ascendance could splinter his coalition.
Economic shocks or protests might ignite a broader rebellion, with opposition figures like Raffy Tulfo poised to pounce.

Marcos’s fall traces to a strategic blunder: he banked on global summits and megaprojects to define his legacy, ignoring skyrocketing prices and empty wallets. His allies, including House Speaker Martin Romualdez, face challenges that test the administration’s cohesion.

Sara Duterte: The Mastermind Ascendant

Strengths:

61% trust and 59% approval crown her the nation’s darling.
Near-unanimous Mindanao support (97% trust) and NCR gains (+22% approval) show a widening base.
A chameleon, sidestepping Marcos’s economic fallout with surgical precision.

Weaknesses:

Her father’s drug war—thousands dead, now under ICC scrutiny—lurks as a potential trap.
Her national policy vision remains vague, leaning on education and regional clout over a bold agenda.

Opportunities:

Can cement her anti-Marcos brand: practical, populist, free of Manila’s elite taint.
Impeachment survival and Senate allies like Bong Go (61.9% voter preference) position her to dominate midterms and eye 2028—or earlier.

Threats:

Moving too fast could alienate Marcos loyalists.
If seen as overly opportunistic, urban voters might balk.
Scrutiny of her family’s past could also dent her halo.

Duterte’s ascent is a riddle wrapped in a triumph. Linked to a brutal dynasty, she thrives by hovering above the chaos, a phoenix reborn. Her June 2024 cabinet exit was a brilliant gambit, signaling independence without declaring war. Why does she dominate? Filipinos see her as action over promises, a lighthouse in a fog of failure.

Francis Escudero: The Silent Spectator

Strengths:

38% trust and 39% approval, though slipping, keep him viable.
Neutrality in the Marcos-Duterte clash offers flexibility.
High undecided ratings (44%) hint at untapped potential.

Weaknesses:

Low profile is his downfall. Drops in trust (-9 points) and approval (-8 points) reflect a leader too cautious, fading into the Senate’s shadows.
Neither adored nor despised—just overlooked.

Opportunities:

Could seize the stage with anti-corruption probes or wage reforms, wooing moderates weary of dynastic drama.
Aligning with a third force could make him a power broker.

Threats:

Inaction courts obscurity. If Duterte or opposition stars like Tulfo gain traction, Escudero’s middle path could become a dead end.

Escudero’s neutrality, once a shield, now feels like surrender. In a polarized nation, his silence is deafening. Why hasn’t he exploited Marcos’s woes? He’s either waiting for the perfect moment—or simply outmaneuvered.

Martin Romualdez: The Loyal Lieutenant

Strengths:

Steers the House, wielding legislative influence and Marcos’s trust as his cousin.
Patronage network keeps allies in check.

Weaknesses:

With 14% approval and 57% distrust, Romualdez struggles to connect broadly.
54% disapproval reflects perceptions of being too tied to Manila’s elite, though his role is more complex than critics allow.

Opportunities:

Spearheading populist laws—like a wage hike—could reshape his image.
A strategic pivot to grassroots engagement might soften public skepticism.

Threats:

Challenges risk amplifying Marcos’s troubles.
If his profile doesn’t improve, he could face internal House tensions or calls for change.

Romualdez’s loyalty to Marcos is both his strength and his burden. His role in probing Duterte’s funds aimed to protect the administration but backfired, boosting her victim narrative. Why does he endure? His strategic value to Marcos and lack of clear successors keep him in place.

Unraveled Enigmas: The Puzzles of Power

Why does Sara Duterte soar despite her father’s drug war? She’s not her father’s shadow—she’s his reinvention. Filipinos embrace her competence, forgiving her past as they reject Marcos’s present. Her impeachment, far from a scar, became a rallying cry, pitting her against a “vindictive” House.

Marcos’s 51% calamity approval, meanwhile, is a fleeting lifeline, overshadowed by his economic failures. Filipinos applaud his crisis heroics but resent his inaction on rice and wages. This divide—crisis flair versus daily despair—defines his peril.

Romualdez’s probes, meant to curb Duterte, instead fueled her martyr status, while Escudero’s silence let the titans steal the spotlight. The enigma? In a nation craving hope, Duterte’s defiance and Marcos’s missteps resonate loudest.

Endgame: Scenarios That Could Ignite

The Philippines is a powder keg, and March 2025 is the fuse. Here’s what might erupt:

Duterte’s Midterm Domination (65% Likelihood):

Her Senate allies—Bong Go, Ronald dela Rosa—sweep May 2025, giving her clout to shape policy or stall Marcos.
If inflation worsens, she could strengthen her national influence, positioning herself as a leading voice for change.

Marcos’s Bold Counterstrike (25% Likelihood):

To avoid irrelevance, Marcos ousts underperforming allies, unveils a populist budget, and seeks a Duterte truce.
Success depends on slashing inflation—a steep challenge amid global pressures and rice shortages.

Opposition’s Surprise Surge (10% Likelihood):

Figures like Tulfo or Grace Poe exploit the turmoil, uniting anti-Marcos and anti-Duterte voters.
A wildcard could emerge if Escudero picks a side.

Time is running out. If inflation hits 10% by June, Duterte’s ascent accelerates. If Marcos doesn’t pivot, he’ll be a footnote in a nation dPublicusemanding change. The Philippines isn’t just watching a political thriller—it’s starring in one, and the climax could be explosive.

Sources: Pulse Asia March 2025 Ulat ng Bayan Survey; Rappler, April 11, 2025; Publicus Asia, April 1, 2025.