The Philippines’ Dynastic Death Spiral: Can Democracy Survive the Marcos-Duterte War?

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — May 30, 2025

THE Philippines is a nation on the brink, caught in a vicious tug-of-war between two dynasties whose feud threatens to unravel its democratic foundations. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., heir to a legacy of both grandeur and infamy, faces relentless calls to resign, his defiant response—“Why would I do that?”—drowned out by a chorus of discontent. The 2025 midterm elections, the International Criminal Court’s arrest of Rodrigo Duterte, and the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte have ignited a political firestorm, exposing systemic corruption, power grabs, and a public weary of elite gamesmanship. This is no mere clash of personalities—it’s a battle for the soul of a democracy suffocating under dynastic rule.

Unmasking the Chaos: Dynasties, Defeats, and Desks Cleared

The Philippines’ political crisis is a Shakespearean tragedy of ambition and betrayal. The 2025 midterm elections, held on May 12, delivered a crushing blow to Marcos’s administration, with only half of his endorsed Senate candidates winning seats. A March 2025 Pulse Asia survey revealed a paltry 32% approval rating, with Filipinos decrying hunger, poverty, and unchecked corruption. “I voted for Marcos hoping for change, but prices keep rising, and nothing gets better,” says Anna Cruz, a Manila street vendor scraping by on meager earnings. Her disillusionment mirrors a nation fed up with leaders who prioritize power over people.

The Marcos-Duterte feud, once a fragile alliance, has erupted into open warfare. The Dutertes, rooted in their Davao stronghold, demand Marcos secure Rodrigo’s release from ICC custody—a nonstarter for a president wary of alienating international allies. Marcos’s May 22, 2025, call for a Cabinet reshuffle, dubbed a “bold reset,” saw 21 secretaries, including Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, offer resignations. Critics like former Duterte aide Salvador Medialdea scoff, calling it a “smokescreen” for Marcos’s own failures. The reshuffle, far from addressing systemic rot, feels like a desperate bid to deflect blame. This dynastic rivalry—Marcos’s Ilocos elite versus Duterte’s Mindanao populism—exposes a democracy held hostage by family fiefdoms, where institutions bend to the will of clans.

Behind the Scandals: Sovereignty Sold, Impeachments Staged, Reshuffles Rigged

The ICC’s arrest of Rodrigo Duterte on March 11, 2025, for crimes against humanity tied to his “war on drugs” has set the nation ablaze. Accused of orchestrating thousands of deaths, mostly of poor Filipinos, Duterte’s detention in The Hague has sparked accusations of Marcos’s complicity. Posts on X, like those from @bobitiglao and @angeloinchina, brand Marcos a traitor who “surrendered sovereignty.” Marcos insists he merely followed Interpol’s warrant, but to Duterte’s base, it’s a calculated betrayal to sideline a rival.

The impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte, slated for July 2025, is another powder keg. Charged with corruption and alleged death threats against Marcos and his family, Sara faces a Senate trial that could end her political career. Marcos’s claim of neutrality—“It’s up to Congress”—is met with raised eyebrows, given his allies’ role in pushing the impeachment. Is this a strategic move to neuter a 2028 presidential contender, or a spineless dodge? Sara’s 59% approval rating, despite the charges, underscores her populist appeal, inherited from her father’s iron-fisted legacy.

The Cabinet reshuffle, meanwhile, is pure political theater. Framed as a response to electoral losses, it’s been praised by the League of Cities of the Philippines but derided on X as a hollow gesture. “They change faces, but the system stays rotten,” says Danilo Montero, a Davao taxi driver. The reshuffle’s timing, post-election, reeks of desperation rather than reform, failing to address the corruption and economic woes fueling public anger.

Leadership Under Fire: Promises Crumble, Populism Rises

Marcos’s vow to be “solution-oriented” is a cruel irony as his allies orchestrate Sara Duterte’s impeachment. His 32% approval rating reflects a public disillusioned by his inability to tackle inflation, unemployment, and graft. His pivot to U.S. alliances, evident in the Canada-Philippines defense pact, contrasts with Duterte’s pro-China stance, alienating nationalists who see him as a Western puppet. At the ASEAN Summit, Marcos’s call for reconciliation without preconditions dodged the real issue: his administration’s survival depends on outmaneuvering the Dutertes.

The Duterte camp’s midterm gains—five Senate seats—signal a troubling resurgence. Is this populist resilience or democratic decay? Rodrigo’s presidency normalized extrajudicial killings and media suppression, and Sara’s enduring popularity suggests this authoritarian allure persists. As analyst Lisandro Claudio warns, “Duterte’s arrest could either break his grip or martyr him.” The Philippines risks sliding toward autocracy if institutions fail to check populist fervor.

Voices and Verdicts: A Nation Split, a World Watching

On X, the divide is stark. #MarcosResign trends alongside posts like @pinoyanghang, citing Marcos’s 14% trust rating and 63% distrust. Duterte supporters spread disinformation targeting ICC judges, echoing Rodrigo’s tactics. “My sister backs Sara; I want Marcos out. We’re a house divided,” says Marj Santos, a Quezon City teacher. The LCP’s support for the reshuffle contrasts with public skepticism, as seen in @maracepeda’s post calling it a “control grab.”

Globally, the ICC case and Marcos’s ASEAN remarks have tarnished the Philippines’ image. The arrest, while a win for human rights, fuels nationalist backlash. Marcos’s Western tilt complicates ASEAN’s neutrality, positioning the Philippines as a geopolitical pawn. The nation’s sovereignty is questioned not just by the ICC but by its leaders’ inability to prioritize national interest over personal grudges.

Breaking the Chains: A Roadmap to Save Democracy

Marcos must stop hiding behind reshuffles and tackle corruption and inequality directly. Transparent procurement, anti-graft crackdowns, and subsidies for struggling vendors like Anna Cruz could restore faith. Lip service won’t cut it; Filipinos demand action.

Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial must be an exemplar of fairness. Public access to evidence, live broadcasts, and an independent Senate process are critical to avoid perceptions of a Marcos-orchestrated witch hunt. Anything less risks further eroding trust in institutions.

The Philippines must dismantle its dynastic stranglehold. The Marcos-Duterte feud is a glaring warning of how family legacies distort democracy. Constitutional bans on political dynasties, alongside support for grassroots leaders, are essential. As Leila de Lima, jailed for defying Duterte, warns, “This clan war distracts from the real victims—Filipinos struggling to survive.”

The Final Reckoning

The Philippines’ crisis isn’t just about Marcos versus Duterte—it’s about whether democracy can outlive the dynasties that choke it. These families, with their regional fiefdoms and personal vendettas, have turned governance into a circus where the public pays the price. If the nation is to reclaim its democratic promise, it must demand leaders who serve the people, not their surnames. The world watches, and history will judge.