Impeachment Inferno: Can Sara Duterte Outrun the Flames of Accountability?

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — May 31, 2025

THE Senate trial of Vice President Sara Duterte burns like a wildfire, threatening to consume her political future and test the Philippines’ fragile democratic foundations. Allegations of corruption and death threats have ignited a national reckoning, with the blade of justice hovering over her 2028 presidential ambitions. Why do 88% of Filipinos demand she face her accusers, yet half reject her ouster? Can a nation exhausted by dynastic feuds and political vendettas summon the will to demand accountability? This impeachment saga, teetering between legal quagmire and public outrage, is a crucible for a country at a crossroads.

The People Speak: A Cry for Truth Amid Division

A Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey from May 2025 reveals a nation desperate for clarity: 88% of Filipinos—68% emphatically—insist Duterte confront charges of misusing P612.5 million in confidential funds and issuing death threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Yet, a Pulse Asia poll from May 2025 shows 50% oppose her impeachment, up from 45% in March, while support has slumped from 41% in December 2024 to 28%. This paradox pulses with tension: Filipinos crave transparency but flinch at the guillotine of removal. Why?

The answer lies in a deeper public yearning. The SWS survey finds 93% want Duterte to prioritize “national needs”—jobs, healthcare, food security—over political warfare. Another 74% demand she cease criticizing the Marcos administration, signaling exhaustion with the fractured 2022 “unity” alliance. Regional divides deepen the rift: in Mindanao, Duterte’s stronghold, 88% oppose impeachment, viewing her as a regional titan, while Luzon’s urban skeptics fuel 45% support in Metro Manila. This sociological schism reflects a nation torn between dynastic loyalty and a hunger for governance that delivers.

Duterte’s Dangerous Dance: Defiance or Desperation?

Duterte’s response to the impeachment is a high-stakes gamble. She vows a “bloodbath” in the Senate trial, projecting defiance to rally her base, yet simultaneously petitions the Supreme Court to halt proceedings—a move critics call a dodge. “To abandon the process is to abandon the people who still believe in the promise of justice,” declares congressman-elect Leila de Lima, her resolve hardened by years battling Duterte’s father, Rodrigo. Duterte’s legal maneuver, filed in February 2025, exploits constitutional gray zones, arguing the House’s impeachment may not carry into the 20th Congress.

This contradiction reeks of strategy. With her sights on the 2028 presidency, Duterte plays to her Mindanao base and Duterte Youth loyalists, where her 78% trust rating holds firm. A Senate acquittal could crown her a martyr, but conviction would end her tenure, crippling her dynasty’s grip. Her inflammatory rhetoric—threatening Marcos, his wife, and House Speaker Martin Romualdez—has alienated moderates, with 36% citing her refusal to answer investigations as impeachment grounds. Is she stoking chaos to mask vulnerability, or orchestrating a populist uprising?

A Constitutional Cauldron: Will Justice Prevail?

The impeachment process is a legal labyrinth. The House’s 240-vote impeachment in February, well above the 102-vote threshold, was a procedural coup. Yet, Senate President Chiz Escudero’s delay of the trial’s reading from June 2 to June 11, 2025, stokes fears of derailment. Legal scholars warn that if the 19th Congress adjourns without action, Duterte could claim a year’s immunity—a loophole that mocks accountability. Political analysts like Anna Malindog-Uy have emphasized the Senate’s constitutional obligation to conduct the impeachment trial promptly, warning that delays could undermine public confidence in democratic institutions.

Leila de Lima, now a House prosecutor, insists evidence must rule. “If the accusations have no sufficient basis, the evidence will show that—not gossip or intimidation,” she told Philstar. Her colleague Chel Diokno, a fellow prosecutor, urges a transparent trial to counter disinformation, like doctored images falsely tying Rodrigo Duterte to the Supreme Court. “Transparency is the antidote to disinformation,” Diokno argues. Yet, the Senate’s post-midterm composition, weakened by Marcos’s allies’ poor showing, raises doubts about impartiality. Legal scholars like Tony La Viña have stressed that the Senate trial must prioritize fairness over political deal-making to maintain public trust in the impeachment process.

Surveys or Sabotage? The Battle for Public Trust

The SWS and Pulse Asia surveys clash, fueling controversy. SWS’s December 2024 poll reported 41% for impeachment, 35% against, with a ±2% margin of error, while Pulse Asia’s March 2025 survey found 26% support and 45% opposition. By May, Pulse Asia noted 28% support but 50% opposition. SWS’s face-to-face method with 2,160 respondents contrasts with Pulse Asia’s smaller samples, potentially inflating support in SWS data. Mindanao’s 56% opposition reflects Duterte’s regional clout, while Luzon’s 50% support signals urban distrust.

The Stratbase Group’s role in commissioning SWS surveys sparks suspicion. Critics like @MacLopez769 on X decry them as “flawed” and “designed to deceive,” hinting at Marcos-orchestrated sabotage. Pro-impeachment voices like @jesusfalcis retort, “88% want Sara Duterte to answer the impeachment case. Kaya dapat ituloy!” Stratbase’s Dindo Manhit defends the surveys as capturing “public frustration” over Duterte’s leadership, citing the 46% who flagged her fund misuse. Are these surveys a clarion call for accountability or a weapon to kneecap a 2028 rival? The truth likely straddles both: Filipinos demand answers, but distrust partisan agendas.

Charting the Path Out of the Inferno

For Duterte: Confront the charges head-on or risk becoming a parable of political hubris. Her refusal to clarify disbursements, including payments to fictitious recipients like “Mary Grace Piattos,” fuels public fury. Transparency could shore up her 78% Mindanao trust rating and blunt Luzon’s skepticism.

For Institutions: The Senate must resist backroom deals. A televised trial, as Diokno champions, could restore faith by prioritizing evidence over spectacle. The Supreme Court must tread carefully, clarifying its role without undermining impeachment’s sanctity.

For Media: Transcend partisan traps. The 74% who want less criticism and more governance demand reporting that elevates issues—poverty, inflation, jobs—over mudslinging. Media must amplify the public’s call for accountability without stoking division.

A Nation’s Soul on Trial

This isn’t just about Sara Duterte—it’s about whether a nation weary of dynasties and dirty wars can demand better from its leaders. The June 2025 Senate trial is a crucible for the Philippines’ democratic spirit. Will it prove no one is above the law, or buckle under political expediency? As de Lima warned, abandoning the process abandons justice itself. The Filipino people, with their 93% plea for governance over gamesmanship, deserve more than a circus—they deserve a reckoning.