Tangere’s Early Verdict: Duterte-Go Tandem Leads 2028, But Can It Endure?

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo -+ June 26, 2025

IN THE Philippines, where political dynasties wield power like feudal lords, an early poll for the 2028 presidential race paints a vivid yet troubling picture. Conducted by Tangere from June 20-22, 2025, the survey crowns Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Bong Go as frontrunners, commanding 35% and 38% voter preference for president and vice president, respectively. Yet, these figures, drawn from a mobile-based poll of 2,000 respondents, are less a prophecy than a warning—revealing a democracy strained by familial feuds, digital divides, and fragile institutions. As the Marcos and Duterte clans clash, the poll exposes fault lines that could reshape Philippine governance. With journalistic rigor and an unflinching lens, this analysis dissects Tangere’s methodology, the political stakes, and the existential risks to democracy, offering a roadmap for stakeholders to navigate this high-stakes battleground.

Digital Dreams or Demographic Distortion? Scrutinizing Tangere’s Methodology

Tangere’s survey, noncommissioned and executed via a mobile application, sampled 2,000 respondents with a ±2.15% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. Its stratified random sampling—12% National Capital Region, 23% Northern Luzon, 22% Southern Luzon, 20% Visayas, and 23% Mindanao—aims to reflect the Philippines’ geographic diversity. As a member of the Marketing and Opinion Research Society of the Philippines (MORES), Tangere adheres to industry standards, and its transparency about noncommissioned status lends credibility. However, its mobile-based approach is a double-edged sword in a nation where only 73.6% of households had internet access in 2024, with rural areas trailing urban centers. This digital divide risks underrepresenting older, rural, or less tech-savvy voters, skewing results toward younger, urban demographics.

A 2023 Tangere survey drew criticism for excluding respondents over 51, a demographic that often sways family voting decisions, as noted in a Manila Times analysis. Compared to established pollsters like Pulse Asia, which employ face-to-face interviews for broader reach, Tangere’s method prioritizes efficiency over inclusivity. Its sample size is robust for early polling, but its relative newness—lacking the decades-long track record of competitors—fuels skepticism. Online discussions, such as a Reddit thread questioning Tangere’s legitimacy, reflect public distrust in survey firms, amplified by fears of political manipulation. A 2024 fabricated report falsely claiming a Duterte ally led 2028 polls underscores this vulnerability. While Tangere’s transparency and MORES alignment are strengths, its digital methodology and lack of historical data cast shadows over its reliability.

Clans, Coalitions, and Chaos: The Political Battleground of 2028

The poll’s results—Sara Duterte at 35%, driven by Davao and Northern Mindanao, and Leni Robredo at 19%, backed by Metro Manila, Calabarzon, and Bicol—mirror entrenched regional divides. Davao, the Duterte family’s fortress, and Northern Mindanao reflect loyalty to Rodrigo Duterte’s legacy, despite his detention by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity. Robredo’s urban and liberal-leaning base echoes her 2016 and 2022 campaigns, signaling a polarized electorate. The Marcos-Duterte feud, once a 2022 alliance, has erupted into open conflict, fueled by Sara’s impeachment trial and Rodrigo’s arrest, as detailed in TIME’s coverage of the 2025 midterms.

Sara’s impeachment, alleging corruption and an assassination plot, threatens her 2028 eligibility. A Senate conviction requires a two-thirds majority, but the 2025 midterms bolstered Duterte allies like Senators Bong Go and Ronald dela Rosa, who topped Senate races, per CSIS analysis. Sara’s framing of her family as “dragged through the mud” taps into narratives of persecution, galvanizing her base. Meanwhile, a hypothetical Marcos endorsement of Robredo could erase Duterte’s lead, creating a statistical tie or a 2% Robredo edge, as reported by The Manila Times. This underscores the weight of elite alliances in a patronage-driven system.

The Duterte-Go tandem, with 90% of Duterte supporters backing Go, contrasts with Robredo-Aquino synergy, highlighting strategic voter alignment. Go’s “wild card” status—51% of his supporters pick Duterte as a second choice, 45% Robredo—positions him as a potential kingmaker. The 2025 midterms, with an 81.65% voter turnout, serve as a 2028 preview, shaping the Senate’s role in Sara’s trial and foreign policy. A Marcos-aligned Senate would strengthen U.S. ties, while a Duterte victory could tilt the balance toward China, echoing Rodrigo’s presidency.

Dynasties vs. Democracy: The Erosion of Institutional Trust

Philippine democracy, shackled by dynastic dominance, teeters on the edge. Political dynasties control over 80% of congressional seats, stifling competition and entrenching patronage. The 2025 midterms, where Duterte-backed candidates like Rodrigo (Davao mayor) and Sebastian (vice mayor) prevailed, expose this stranglehold. Sara’s lead, despite legal challenges, reflects a dynastic brand fueled by regional loyalty and populist rhetoric.

Electoral integrity faces mounting threats. The 2025 elections saw violence, vote-buying allegations, and voting machine malfunctions, raising doubts about the Commission on Elections (Comelec). Disinformation, including pro-Duterte social media campaigns attacking Marcos and the ICC, erodes trust. Sara’s unproven claims of “massive” 2025 electoral fraud, reported by TIME, amplify skepticism. The ICC’s detention of Rodrigo Duterte risks polarizing voters, with pro-Duterte narratives framing it as foreign meddling, potentially undermining electoral legitimacy.

The impeachment process, while constitutional, is vulnerable to partisan manipulation. A polarized Senate could turn Sara’s trial into a circus of loyalties rather than a pursuit of justice. This dynastic dominance and institutional fragility threaten to reduce democracy to a battle of personalities, weakening governance and public faith.

Charting the Path Forward: Safeguarding the 2028 Vote

Voters and Civil Society: Filipinos must demand transparency from pollsters and candidates, scrutinizing funding and methodologies. Groups like the Democratic Insights Group should expand voter education to counter disinformation and promote critical engagement with polls. Grassroots campaigns, as seen in 2025, can amplify anti-dynasty sentiment to challenge entrenched power.

Media Outlets: Journalists must rigorously verify poll data, avoiding amplification of unvetted surveys. Investigative reporting on dynastic influence, electoral irregularities, and foreign policy implications—especially U.S.-China tensions—can elevate discourse. Fact-checking inflammatory claims, as ABS-CBN did with a 2024 fake poll, is critical.

International Observers: Democracy advocates, including the U.S. and ASEAN, should monitor 2028 for manipulation, offering technical support to Comelec for secure voting systems. The ICC must navigate its role carefully to avoid perceptions of neocolonialism, which could fuel Duterte’s narrative.

Policymakers: Comelec must enforce stricter survey regulations, mandating demographic and funding transparency. Strengthening anti-dynasty laws, though politically challenging, is essential. Policies to bridge the digital divide can ensure inclusive polling and voting.

A Democracy at Stake: The Road to 2028

The Tangere poll, despite its flaws, unveils a Philippines wrestling with its democratic soul. Sara Duterte’s lead signals dynastic resilience, yet Robredo’s potential surge with Marcos’s backing reveals a fluid electorate. The risks—electoral manipulation, dynastic entrenchment, and institutional decay—threaten to deepen polarization, with ripple effects across Southeast Asia amid U.S.-China rivalries. Opportunities lie in empowered voters, vigilant media, and international support for fair elections. The 2028 race will test whether the Philippines can break free from its dynastic chains or remain bound to them, shaping the region’s democratic future.