Philippine Democracy on Trial: Sara Duterte’s “Bloodbath” Gambit vs. Leila de Lima’s Stand for Justice

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — May 20, 2025

A Dynasty’s Defiance: The Marcos-Duterte Showdown Ignites

The impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, set to erupt on July 30, 2025, is no mere legal proceeding—it’s a seismic clash in the ongoing Marcos-Duterte feud, a saga dripping with betrayal and ambition. At its core are allegations of graft, bribery, betrayal of public trust, and constitutional violations tied to Duterte’s alleged misuse of P612 million in confidential funds during her 2022–2024 tenure as Education Secretary. Worse, her November 2024 threat to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., his wife, and Speaker Martin Romualdez has landed her charges of inciting sedition and grave threats, escalating the stakes.

Yet, Sara Duterte remains a political juggernaut. A March 2025 Pulse Asia survey (data cited in Inquirer, May 18, 2025) shows her approval rating at a defiant 59%, towering over Marcos’ faltering 25%. An April 2025 OCTA poll confirms 58% public trust, a testament to her enduring appeal despite legal peril. This trial is a battleground not just for her political survival but for the Duterte dynasty’s legacy, now imperiled by her father Rodrigo’s detention in The Hague, facing ICC charges for his drug war’s alleged crimes against humanity.

Enter Leila de Lima, a figure of moral gravitas. Imprisoned for nearly seven years on trumped-up drug charges under Rodrigo Duterte’s regime, her acquittal and return as Mamamayang Liberal’s lead nominee cast her as a symbol of redemption. As a prosecutor in Sara’s trial, de Lima embodies a reckoning—a woman once silenced by the Dutertes now wielding the gavel of accountability. Their clash is personal, political, and profoundly symbolic.

“Bloodbath” or Bust: Decoding Duterte’s Dangerous Rhetoric

On May 17, 2025, in Davao City, Sara Duterte’s words sent shockwaves: “I want a bloodbath,” she declared after a thanksgiving Mass, her legal team reluctantly gearing up for the impeachment trial she claims to crave Rappler, May 18, 2025. Is this a reckless outburst or a calculated rallying cry? The phrase, steeped in her family’s history of violent rhetoric, echoes Rodrigo Duterte’s promises to slaughter criminals. It’s a dog whistle to her loyalists—58% of whom trust her, per OCTA—framing the trial as a political lynching by Marcos’ allies.

But the gambit is fraught. Her rhetoric, paired with her earlier assassination threat, risks alienating moderates. Senate President Chiz Escudero called her demeanor “unbecoming” Rappler, May 18, 2025, and public opinion tilts 38% pro-Marcos versus 15% pro-Duterte Rappler, May 18, 2025. A “bloodbath” could backfire, inviting contempt charges if her team disrupts the Senate’s proceedings, as de Lima warned.

De Lima’s response was surgical: “In an impeachment trial, the only one who bleeds is the person impeached” GMA News, May 15, 2025. Labeling Duterte’s words “toxic rhetoric” and “mindless arrogance” Manila Bulletin, May 18, 2025, she positioned herself as the defender of constitutional order. Her warning of contempt for chaos signals a trial that will prioritize law over spectacle, a direct rebuke to Duterte’s theatrics.

Power Plays Unmasked: Timing, Allies, and Global Stakes

The “bloodbath” remark, timed post-midterm elections on May 12, 2025, is no coincidence. The polls strengthened Duterte’s Senate allies—Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, Imee Marcos—while Marcos’ camp underperformed, securing only six of 12 seats Rappler, September 2024. With nine votes needed to avoid conviction, Duterte’s defiance signals confidence in a Senate less loyal to Marcos. Her rhetoric is a power flex, daring opponents to escalate.

Globally, her planned “send him home” rallies in Doha and The Hague for her father’s ICC detention Inquirer, May 18, 2025 tie her domestic fight to nationalist fervor. By framing Rodrigo’s arrest as foreign meddling, she taps into a well of anti-ICC sentiment. Yet this risks portraying her as disconnected from domestic crises—inflation, unemployment—that eroded Marcos’ support. Is this political suicide or a masterstroke to consolidate her base? Her 59% approval suggests resilience, but declining trust (down from 82% in 2023) hints at cracks.

The Fallout: A Democracy Hanging by a Thread

Legally, Duterte’s “bloodbath” risks contempt charges if her team disrupts the trial, compounding her sedition and threat cases at the DOJ GMA News, November 2024. A guilty verdict could banish her from politics, derailing her 2028 presidential bid. Yet her popularity could turn conviction into martyrdom, fueling unrest in Duterte strongholds like Mindanao.

Politically, the Marcos-Duterte rift is irreparable. Marcos’ ICC cooperation, a betrayal in Duterte’s eyes, contrasts with his sagging 25% approval. Sara’s October 2024 threat to exhume Marcos Sr.’s corpse Rappler, May 18, 2025 buried any chance of truce. The trial could either cement Marcos’ control or hand Sara a populist resurgence.

Institutionally, the Philippines’ democratic norms are fraying. Duterte’s rhetoric, echoing her father’s violent legacy, normalizes a dangerous discourse. The Senate, as impeachment court, faces pressure from both camps in a polarized nation. De Lima’s stand for accountability is a bulwark, but the system—scarred by a judiciary once cowed by Rodrigo Duterte and a Congress swayed by dynasties—teeters on the edge.

A Call to Arms: Saving Philippine Democracy

This trial demands global scrutiny. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch must monitor for fairness, ensuring senators resist coercion. The international community should amplify de Lima’s call for constitutional integrity, countering Duterte’s populist chaos. Philippine civil society—groups like Mamamayang Liberal and Akbayan—needs support to rebuild trust in institutions battered by impunity.

Duterte’s “bloodbath” isn’t just a phrase; it’s a warning of a democracy where power trumps principle. The Philippines faces a choice: embrace the rule of law or succumb to strongman nostalgia. De Lima’s resolve offers a path, but it will take collective will—domestic and global—to ensure justice prevails over spectacle.