The Rice Wars: Manila’s Tariff Gamble Sacrifices Farmers for Fleeting Price Cuts

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C Biraogo — June 15, 2025

IN Nueva Ecija’s rice fields, Aling Rosa pawns her ancestral land to survive crashing palay prices. In Manila’s slums, Mang Juan’s family stretches stagnant wages to afford rice that consumes a fifth of their budget. The Philippine government’s proposed gradual rice tariff hike—from 15% to 35%—promises balance but risks deepening inequities, amplifying global-local tensions, and masking policy failures. This critique, blending data and lived realities, exposes the human toll of a policy trapped between market dogma and political expediency.

Structural Inequities: A System Rigged Against the Vulnerable

The 2019 Rice Tariffication Law (RTL) replaced import quotas with tariffs, promising lower prices and farmer support. Instead, it enriched middlemen while farmers and the poor suffered. In 2020, traders earned ₱43 billion from cheap imports, while farmers lost ₱56 billion as palay prices fell from ₱25/kg pre-RTL to ₱20.29/kg in 2025. Smallholders—1.1 million of 2.9 million, farming less than one hectare—face debt or crop switching.

RCEF Mismanagement: The Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF), with ₱30 billion annually, aims to provide seeds, machinery, and loans. Yet, only 7.62% of 2023’s ₱5.1 billion was disbursed, with seeds often late. Overpriced tractors (₱1.298 million vs. ₱1.2 million budget) signal corruption Philstar, 2022.
Middlemen Profiteering: Scams like the February 2025 Bulacan rice repacking raid show traders selling old imports as premium local stock PhilStar, 2025.
Urban Poor Strain: Rice consumes 20% of low-income budgets. The 2024 tariff cut lowered prices from ₱58/kg to ₱43/kg, but inflation and scams eroded gains. Marginalized groups, like BARMM’s indigenous farmers (0.93 hp/ha mechanization), can’t compete and face higher prices ISSASPhil, 2022.

The system favors traders and agribusinesses, leaving small farmers and the poor to absorb shocks.

Global-Local Tensions: Imports Over Farmers

The Philippines’ 3 million metric tons of rice imports in 2024, mostly from Vietnam, prioritize cheap rice over local farmers, exposing them to global supply chain risks. The 15% tariff cut flooded markets during harvests, crashing palay prices and pushing farmers like Aling Rosa into debt. Rep. Rossana Vergara’s call for higher tariffs reflects farmers’ pleas BusinessWorld, 2024.

Geopolitical Risks: India’s 2023 export ban spiked global prices, showing supply vulnerabilities. Diversifying to Pakistan and India is untested; India’s 63-million-ton stockpile could vanish with policy shifts Tridge, 2025.
Market Volatility: A sudden tariff hike could prompt suppliers to raise prices, as the DA warns. Vietnam’s Mekong Delta flooding threatens yields ResearchGate, 2020.
Historical Context: Thailand’s 2008 curbs and India’s bans show food security requires local resilience, not just trade. Liberalization’s “progress” narrative ignores these risks .

Policy Shortcomings: Band-Aids on Deep Wounds

The DA’s gradual tariff hike, timed with Vietnam’s September and Pakistan’s December harvests, aims to protect farmers without spiking prices DA, 2025. Yet, it sidesteps root issues: low productivity, corruption, and weak support.

Productivity Gap: Philippine yields (4 tons/hectare) lag Vietnam’s 5.6 tons due to poor irrigation and late seeds. RCEF’s 16% mechanization rise since 2013 helps, but BARMM’s 0.93 hp/ha vs. Cagayan Valley’s 3.51 hp/ha shows uneven gains Philippine Statistics Authority, 2019.
Corruption: Overpriced tractors and delayed RCEF funds erode trust (Philstar, 2022; BusinessWorld, 2024).
Weak Buffer Stocks: The National Food Authority’s 6-day supply can’t stabilize prices ISSASPhil, 2022.

The hike delays crises without addressing the RTL’s unfulfilled competitiveness promise.

Human Impact: Faces of the Crisis

Stakeholder	Current Struggles	Tariff Hike Impact
Farmers	Palay at ₱20.29/kg (vs. ₱25/kg pre-RTL) barely covers ₱18/kg costs, forcing debt or crop switching (BusinessMirror, 2020).	Higher tariffs may boost demand but depend on RCEF efficiency.
Urban Poor	Rice consumes 20% of budgets; ₱43/kg MSRP is strained by inflation, scams (BusinessMirror, 2024).	Price hikes could worsen affordability without oversight.
Marginalized Groups	BARMM farmers (0.93 hp/ha) can’t compete; face income loss and high prices (ISSASPhil, 2022).	Benefits hinge on curbing profiteering.

Aling Rosa sells heirlooms to survive; Mang Juan’s family buys substandard rice. Indigenous farmers in Mindanao, with low mechanization, are trapped in poverty. The National Movement for Food Sovereignty demands 180% harvest-season tariffs BusinessWorld, 2018.

Recommendations: Equity and Resilience

To break this cycle, Manila must pair tariffs with reforms:

Anti-Profiteering Enforcement: Digital tracking to curb middlemen, as seen in Bulacan BusinessMirror, 2024.
Cash Transfers: ₱5,000 per RCEF beneficiary for 1.1 million smallholders, modeled on cash programs ISSASPhil, 2022.
Hybrid Seed Subsidies: Cover 1 million hectares to reach 6 tons/hectare, per Vietnam’s model Philippine Statistics Authority, 2019.
Buffer Stock Investment: ₱69 billion for NFA’s 60-day reserves ISSASPhil, 2022.
RCEF Overhaul: Fast-track funds, match seeds, audit costs BusinessWorld, 2024.

These demand courage against entrenched interests.

Closing: No Justice, No Food Security

Rice is the Philippines’ covenant of survival, yet Manila’s tariff policy pits farmers against consumers, with profiteers feasting. Aling Rosa’s pawned land and Mang Juan’s empty table indict a system favoring market dogma over dignity. A gradual tariff hike, without reforms, delays justice. Food security demands thriving farmers, affordable rice, and resilience against global whims. Until then, the rice wars rage, with the poor paying for a feast they’ll never taste.