Can Martin Romualdez Shatter the Speaker’s Curse in 2028?

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — July 1, 2025

IN A sweltering Leyte barangay hall, House Speaker Martin Romualdez hands a cash envelope to a fisherman’s widow, her gratitude palpable amid the hum of fans. This scene, replayed across 5 million households through the AKAP program, is Romualdez’s calling card—a testament to his reach. Yet in Manila’s elite circles, critics sneer: “Vote-buying.” The allegations cling like damp heat, threatening his 2028 presidential bid.

With a trust rating scraping 39% and polls pegging him at a mere 1.1%, Romualdez faces a gauntlet: a historical “Speaker’s Curse” that has felled every House Speaker aiming for Malacañang since EDSA. But armed with Marcos dynasty ties, the mighty Alyansa coalition, and digital-age campaign tools, could this Leyte scion defy the odds? In a nation that crowned Estrada and Duterte against all logic, Romualdez’s gambit is a high-stakes thriller waiting to unfold.

Smashing the Speaker’s Curse: Is History Just a Hiccup?

Political analyst Julio Teehankee’s “Speaker’s Curse” paints a grim picture: no House Speaker since the 1986 EDSA Revolution has won the presidency. Ramon Mitra (1992), Jose de Venecia (1998), and Manny Villar (2010) all crashed against this invisible barrier, their political machines no match for executive charisma or populist waves. Teehankee argues the Speaker’s role—mired in legislative deal-making—lacks the heroic sheen voters crave.

But is this curse a law of nature or a media-spun myth? Romualdez’s edge is undeniable. His cousinship to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. grants access to the Marcos dynasty’s vast network, from Ilocos to Leyte strongholds. The Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas, uniting LAKAS-CMD, NPC, PFP, NP, and NUP, dwarfs the coalitions of past Speakers. Unlike Mitra’s splintered LDP or Villar’s self-funded Nacionalista, Romualdez wields the Alyansa coalition, which dominated the 2025 midterms with 104 House seats, poised to reshape the 2028 presidential battlefield.

Add modern campaign tools—targeted Facebook and X ads, data-driven voter outreach—and the historical analogy frays. The Marcos-Duterte feud, with Sara Duterte’s public barbs, proves dynasties don’t just endure; they rewrite rules. The curse may be less a barrier than a media bias favoring governors’ photo-ops over legislators’ grind. Romualdez’s challenge is to flip the script.

From Scandal to Savior: Reframing AKAP and AICS

The AKAP and AICS controversies are a political landmine. Critics like Sara Duterte and Baguio Mayor Benjamin Magalong accuse Romualdez of turning these aid programs—serving 5 million “near poor” Filipinos in 2024—into vote-buying schemes, with inflated beneficiary lists favoring allies. His 39% trust rating, the lowest for any sitting Speaker, reflects the damage.

Yet Romualdez can turn this liability into an asset. Compare Sara Duterte’s confidential funds scandal, where vague “social services” spending drew fire. Romualdez could champion transparency—public audits, real-time beneficiary tracking—to rebrand AKAP as a model of grassroots empowerment. If executed boldly, he could cast himself as a reformer, not a schemer.

Low trust ratings aren’t fatal. Rodrigo Duterte’s 2016 campaign began in single digits, yet his raw authenticity won hearts. Romualdez’s 1.1% in the 2025 WR Numero survey is a floor, not a ceiling. A media pivot—think viral X posts of him aiding Leyte flood victims—could soften his “machine politician” image. Stories of personal connection, like sharing meals with constituents, could resonate in a nation craving authenticity.

Plotting the Path to Victory: Strategies for 2028

Romualdez’s 2028 bid hinges on three audacious plays: coalition dominance, crisis leadership, and image reinvention.

1. Coalition Juggernaut: Alyansa’s Iron Grip

The Alyansa coalition is Romualdez’s trump card. Uniting Marcos’s PFP, Lakas-CMD, and regional warlords, it’s a machine poised to steamroll rivals if unified through 2025. Factional splits could be his ally: Sara Duterte’s impeachment risks and Raffy Tulfo’s populist but party-less campaign (19% in polls) could fragment the opposition. Romualdez’s allies radiate quiet confidence, betting on a repeat of Ramos’s 1992 plurality triumph, leveraging Alyansa’s 104-seat midterm sweep to conquer a fractured 2028 field.

2. Crisis as Catalyst: Leading in Chaos

Philippine voters reward pragmatists in turbulent times. An economic crash—say, inflation soaring past 10%—or a South China Sea flare-up could spotlight Romualdez’s legislative chops. As Speaker, he’s navigated budgets and reforms through a fractious Congress. Claiming credit for stabilizing measures, like a jobs program or defense funding, could outshine Duterte’s thin executive record or Tulfo’s rhetorical flair. Crisis leadership could be his breakout moment.

3. Media Makeover: From Suit to Savior

Romualdez must shed the “machine politician” label. A puso-driven campaign—flooding X and local dailies with tales of Leyte families uplifted by his work—could humanize him. Picture a viral video: Romualdez, sleeves rolled up, joking with farmers over adobo. His team could borrow Estrada’s 1998 playbook: relentless grassroots engagement, paired with a slogan like “Leyte sa Puso, Bayan ang Dulo.” Amplifying AKAP success stories via influencers could shift perceptions.

Dynasty’s Double Edge: Marcos Muscle Meets Backlash

Philippine politics is a dynastic arena, and Romualdez is a knight backed by the Marcos dynasty. His cousin’s presidency offers resources, endorsements, and strongholds in Ilocos and Leyte. The Marcos-Duterte rift, with Sara’s accusations of assassination plots, could cripple her 29% poll lead if legal troubles (e.g., Rodrigo’s ICC case) escalate.

Yet dynasties invite anti-elite backlash. Romualdez must carve a distinct identity—competent, not entitled—to avoid being dismissed as Marcos’s pawn. Filipinos love underdogs; Filipinos rally behind underdogs; Estrada’s populist surge and Duterte’s improbable rise prove it. Romualdez’s quiet pragmatism could tap that hunger.

The Final Act: Rewriting History

The “Speaker’s Curse” is a formidable shadow, but shadows fade in the right light. Romualdez’s 1.1% polling is a starting gun, not a death knell. His Alyansa coalition could overwhelm a fractured field. AKAP, if reframed, could prove his grassroots cred. A crisis could elevate his legislative savvy. And a media blitz, rooted in Leyte’s heartlands, could make him relatable.

History curses those who mimic it. Romualdez’s test isn’t the past—it’s whether he can author a new playbook. In a nation that thrives on surprises, don’t bet against him just yet.