China’s Hidden Hand: The Threat to Philippine Democracy in 2025

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — April 27, 2025

IN A modest barangay in Quezon City, Nora Dela Cruz, a 62-year-old schoolteacher, sifts through her Facebook feed, her eyes narrowing at posts decrying the U.S.-Philippine Balikatan exercises as a peril to peace in the South China Sea. The messages, cloaked in nationalist zeal, urge her to back candidates promising “stability” over “foreign entanglements.” Nora, a voter in the May 2025 midterm elections, senses something amiss. The words feel orchestrated, foreign. She wonders: Who’s pulling these digital strings? Her unease mirrors a national anxiety—that China, a rising shadow over the Pacific, is meddling in the Philippines’ democratic soul.

On April 24, 2025, the National Security Council (NSC) dropped a bombshell: There are “indications” of Chinese interference in the upcoming elections, a revelation that has jolted Manila’s political landscape. NSC Assistant Director General Jonathan Malaya, testifying before a Senate panel, accused Beijing of deploying state-sponsored “information operations” through local proxies to tilt the vote toward pro-China candidates and against those defending Philippine sovereignty in the South China Sea. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has ordered a probe, and the nation braces for answers. But what does this mean for a people fiercely protective of their hard-won democracy? And how must the Philippines, and the global community, respond to safeguard it?

Unmasking the Puppet Strings: The Evidence of Interference

The NSC’s accusations are grave but cloaked in uncertainty. Malaya pointed to social media narratives—such as claims that the Balikatan exercises threaten regional stability—that echo Beijing’s rhetoric and are amplified by local “proxies.” A Pulse Asia survey from October 2024 shows 70% of Filipinos would reject pro-China candidates, suggesting these campaigns target a wary public. Senator Francis Tolentino, leading the Senate inquiry, presented documents alleging the Chinese Embassy in Manila hired a local PR firm in 2023 to operate a “troll farm,” deploying “keyboard warriors” to shape discourse. The National Intelligence Coordinating Agency (NICA) backed this, noting “Chinese organs” fueling divisive rhetoric, as reported by GMA News Online.

Yet, the evidence is tantalizingly sparse. The NSC claims to have identified proxies and candidates backed by China but has withheld names, citing ongoing investigations. This secrecy breeds doubt. China’s Foreign Ministry, through spokesperson Guo Jiakun, denied the allegations, insisting Beijing respects non-interference. Without hard proof—financial records, communications, or digital footprints—the claims teeter on the edge of speculation, risking accusations of political theater amid tensions over maritime disputes.

History, however, lends credence to the fears. In 2020, a Chinese disinformation campaign, “Operation Naval Gazing,” targeted Philippine politics, promoting pro-China figures like former President Rodrigo Duterte and Senator Imee Marcos. Uncovered by Meta and detailed by The Diplomat, it involved 155 accounts reaching 130,000 followers, pushing narratives to erode U.S.-Philippine ties. The tactics—troll farms, bots, and local amplifiers—mirror the NSC’s current warnings. With 75 million Filipinos active on Facebook, the nation is a fertile ground for such digital warfare.

Beijing’s Grand Game: A Regional Power Play

China’s alleged meddling in the Philippines is no isolated gambit but a chapter in a broader saga of influence across the Indo-Pacific. Australia faced Chinese funding scandals in 2019, prompting robust anti-interference laws. Taiwan battles Beijing’s relentless disinformation, blending cyberattacks with propaganda to weaken pro-independence voices. Canada’s 2023 inquiry exposed Chinese efforts to sway elections through diaspora networks. These cases reveal a pattern: exploiting digital tools and local actors to project power while dodging accountability.

For the Philippines, the stakes are uniquely dire. The South China Sea, where China’s sweeping claims collide with Philippine rights, is a geopolitical tinderbox. The 2016 arbitral ruling upholding Manila’s maritime claims remains a thorn in Beijing’s side, met with militarized reefs and fishing militias. The 2025 midterms, shaping the Senate and House, could steer the Philippines’ foreign policy—toward defending sovereignty or toward the accommodation seen under Duterte. Beijing’s interest in a compliant Manila is evident: a diluted U.S.-Philippine alliance and a silenced voice on maritime disputes advance its regional hegemony.

