The Impeachment Mirage: How Tiangco’s Blame Game Masks Alyansa’s Epic Collapse

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — May 18, 2025

IN THE cauldron of Philippine politics, where dynasties duel and alliances fray, the 2025 midterm elections have laid bare a stark truth: the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte was not the sole saboteur of the Marcos-backed Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas. Campaign manager Toby Tiangco insists the impeachment derailed his coalition’s senatorial slate, especially in Mindanao, but the numbers scream otherwise. With pro-impeachment lawmakers cruising to reelection and the Dutertes dominating their stronghold, Alyansa’s flop stems from unforced errors—fractured unity, tone-deaf messaging, and a failure to counter a dynasty’s enduring grip. Tiangco’s narrative is less a diagnosis than a deflection, a refusal to own a campaign’s collapse in a nation teetering between accountability and dynastic spectacle.

Impeachment as Alibi: Did Sara’s Trial Really Tank Alyansa?

Tiangco’s core argument hinges on the impeachment of Sara Duterte, approved by the House on February 5, 2025, and now slated for a Senate trial in July. He claims it flipped Mindanao voters, who, per internal surveys from November and December 2024, shifted from supporting Alyansa candidates to backing those opposing the impeachment. “Their choice of candidates was whoever would not vote in favor of the impeachment,” Tiangco told dzBB, calling the loss “self-inflicted” by impeachment initiators.

Yet, the data dismantles this claim. Tingog party-list Rep. Jude Acidre highlights that 100 of 115 district lawmakers who signed the impeachment complaint were reelected—an 86% success rate—with 36 of 44 in Mindanao securing fresh mandates, an 81% win rate Manila Bulletin, May 16, 2025. Deputy Speaker David Suarez echoes this, noting the impeachment wasn’t the electoral poison Tiangco suggests. If voters were so incensed, why did pro-impeachment candidates thrive locally?

Mindanao’s senatorial races tell a partial story. Pre-election polls, like the Social Weather Stations survey, pegged Alyansa’s Erwin Tulfo at 45%, yet he finished fourth. Lito Lapid plummeted from fourth to 11th, and Abby Binay and Ramon Revilla fell out of the Magic 12. Meanwhile, Duterte-backed senators Bong Go and Ronald dela Rosa topped the tally TIME, May 2025. The impeachment may have rallied Duterte loyalists, but Tiangco’s singular focus on it ignores deeper campaign failures.

Campaign Mismanagement: The Unforced Errors

Alyansa’s electoral rout wasn’t just about external shocks—it was a masterclass in self-inflicted wounds. Internal fractures crippled the coalition early. Senator Imee Marcos’s exit in April 2025, citing “differences in direction,” signaled disarray Tribune.net.ph, April 19, 2025. Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest on March 11, 2025, deepened tensions, with pro-Marcos factions distancing themselves from the Duterte camp. Tiangco’s failure to mend these rifts left Alyansa fragmented.

Strategically, the campaign misfired. Tiangco’s “clean campaign” of platforms and track records Manila Bulletin, May 12, 2025 was out of touch with Mindanao’s emotional loyalty to the Dutertes. Alyansa’s Manila-centric messaging couldn’t pierce the narrative of a persecuted Sara Duterte. Overreliance on rosy pre-election surveys, like OCTA’s May 9 poll showing 10 of 11 Alyansa candidates in the winning circle, bred complacency. When only six made the Magic 12, Tiangco was caught flat-footed, with no pivot to counter the Duterte surge.

The campaign’s biggest blind spot? Failing to neutralize the Duterte dynasty’s influence. Sara’s impeachment didn’t dim her family’s star—Rodrigo won Davao City’s mayoral race from an ICC cell, and Sebastian claimed the vice mayoralty CNN Philippines, May 12, 2025. Five Duterte-backed senators led the national tally. Alyansa didn’t just falter; it was outplayed by a dynasty that turned adversity into electoral fuel.

