By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — May 13, 2025
WHEN three polls tout a president’s rising approval ratings, it’s tempting to declare a comeback—but in the Philippines’ fractious political landscape, numbers often obscure more than they reveal. Recent surveys from Tangere, Octa Research, and Publicus Asia claim President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s approval ratings have surged to around 60%, a stark contrast to earlier polls showing him languishing at 25-30%. For a nation grappling with inflation, poverty, and a bitter political feud between Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte, these figures raise a provocative question: Is this a turning point or a temporary reprieve amid deeper discontent? Drawing on my decades of reporting on human struggles and political machinations, I’ll dissect the data, contextualize the surge, and probe the controversies shadowing these numbers—because the truth, like the story of a Manila street vendor I once met, is rarely as tidy as the headlines suggest.
The Numbers and Their Discontents
The surveys paint an optimistic picture. Tangere’s May 8-9, 2025, poll of 1,500 respondents reports a 61.8% satisfaction rating for Marcos, up 10% in just two days. Octa Research’s April 2025 “Tugon ng Masa” survey, noncommissioned and reputable, shows 60% trust and 59% performance ratings. Publicus Asia, a data analytics firm, claims a rise from 60% to 62%, though it offers no specific dates. These figures suggest a unified narrative of growing public support, particularly among lower-income classes (D and E) and rural voters, credited to policies like the P20 rice program.
Yet, the methodologies raise red flags. Tangere’s two-day survey window is unusually short, risking sampling biases—how can 1,500 respondents, even if stratified, capture a nation of 120 million in 48 hours? Octa’s face-to-face interviews, a hallmark of its credibility, lend weight, but the lack of sample size details in the report clouds its reliability. Publicus Asia, known for charting Marcos’s declining ratings since 2023, offers no methodological transparency here, making its sudden optimism suspect. Contrast these with Pulse Asia’s March 2025 poll, showing a dismal 25% approval and 53% disapproval, or WR Numero’s February 2025 findings of 30% satisfaction and 43% dissatisfaction. The gulf is staggering.
Timing exacerbates the discrepancies. Tangere’s survey followed the P20 rice rollout, a policy with visceral appeal for the poor, potentially inflating short-term sentiment. Pulse Asia’s earlier poll, conducted amid rising inflation and Duterte’s public spats with Marcos, captured a gloomier mood. Sampling limitations—urban vs. rural weighting, class representation—likely skew results. For instance, Tangere’s focus on classes D and E may underrepresent urban middle-class discontent. Broader skepticism, fueled by post-2024 U.S. polling failures and local Reddit threads questioning survey timing, underscores the need for caution. Numbers don’t lie, but they don’t always tell the full story either.
Why the Surge?
To understand the reported surge, consider Luz, a rice farmer I met in Nueva Ecija years ago, whose life hinged on affordable staples and stable prices. For her, Marcos’s P20 rice program isn’t just policy—it’s survival. Tangere attributes the 10% jump to this initiative, resonating with the 70% of Filipinos in classes D and E and rural areas where agriculture dominates. The program, rolled out in early 2025, slashes rice prices to levels not seen in decades, a tangible win for a nation where rice is a cultural and economic bedrock. Marcos’s broader economic pitch—luring investors, signaling “Philippines is open for business”—also aligns with rising GDP growth (6.4% in 2022, per Harvard Political Review) and infrastructure gains, boosting optimism among those who see progress.
Political dynamics amplify this. Marcos’s feud with Sara Duterte, whose approval lags at 48.4%, positions him as a steady hand against her populist volatility. Legislative wins, championed by cousin Speaker Martin Romualdez (55.75% House approval), like housing and healthcare reforms, reinforce a narrative of “Bagong Pilipinas” unity. Historically, midterm ratings for Philippine presidents often reflect policy visibility—Corazon Aquino’s 1989 surge tied to land reform, while Rodrigo Duterte’s 2019 peak rode anti-drug fervor. Marcos’s gains fit this pattern, especially in rural strongholds like Visayas, though urban Metro Manila remains skeptical, per Pulse Asia.