This backdrop explains why the NSC’s claims, though unproven, strike a nerve. The Philippines is not merely a democracy; it’s a frontline state in a contest for Asia’s future. China’s tactics—honed in Hong Kong, where dissent was stifled through co-opted elites, and in Cambodia, where economic leverage secured loyalty—reveal a readiness to bend sovereign systems. The question is whether the Philippines, with its vibrant yet fragile democracy, can resist this tide.

The Human Cost: Democracy Under Siege

For Filipinos like Nora Dela Cruz, the threat is visceral. Social media, a daily staple for 73% of adults, is now a battlefield of manipulation. Disinformation campaigns can erode faith in institutions, as seen in 2022 when bots boosted Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s candidacy. The Commission on Elections (Comelec), already fending off cyberattacks, faces a daunting task to ensure a fair vote, as noted by Freedom House. If voters like Nora are swayed by foreign narratives, the sacred act of choosing leaders—forged through the 1986 People Power Revolution—could be tainted.

The democratic stakes are immense. Elections embody sovereignty, a nation’s right to chart its course. Foreign interference, even if subtle, violates that sanctity. It risks fracturing communities, as seen in the U.S. post-2016 Russian meddling, and could deepen distrust in a nation where only 44% fully trust electoral processes, per Freedom House’s 2024 report. For candidates, especially those targeted for anti-China stances, the threat is personal: online smears can destroy reputations and livelihoods.

Beyond the ballot, the human toll ripples outward. The South China Sea disputes, fueling these tensions, devastate Filipino fisherfolk. In 2024, over 10,000 fishermen in Palawan reported lost livelihoods due to restricted access to traditional grounds, as documented by BusinessWorld. If pro-China candidates gain traction through interference, policies favoring economic ties over maritime rights could further marginalize these communities, exacerbating poverty in a nation where 18% live below the poverty line.

Forging a Shield: Solutions to Protect Democracy

The Philippines stands at a pivotal moment. The NSC’s allegations, though unconfirmed, demand a response that marries urgency with precision. Here are actionable steps to safeguard electoral integrity and counter foreign interference:

Expose the Truth: The NSC must release declassified evidence, even if limited, to bolster public trust and counter China’s denials. Independent audits by civil society, as proposed by Ateneo’s Hansley Juliano, could validate claims.
Fortify Digital Defenses: Comelec’s AI content guidelines are a step forward, but real-time social media monitoring is critical. Partnerships with Meta and X, mirroring Taiwan’s anti-disinformation model, could dismantle troll farms.
Enact Ironclad Laws: Congress must prioritize a foreign interference law, drawing on Australia’s 2018 framework, to penalize covert foreign funding and local complicity. Clear sanctions for proxies are essential.
Empower the People: A nationwide media literacy campaign, targeting rural voters like Maria, can counter disinformation. The Department of Education could embed critical thinking in curricula, inspired by Canada’s civic literacy initiatives.
Rally the Region: The Department of Foreign Affairs should, as Senator Tolentino urged, summon China’s envoy and galvanize ASEAN to denounce electoral meddling. A united front could deter future incursions.
Secure the Vote: Comelec must ensure transparent vote counting and shield polling stations from cyberattacks. For the 1.5 million overseas Filipino voters, secure online voting systems are vital, as highlighted by South China Morning Post.

These measures are not just for 2025 but for the enduring health of Philippine democracy. Ukraine’s success in countering Russian disinformation during wartime elections offers a model: citizens and tech volunteers united in defense of truth. The Philippines’ voters, with their clear rejection of pro-China candidates, provide a foundation of resilience.

A Cry for Sovereignty: The Moral Urgency

The specter of Chinese interference is a call to arms—not only for the Philippines but for all nations guarding the flame of self-rule. Democracy is no birthright; it is a fragile trust, vulnerable to the machinations of external powers. For Filipinos, this is a moment to reclaim their agency, to honor the martyrs of the 1986 uprising. For the world, it’s a warning that the fight for sovereignty unfolds not only on contested waters but in the digital realm where narratives shape destinies.

Nora Dela Cruz, navigating her feed, may not grasp the full weight of this battle. But her vote, her choice, is a rebuke to any foreign script. The Philippines must act decisively to ensure that her voice—and millions like hers—rings true. The soul of a nation, and the promise of its democracy, hangs in the balance.

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