Empty Plates, Full Promises: Will Poverty Data Shape the Philippines’ 2025 Elections?

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — May 11, 2025

IN THE barangays of Mindanao, where 61% of families call themselves poor and 23% have gone hungry, hope is as scarce as rice. Farmers like Ana, a mother of four I met in Davao del Sur, skips meals so her children can eat. “The government says things are better,” she said, her voice heavy, “but my table is still empty.” As the Philippines heads toward its May 2025 midterm elections, Ana’s struggle meets dueling surveys—one from OCTA Research pegging self-rated poverty at 42%, another from Social Weather Stations (SWS) at 55%. These numbers aren’t just data; they’re the heartbeat of a nation grappling with inequality, regional divides, and trust in leadership. With 18,000 positions at stake, poverty’s story could sway voters—and the future.

Dueling Data: Truth or Perception?

OCTA’s April 10-16, 2025, survey, with 1,200 respondents, reports self-rated poverty dropping from 50% in November 2024 to 42%, or 11.1 million families. Food poverty fell from 49% to 35%. Yet, SWS’s April 11-15 survey, with 1,500 respondents, finds 55% of families—15.5 million—still feel poor. Why the 13-point gap? Methodology matters. OCTA’s smaller sample and ±3% margin of error contrast with SWS’s larger sample and ±2.5% margin, potentially affecting regional representation. SWS’s question, asking respondents to self-identify as “poor, borderline, or not poor,” may capture deeper despair, while OCTA’s focus on monthly budgets could elicit optimism.

Timing plays a role, too. April surveys often reflect pre-election aid, like cash transfers, boosting perceptions of progress. OCTA’s face-to-face interviews may overrepresent accessible areas, while SWS’s broader reach could amplify marginalized voices. Neither survey is definitive, but their divergence risks confusion. When data clashes, trust in institutions—not just polls—can waver.

Mindanao’s Hunger Crisis: Why the South Suffers

Mindanao stands apart: OCTA reports 61% self-rated poverty, 63% food poverty, and hunger spiking from 10% to 23%. Why does this resource-rich region lag? Agriculture, its economic backbone, faces volatile prices and climate shocks like typhoons. The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), with a 23.5% poverty incidence in 2023, reflects deeper challenges: conflict, underinvestment, and weak infrastructure. Ana’s village, far from markets, pays high transport costs, making food scarce and expensive.

Politics adds weight. Mindanao, a Duterte stronghold, has seen Marcos’ approval ratings decline, with satisfaction at 51% and trust at 54% in December 2024. Perceived distance from Manila fuels distrust, making hunger a visceral grievance. Mindanao’s 23% hunger rate positions it as a pivotal region for 2025, where voters may demand leaders who address their pain.

Romualdez’s Hopeful Note: Progress or Mirage?

Speaker Martin Romualdez welcomed OCTA’s findings, seeing them as evidence that Marcos’ socioeconomic agenda is taking hold. He highlights programs like the Food Stamp Program, expanding to 21 provinces, and infrastructure under the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028. “The numbers tell a powerful story,” he said. Indeed, Metro Manila and Balance Luzon saw poverty fall to 28% and 29%, suggesting some gains.

But questions linger. Pre-election cash transfers and public works, common in Philippine politics, may inflate optimism. Seasonal factors, like April’s post-harvest income, could also lower self-rated poverty. Mindanao and the Visayas, at 61% and 60% poverty, show progress hasn’t reached all. The survey’s April release, close to the May 12 elections, and Malacañang’s warm response raise hopes but also questions about timing. For families like Ana’s, the “powerful story” feels incomplete.

Voters at the Crossroads: Needs vs. Aspirations

The 2025 midterms, with over 18,000 seats up for grabs, turn on voter priorities. An OCTA survey shows 38% prioritize poverty and hunger, but 53% focus on affordable goods and 50% on healthcare. This shapes strategies. In Mindanao, where hunger is acute, candidates like those from the Duterte-backed Bakud Maisug coalition could gain by pushing food security and farm support. In Balance Luzon, with poverty at 29%, urban concerns like jobs and inflation may dominate.

The OCTA-SWS gap poses risks. Opposition candidates, citing SWS’s 55% figure, could argue Marcos’ gains fall short, especially in Mindanao and the Visayas. X posts show government accounts promoting OCTA’s data, but if voters sense disconnect, opposition figures like Vice President Sara Duterte, with a +83 net satisfaction rating and Mindanao roots, could benefit. A divided narrative could deepen polarization, complicating governance after the polls.

Filling Empty Bowls: Paths to Relief

Mindanao’s hunger demands action. The Food Stamp Program, targeting 300,000 households by 2028, should prioritize Mindanao’s rural barangays. Agricultural investments—subsidized seeds, irrigation, market access—can stabilize incomes. BARMM needs focused efforts: peacebuilding and infrastructure could erode its 23.5% poverty rate.

Nationally, standardizing poverty metrics is critical. Self-rated surveys, while valuable, are subjective and open to debate. The Philippine Statistics Authority’s 15.5% poverty incidence in 2023 provides an objective base but misses regional nuances. A hybrid metric, blending income data with perceptions, could reduce confusion. The U.S.’s Supplemental Poverty Measure offers a model, factoring in medical costs and regional variations.

Candidates must listen to Ana. Poverty is choosing between rice and medicine. Platforms balancing immediate relief (price controls, healthcare) with long-term goals (education, rural jobs) will win votes and futures.

A Nation’s Turning Point: Unity or Divide?

The clash between OCTA’s 42% and SWS’s 55% reflects a divided Philippines. Behind Mindanao’s 23% hunger rate are families who may vote with empty stomachs, seeking leaders who hear them. Marcos’ agenda shows promise, but its reach is uneven. By prioritizing Mindanao, standardizing data, and addressing voter needs, the Philippines can chart a path where no table stays empty. The 2025 elections are a choice—toward equity, or deeper divides that keep Ana’s dreams out of reach.