The Duterte Dynasty’s Downfall in Davao: A Seismic Shift Threatening a Philippine Empire

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — May 19, 2025

IN THE heart of Mindanao, a political earthquake is rumbling—one that could topple the most feared dynasty in modern Philippine history. But the aftershocks may be even more dangerous. The 2025 midterm elections have exposed deep fissures in the Duterte family’s once-ironclad grip on the Davao Region, their springboard to national dominance. While former President Rodrigo Duterte, detained 7,000 miles away in The Hague, clinched a landslide victory as Davao City’s mayor with over 660,000 votes—dwarfing his rival’s 60,000—the provinces surrounding his urban stronghold are slipping away. This paradox of a dynasty hemorrhaging from self-inflicted wounds, yet clinging to fierce loyalty, marks a pivotal moment in Philippine politics. The cracks in Davao could unravel not just a regional fiefdom but the Dutertes’ national ambitions, reshaping a nation entangled in dynastic vendettas, international scrutiny, and geopolitical chess games.

The Dynasty’s Fractured Stronghold: A Regional Power Crumbles

For decades, the Duterte name was Davao’s law, their enforcers omnipresent, their populism a potent drug. Rodrigo, “the Punisher,” ruled Davao City for over 20 years before his 2016-2022 presidency, leaving a legacy of blood and devotion. His daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, inherited the mantle, wielding influence as Davao’s mayor and now eyeing the 2028 presidency. But the May 12, 2025, midterms paint a starkly different picture beyond Davao City. In Davao del Norte, longtime ally Pantaleon Alvarez, a former House Speaker, suffered a crushing defeat in his vice governor bid, securing only 136,239 votes against Clarice Jubahib’s 223,596 under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP) Philippine News Agency. In Davao del Sur, John Tracy Cagas, who dared vote to impeach Sara, trounced his Duterte-backed rival with 192,569 votes to 80,151 Rappler. Davao Oriental saw the Dayanghirang family—father and son—claim the governorship and a congressional seat, ousting PFP’s incumbent. In Davao de Oro, Maricar Zamora-Mabanglo and her husband Raul, defying their expulsion from Sara’s Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HnP), secured key posts.

This urban-rural divide is glaring. Rodrigo’s Davao City triumph, despite his ICC detention, reflects an urban base fueled by nostalgia for his strongman rule and amplified by disinformation campaigns framing his arrest as a Marcos-orchestrated betrayal. Yet in the provinces, where farmers and small-town folk grapple with poverty and land disputes, the Duterte mystique is fading. “For farmers in Davao del Norte, Jubahib’s win brings hope for land reform,” said Maria, a 42-year-old rice farmer who spoke anonymously, fearing Duterte loyalists. “But with their enforcers still lurking, few dare celebrate openly.” Why does Duterteism thrive in urban Davao but falter in rural provinces? Is this a sign of a fractured legacy, or a strategic retreat to regroup?

Betrayals and Blood Feuds: The Marcos-Duterte War Explodes

The Duterte dynasty’s wounds are not just electoral—they’re deeply personal. The 2022 Marcos-Duterte alliance, which swept them to victory, has imploded into a vicious feud. Sara’s impeachment in February 2025, on charges of corruption and an alleged assassination plot against Marcos, marked a breaking point. Rodrigo’s ICC arrest in March, facing charges for his brutal drug war, was seen by supporters as Marcos’s ultimate betrayal. “Who truly stands to benefit if the Duterte family is erased from this world?” Sara thundered at a Manila rally, her voice blending defiance and desperation.

Internal betrayals sting just as deeply. HnP expulsions of Oyo Uy and Maricar Zamora-Mabanglo, following a 2024 anti-Marcos rally, backfired when both won key seats in Davao del Norte and Davao de Oro Philippine News Agency. Alvarez’s fall is even more dramatic. Once a Duterte confidant, he was sidelined by Sara, then called for the military to abandon Marcos in 2024—a gambit that cost him dearly TIME. “The Dutertes turned on their own,” said a Davao del Norte councilor, speaking anonymously. “Alvarez’s defeat shows loyalty to them is a one-way street.”

Marcos’s PFP seized the moment, fielding candidates like Edwin Jubahib, who won Davao del Norte’s governorship with 319,588 votes, promising “zero-billing hospitals” aligned with Marcos’s national agenda Philippine News Agency. Yet the Dutertes’ grip on Davao City, where Sebastian Duterte will likely assume mayoral duties, proves they remain a formidable force.

A High-Stakes Gamble: The Road to 2028 and Beyond

The 2025 midterms are a prelude to 2028, when Marcos’s term ends and Sara’s presidential ambitions face their crucible. Her impeachment trial, set for July 2025, is a make-or-break moment. A conviction, requiring 16 of 24 Senate votes, would bar her from public office, derailing her 2028 bid. With five Duterte-aligned senators, including Christopher Go and Ronald dela Rosa, Sara needs just four more votes to survive TIME. Marcos’s six Senate wins give him leverage, but not a lock. If Sara escapes, Davao City’s 48% regional support could propel her toward Malacañang.

PFP’s provincial gains signal Marcos’s bid to reshape Mindanao’s political map. Leaders like Jubahib and the Cagas family may prioritize national projects—roads, bridges, hospitals—over Duterte-era populism. Yet this risks alienating rural voters loyal to Rodrigo’s legacy. “Marcos’s best chance is to get a coalition to impeach Sara,” said analyst Richard Heydarian. “If he fails, he’s in trouble in 2028.” A Duterte comeback, fueled by sympathy for Rodrigo’s detention and Sara’s defiance, could revive their authoritarian brand.

Mindanao’s strategic weight amplifies these stakes. Its location, amid U.S.-China tensions in the South China Sea, makes stability critical. Rodrigo’s pro-China stance clashed with Marcos’s pro-U.S. pivot, and a Duterte resurgence could tilt the Philippines toward Beijing. The ICC’s role, meanwhile, stokes nationalist fury, with Duterte supporters decrying it as Western interference.

A Fragile Opportunity: Don’t Celebrate Yet

The Dutertes’ provincial losses are no cause for triumph. Their Davao City victory, defying Rodrigo’s detention, proves their resilience. Sara’s rising approval ratings, fueled by disinformation, show a loyal base ready to mobilize. New dynasties like the Cagas and Dayanghirangs, while checking Duterte power, may merely perpetuate elite rule. John Tracy Cagas’s impeachment vote suggests reformist zeal, but his family’s grip on Davao del Sur raises doubts Rappler. Are these new players liberators or just new warlords in a corrupt system?

The Philippines faces a rare chance to dismantle warlord politics, but it demands vigilance. Voters must hold rising dynasties accountable, demanding transparent platforms over name recognition. The ICC and global powers like the U.S. and China must prioritize stability over geopolitical games, lest Mindanao’s volatility spirals. For Filipinos like Maria, the farmer in Davao del Norte, the stakes are visceral: a future free from fear, where power serves the people. The Dutertes’ decline offers a window to break this cycle. But if history is any guide, the Philippines’ elites—old and new—are already carving up the spoils. Is this the end of Duterteism—or its cunning metamorphosis?