Marcos’ Coconut Gamble: Redemption or Repetition?

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — July 6, 2025

1. The Stakes: A Nation’s Scarred Legacy

In the Philippines, where coconut farmers once bled for an industry hijacked by cronies, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. now promises redemption. His tour of a gleaming coconut processing plant in General Santos City—where Century Pacific Agricultural Ventures Inc. (CPAVI) churns out ₱10 billion in exports^[1]—was a carefully staged tableau of progress. But for farmers like Eduardo, 58, who remembers the Marcos-era levy scams that built no roads, the question lingers: Is this a new dawn or déjà vu?

The coconut industry’s wounds run deep. From the 1970s to the 1980s, Ferdinand Marcos Sr.’s regime imposed a levy that siphoned ₱70 billion from farmers^[2], funneled into crony-owned banks and San Miguel Corporation shares. The Supreme Court later ruled these funds state property, but distrust festers. Now, Marcos Jr. seeks to rebrand his family’s legacy through a “revitalized” industry—even as farmers await justice for the ₱150 billion in assets still contested^[3].

“We get receipts, not roads,” Eduardo scoffs as he surveys CPAVI’s stainless steel vats from his thatched hut.
Eduardo, 58, coconut farmer

2. Dissecting the Plan: Pragmatism or Pitfalls?

The Case for Optimism

Economic Alchemy: CPAVI’s pivot from raw copra to high-margin products (oil, flour, water) is a rare agrarian pragmatism. With exports to 82 countries and 4,500 jobs created^[4], the model proves value-added processing can work.
Rural Lifelines: The “Million Tree Project” and seedling distributions aim to reverse decades of neglect. The revised Coconut Farmers and Industry Development Plan (CFIDP) allocates 22% of CPAVI’s revenue to farmer support^[5]—a potential antidote to urban migration.
Global Ambition: As Indonesia grapples with a coconut crisis (prices up 50% in 2024)^[6], the Philippines eyes reclaiming its “coconut crown” through hybrid nurseries and streamlined agencies.

The Ghosts of History

Transparency Theater: The CFIDP’s pledge to make PCA the sole health program implementer is a start, but farmers recall how past levies vanished into crony coffers^[7].
Tokenism or Equity?: CPAVI’s ₱2.2 billion farmer support sounds impressive—until contrasted with its ₱10 billion revenue. Smallholders wonder if they’ll remain price-takers while conglomerates profit^[8].
Climate Blind Spots: Only 20% of the Coconut Farmers and Industry Trust Fund (CFITF) targets hybridization, despite aging trees yielding just 40 nuts annually (vs. a potential 150)^[9]. Monoculture risks loom.

3. The Human Cost: Rusted Machetes vs. Stainless Steel Vats

In General Santos, CPAVI’s factories hum with efficiency, but Eduardo’s reality is stark: “Will they buy my harvest?” The CFIDP’s scholarships (₱80,000/year) and health coverage (₱40,000) are lifelines, yet audits reveal only 15% of funds reached farmers in past programs^[10].

Labor advocates warn of wage theft in agro-plants—CPAVI’s jobs data masks precarious conditions. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s crisis—where 2,000 workers were laid off due to raw coconut shortages—offers a cautionary tale: Global demand giveth, and global demand taketh away^[11].

4. A Path Forward: Beyond Symbolism

For Marcos:

Mandate Farmer Equity: Thailand’s rice cooperatives prove smallholders thrive when they own processing stakes. Let co-ops hold shares in CPAVI-style plants^[12].
Blockchain the Levy: Use technology to track CFITF disbursements, rebuilding trust via transparency^[13].

For Industry:

Fair-Trade Certification: Premiumize exports while ensuring farmer premiums, mirroring global coffee models^[14].

For Critics:

From Protest to Policy: Push for a farmer seat on the Trust Fund Management Committee—currently dominated by finance bureaucrats^[15].

Marcos’ plan dangles a tantalizing “what if”—what if this time, the farmers win? But the real test isn’t whether he can plant a million trees. It’s whether he can uproot a century of exploitation.

As Eduardo puts it: “We’ve heard promises before. Show us the money—and the justice.“