Yet, this surge may be more theater than substance. Inflation, at 4.7% in early 2025, erodes purchasing power, and poverty rates (22% in 2024) persist. The P20 rice program, while popular, faces supply chain hurdles, risking shortages that could sour sentiment. The Duterte feud, far from resolved, fuels regional divides—Davao, her stronghold, shows Marcos disapproval rates near 60%. Like Luz, many Filipinos cheer short-term relief but worry about long-term stability.
The Shadows Behind the Shine
The 10% jump in Tangere’s two-day survey is an anomaly that demands scrutiny. Statistically, such a leap in 48 hours suggests either a seismic shift in public mood or methodological flaws. Without transparent sampling or weighting details, bias—perhaps favoring pro-Marcos regions or demographics—looms large. Publicus Asia’s reversal from chronicling Marcos’s decline to touting a 62% approval invites similar skepticism. Its founders, Malou Tuiquia and Lilibeth Amatong, lack public profiles linking them to partisan agendas, but the firm’s abrupt shift echoes allegations of survey manipulation, a recurring theme in Philippine politics. Reddit threads, like one questioning Octa’s timing, and post-2024 U.S. polling critiques highlight a global distrust in surveys as political tools.
Allegations of partisan use aren’t new. In 1986, Marcos Sr.’s regime faced accusations of rigging polls to prop up his image before the People Power revolt. Today, while no direct evidence ties these surveys to Malacañang, the Palace’s swift amplification of the results—coupled with Romualdez’s effusive praise—fuels suspicion. The contrast with Pulse Asia’s 25% approval, grounded in a larger 2,400-respondent sample, suggests either a fragmented public or selective polling. The truth likely lies in the middle: Marcos enjoys genuine gains among the poor but faces entrenched urban and middle-class discontent.
What Lies Ahead
Political Implications: The 2025 midterms loom as a litmus test. High approval could bolster Marcos’s allies, securing a Senate majority to push charter change—a contentious goal to liberalize the economy but criticized as a power grab. Yet, Pulse Asia’s 53% disapproval warns of a potential backlash, especially in urban centers. Duterte’s impeachment, floated by Marcos allies, hinges on public sentiment; her 48.4% rating suggests enough support to make such a move risky, potentially galvanizing her base. Marcos’s legislative agenda, from tax reforms to infrastructure, needs sustained trust to avoid gridlock.
Economic/Social Impact: The P20 rice program’s appeal is undeniable, but its sustainability is questionable. Supply constraints and global rice price volatility could unravel gains, as seen in past subsidy programs. Inflation and poverty, unaddressed, threaten investor confidence, despite Marcos’s pro-business rhetoric. The surveys reflect populism’s short-term allure but not structural progress—Luz’s relief today could turn to frustration tomorrow if prices spike.
Recommendations:
- Policymakers: Sustain trust by prioritizing transparent, long-term solutions—expand irrigation, not just rice subsidies; tackle inflation with wage hikes. Engage urban voters to bridge regional divides.
- Media: Report surveys with rigor, detailing methodologies and contrasting outliers like Tangere’s 10% jump. Avoid amplifying Palace spin without scrutiny.
- Public: Approach polls critically, cross-referencing with economic realities and alternative sources like Pulse Asia. Demand transparency from pollsters.
Closing Call to Action
In a nation where trust is as fragile as a vendor’s daily earnings, Marcos’s reported surge is a moment to celebrate cautiously but interrogate fiercely. Polls are snapshots, not scriptures. As Filipinos head toward the 2025 midterms, they must demand governance that delivers beyond headlines and pollsters that prioritize truth over spectacle. Like Luz, who weighs each grain of rice against her family’s future, the public deserves clarity to navigate this uncertain tide. Let’s hold power—and those who measure it—accountable.
Key Citations:
- Palace: 3 surveys show better Marcos ratings
- Majority of Filipinos distrust, disapprove of Marcos – Pulse Asia
- Marcos satisfaction rating declines as political feud escalates – BusinessWorld Online
- The Pinoy Pivot – Harvard Political Review
- r/Philippines on Reddit: Should this be of concern when talking about the OCTA Research surveys?
- Can we still trust surveys? | Philippine News Agency
- Tangere survey results, May 8-9, 2025
- Octa Research Tugon ng Masa survey, April 2025
KWEBA ni BAROK 
Leave a comment