The Philippine Senate Race: A Referendum on Power, Loyalty, and Accountability

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — May 6, 2025

IN THE shadow of Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC), the 2025 Philippine Senate elections, set for May 12, unfold like a high-stakes chess match, each move haunted by the ghosts of a drug war that claimed thousands of lives. The Pulse Asia April 2025 survey reveals a fractured electorate: only 27% have a complete senatorial slate, leaving 73% adrift in indecision—a silent storm that could reshape the race in its final days. Senator Christopher “Bong” Go, Duterte’s loyal aide, commands a staggering 62.2% preference, a lead that defies gravity despite his mentor’s legal peril. Yet, the Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition, backed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., dominates the field, raising questions about whether this is a triumph of political machinery or a nation clinging to familiar names in turbulent times. As candidates vie for 12 seats, the race is less about policy than a referendum on impunity, loyalty, and the allure of celebrity.

The Political Landscape: Loyalty Trumps Accountability?

Bong Go’s 62.2% preference in the Pulse Asia April 2025 survey is a testament to the enduring grip of Duterte’s populist legacy. Despite Duterte’s March 2025 arrest for crimes against humanity, Go’s lead widened from 10 points in March to 20 over his closest rival, ACT-CIS Representative Erwin Tulfo (42.4%). This resilience stems from Duterte’s loyal base, particularly in vote-rich Mindanao, where Go’s “Malasakit Centers” and relentless visibility as Duterte’s right-hand man resonate. According to Rappler, 8% of voters backed withdrawn candidates, a quirk that underscores the inertia of name recognition over substantive debate. Go’s dominance mirrors Duterte’s ironclad base—but in a nation where 7.2% refused ballots, is this a silent protest or mere disengagement?

The Alyansa coalition, uniting Marcos Jr.’s allies like Tulfo, Tito Sotto (41.1%), and Ronald dela Rosa (41%), reflects a formidable political machine. House Speaker Martin Romualdez called it the “most powerful force” in Philippine politics (Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas – Wikipedia), a claim bolstered by its nine candidates among the top 14. Marcos Jr.’s cooperation with the ICC, culminating in Duterte’s arrest (CNN), positions Alyansa as a counterweight to Duterte’s shadow, yet it paradoxically includes Duterte loyalists like Go and Dela Rosa. This duality suggests Marcos Jr.’s strategy: co-opt Duterte’s base while projecting reform. The paradox of voter indecision—73% lack a complete slate—signals not apathy but strategic hesitation. With a ±2% margin of error, Pulse Asia’s data hints at a volatile electorate, wary of dynasties and hungering for clarity on human rights and economic woes.

“This isn’t just a race for seats—it’s a referendum on impunity, where Duterte’s shadow looms like a frayed noose.”

Controversies: The ICC Arrest and the Celebrity Factor

Duterte’s ICC arrest on March 11, 2025, for drug war-related crimes against humanity (ICC), has electrified the race. Candidates like Dela Rosa, the former PNP chief who led the drug war, and Go, Duterte’s confidant, face scrutiny over their roles in a policy linked to 6,000–30,000 deaths (Human Rights Watch). Yet, their high survey rankings—Dela Rosa at 41% and Go at 62.2%—suggest insulation by Duterte loyalists, particularly in the Visayas and Mindanao, where regional breakdowns show strong support. BenarNews reports that Duterte’s base remains defiant, viewing the ICC as a foreign intrusion, a sentiment candidates like Allen Capuyan have amplified by calling the case a “deceptive political weapon” (GMA News).

The “tight race” for slots 5–12, where candidates like Willie Revillame (28.6%) and Manny Pacquiao (28.3%) are statistically tied, underscores the power of celebrity. Revillame, a TV host with no political track record, and Pacquiao, a boxing legend, leverage media wattage over policy depth. Their neck-and-neck standings with seasoned politicians like Pia Cayetano (29.9%) and Panfilo Lacson (33.8%) reflect a voter base swayed by familiarity, not platforms. With a 2% margin of error, these candidates could swap places overnight, a volatility amplified by the 73% undecided voters. This celebrity surge raises a stark question: are Filipinos voting for senators or superstars?

“In a race where a TV host rivals a boxing icon, the Senate risks becoming a stage for fame over substance.”

Campaign Strategies: Digital Blitz and Coalition Calculus

Targeting Gen Z

With six days left, candidates must court Generation Z, a pivotal bloc valuing experience (31%) and progressive stances (17.2%), per a Philippine EJournals study. Digital campaigns on Instagram and X are non-negotiable, offering cost-effective reach within the P3–P5 per voter spending cap (Rolling Stone Philippines). Candidates like Tulfo, with a media-savvy persona, can amplify welfare promises via short, authentic videos, while Bam Aquino could highlight youth-oriented reforms to align with Gen Z’s call for progressivism. The study emphasizes authenticity—Gen Z recoils at polished platitudes, favoring candidates who engage directly on issues like climate and jobs.

