Justice or Intrusion? The Philippines’ Reckoning with the ICC’s Shadow

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — July 3, 2025

A Mother’s Grief, a Nation’s Divide

In a Manila slum, Lita Santos kneels before a makeshift shrine, her son’s photo cradled by fading marigolds. “Seven bullets,” she chokes out, “and they called it self-defense. Where’s my justice?” Her son, a jeepney driver, was one of thousands felled in Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war, a campaign that left 6,200 to 30,000 dead, depending on whose numbers you trust.

In Davao, 800 miles away, taxi driver Eddie Cruz grips his wheel, his voice sharp with defiance. “The ICC? Foreign meddlers,” he scoffs. “Duterte cleaned our streets. Let our courts decide.”

A recent OCTA Research survey lays bare the rift: 57% of Filipinos want to rejoin the International Criminal Court (ICC), but in Davao, support plunges to 16%.

Can a global court heal a nation’s wounds—or will it rip them open?

Can 1,200 Voices Speak for 110 Million?

The OCTA survey, conducted April 20-24, 2025, with 1,200 face-to-face interviews, claims a ±3% margin of error. But can a mere 1,200 respondents capture the soul of a nation splintered by trauma and loyalty?

Metro Manila, Luzon, and Visayas rally behind the ICC—over 60% in each region see it as a beacon of accountability.
Mindanao, Duterte’s heartland, revolts: 66% oppose rejoining, with Davao’s support at a meager 16%.
The young (25-34, 62% support) demand justice; the older (45-54, 50% support) hesitate, wary of foreign courts.
Wealthier ABC classes (67% support) lean global, while poorer D and E groups mirror the national 57-37 split.

These numbers don’t just reveal opinions—they map a nation’s fault lines: urban versus rural, hopeful versus haunted. RegionSupport (%)Opposition (%) Metro Manila 60 29 Balance Luzon 60 27 Visayas 60 31 Mindanao 30 66

Justice Denied: The Cry for The Hague

Lita’s anguish fuels the case for rejoining. Amnesty Philippines argues the ICC signals a commitment to accountability, especially for the drug war’s victims—widows, orphans, and communities scarred by “nanlaban” killings, where police claimed self-defense with eerie uniformity.

Former representative Teddy Casiño, cited in GMA News, calls the local system “rotten,” a labyrinth where the powerful escape. Official counts peg drug war deaths at over 6,200; human rights groups estimate up to 30,000.

When local courts falter, must global justice intervene? The ICC’s complementarity principle—acting only when national systems fail—offers hope for families like Lita’s.

They trusted the courts. They trusted the president. They trusted the system.

All failed them.

Sovereignty Under Siege: Mindanao’s Defiance

In Mindanao, the ICC is no savior—it’s an intruder. “Why let foreigners judge us?” Eddie demands, echoing 66% of his region. Critics, including Justice Secretary Jesus Crispin Remulla, quoted in The Diplomat, brand the ICC an “irritant,” insisting Philippine courts suffice.

A Daily Tribune commentary warns of powerful nations manipulating the ICC, a fear stoked by its focus on African and now Filipino leaders. Duterte’s arrest in The Hague in March 2025, noted in Wikipedia, paints him as a martyr in Davao’s streets.

Is the ICC justice—or neo-colonialism in a legal cloak? Mindanaoans, steeped in Duterte’s legacy, see rejoining as a betrayal of sovereignty.

The irony bites: a court built to end impunity now stands accused of overreach.

Marcos’ High-Wire Act, Duterte’s Long Shadow

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. walks a razor’s edge. He’s hinted at “openness to talks,” per GMA News, aligning with the 57% majority, but stresses sovereignty, as noted in ABS-CBN.

Is this diplomacy or delay? His claim of ongoing domestic investigations, cited in The Diplomat, rings hollow—where are the convictions?

Marcos’ balancing act contrasts with Duterte’s grip on Mindanao, where his arrest fuels resistance.

Ask yourself: who fears the ICC more—criminals or politicians?

Manila’s Dreams vs. Mindanao’s Doubts

Manila’s urban elite, sipping lattes in Makati, view the ICC as a global handshake. Mindanao’s farmers and drivers, scarred by conflict, cling to local answers.

This isn’t just a policy debate—it’s a clash of worldviews.

Metro Manila’s 60% support reflects trust in global norms.
Davao’s 16% reveals a region wary of outsiders.

The OCTA survey’s ±3% error margin underscores the fragility—57% support masks a volcanic divide.

A court meant to unite fractures a nation further.

Can justice be universal when trust is so local?

A Roadmap Through the Minefield

Policymakers must tread carefully.

Joint ICC-domestic tribunals, as suggested in Inquirer, could marry accountability with sovereignty, letting local courts lead while tapping global expertise.
Advocates must leave Manila’s echo chambers for Mindanao’s barrios, countering myths with grassroots campaigns framing the ICC as a partner, not a puppet-master.
Strengthening domestic courts is urgent—a “rotten” system fuels the case for The Hague.

For readers, the question burns: if not the ICC, what will deliver justice for the thousands slain?