Vendetta or Justice? Unraveling the Impeachment’s Motives

Was the impeachment a noble pursuit of accountability or a Marcos-orchestrated hit job? The charges—misuse of public funds, unexplained wealth, and alleged assassination threats—are weighty, backed by probes from lawmakers like Joel Chua and Rolando Valeriano, both of whom won reelection despite Duterte’s attacks Al Jazeera, February 5, 2025. The House’s 240-vote approval, led by Speaker Martin Romualdez, suggests a strong case New York Times, February 5, 2025.

But shadows of coercion loom. Tiangco claims some congressmen signed the impeachment fearing budget cuts, a tactic that smells of political arm-twisting East Asia Forum, February 25, 2025. The UniTeam’s collapse—after its 2022 landslide—fuels suspicions of a vendetta to sideline Sara, a potential 2028 rival Rappler, Timeline: Sara Duterte Impeachment. Malacañang’s claim of Marcos’s non-involvement, via Undersecretary Claire Castro, rings hollow when the House’s zeal aligns so neatly with his interests GMA News Online, May 2025.

Voters split on this. In Mindanao, the impeachment was a betrayal of a native daughter, rallying Duterte’s base. Nationally, the 86% reelection rate of pro-impeachment lawmakers suggests acceptance of the accountability narrative. The truth? A murky blend of justice and power play.

Duterte Dynasty Unbroken: A Force Alyansa Couldn’t Crack

Despite the impeachment, the Dutertes reigned supreme in Mindanao. Rodrigo’s mayoral win, Sebastian’s vice mayoralty, and the success of senators like Go and Dela Rosa prove their machine thrives on loyalty and grievance TIME, May 2025. Sara’s Supreme Court challenge and fiery rhetoric have cemented her as a martyr Reuters, February 19, 2025. The Senate trial, with Duterte-friendly senators like Go and Marcoleta, may end in acquittal, as predicted by lawyer Romulo Macalintal GMA News Online, May 2025.

Alyansa’s campaign never grasped this resilience. Tiangco’s impeachment fixation ignored the Dutertes’ ability to turn scandal into strength, leaving Alyansa outmaneuvered by a dynasty that plays chess while others play checkers.

Democracy on the Brink: A Nation Divided

The impeachment tests Philippine democracy’s mettle. It showcases checks and balances, with the House asserting its role and voters backing pro-impeachment lawmakers. Yet, coercion allegations and the Marcos-Duterte feud risk eroding trust East Asia Forum, February 25, 2025. Senate President Francis Escudero’s promise of evidence-based votes is reassuring, but a Duterte-leaning Senate raises impartiality concerns GMA News Online, May 2025. An acquittal could embolden dynasties; a conviction might deepen polarization. Either way, the stakes for institutional integrity are sky-high.

Fixing the Fracture: A Path to Trust

To heal this rift, the Philippines needs bold reforms:

Transparent Campaign Audits: Mandate independent reviews of coalition strategies and spending to expose missteps, forcing accountability from managers like Tiangco.
Depoliticized Impeachment: Create a bipartisan oversight panel to vet complaints, reducing vendetta perceptions.
Anti-Dynasty Laws: Enforce measures to curb dynastic dominance, leveling the electoral field.
Civic Education: Empower voters to prioritize policy over personality, breaking the grip of populist narratives.

The Verdict: Tiangco’s Dodge Unravels

Tiangco’s impeachment excuse is a flimsy shield for Alyansa’s implosion. The 86% reelection rate of pro-impeachment lawmakers and the Dutertes’ Mindanao sweep reveal a campaign undone by its own failures: a splintered coalition, misfired messaging, and a blind spot for dynastic loyalty. The impeachment was a factor, not the fulcrum. The real scandal is a campaign manager dodging accountability in a democracy craving it. As the Senate trial looms, the Philippines must decide if it can rise above dynastic drama to forge a more accountable future.