Coalition Math

Alyansa’s “unity” branding, as Romualdez touts, gives its candidates an edge through shared resources and Marcos Jr.’s endorsement (Wikipedia). Yet, Go’s Duterte ties pose a dilemma: doubling down risks alienating ICC supporters, while distancing could fracture his base. Independent candidates like Pacquiao and Revillame must counter Alyansa’s machinery with grassroots appeal, leveraging their personal brands to cut through coalition noise. Go should lean into his Duterte loyalty but soften it with economic pledges to broaden appeal, avoiding the backlash faced by Dela Rosa’s conspiracy-laden rhetoric (ABS-CBN).

Resource Allocation

With spending limits tightening, candidates face a stark choice: rallies in vote-rich Luzon, where turnout historically exceeds 80%, or micro-targeted social media ads? Luzon’s 60% voter share demands physical presence, but digital ads offer precision, especially for Gen Z. Tulfo’s success with middle-class voters suggests ads highlighting welfare programs could sway undecideds, while rallies in Visayas swing areas could lock in Dela Rosa’s law-and-order base. Rappler notes billions spent on pre-campaign ads, underscoring the need for efficiency—every peso must now deliver votes.

“In the homestretch, candidates must choose: rally the masses in Luzon’s heartland or chase Gen Z’s hearts online.”

Recommendations: Navigating the Razor’s Edge

Frontrunners (Go, Tulfo): Go must consolidate his lead by emphasizing “Malasakit Centers” and economic relief (Philippine News Agency), sidestepping Duterte’s ICC quagmire with vague unity rhetoric. Overconfidence risks backlash, as seen in past elections where frontrunners faltered. Tulfo, dogged by dynasty allegations (Philstar), should pivot to his DSWD record, framing himself as a reformer, not a dynast. Both must flood X with voter turnout pleas, ensuring their base shows up.
Bubble Candidates (Aquino, Pacquiao): Aquino, at 25.4%, can exploit the 73% undecided by doubling down on anti-corruption, a resonant issue per voter turnout trends. His Katipunan slate should target urban centers with town halls, countering Revillame’s entertainment appeal with policy heft. Pacquiao, tied at 28.3%, must shift from celebrity to substance, emphasizing poverty alleviation to sway Visayas voters. Both need viral X campaigns to break through the noise.
Administration Allies: Alyansa candidates face a tightrope: align with Marcos Jr.’s ICC cooperation to court reformists or hedge to retain Duterte voters? Sotto and Cayetano should embrace Marcos Jr.’s reformist stance, distancing from Duterte’s drug war to avoid human rights backlash (Rappler). Dela Rosa, however, must stick to his law-and-order roots, rallying Duterte loyalists in Mindanao while softening his rhetoric to avoid alienating moderates (Philstar).

Data Visualizations

Table 1: Top Candidates’ Ties to Duterte vs. Marcos
Candidate	Preference (%)	Duterte Ties	Marcos/Alyansa Ties
Bong Go	62.2	Strong (Aide)	Yes (Alyansa)
Erwin Tulfo	42.4	None	Strong (Alyansa)
Tito Sotto	41.1	None	Strong (Alyansa)
Ronald dela Rosa	41.0	Strong (PNP Chief)	Yes (Alyansa)
Willie Revillame	28.6	Moderate (Ally)	None (Independent)

Table 2: Tight Race for Slots 5-12
Rank	Candidate	Preference (%)	Key Appeal
5-8	Ramon Revilla Jr.	35.6	Celebrity/Name
5-9	Panfilo Lacson	33.8	Experience
6-13	Abigail Binay	30.2	Dynasty/Local
8-14	Willie Revillame	28.6	Celebrity
9-14	Manny Pacquiao	28.3	Celebrity

Figure 1: Voter Indecision by Region

(Note: Hypothetical chart based on Pulse Asia trends)

Luzon: 70% undecided, high turnout (80%)
Visayas: 75% undecided, swing votes critical
Mindanao: 68% undecided, Duterte loyalty strong

Conclusion: A Nation at a Crossroads

As the May 12 election looms, the Philippine Senate race is a crucible for a nation wrestling with its past and future. Bong Go’s lead reflects Duterte’s enduring pull, but the ICC arrest casts a long shadow, testing the loyalty of his base. Alyansa’s dominance signals Marcos Jr.’s grip, yet the 73% undecided voters are a wildcard, poised to reward authenticity or punish hubris. Candidates must navigate this razor’s edge with precision—blending digital savvy, coalition muscle, and clear stances on accountability. In a race where a TV host can rival a senator, the stakes are clear: the Senate’s future hinges on whether Filipinos vote for progress or nostalgia.