Rice Wars: Marcos and Pangilinan Duel for Food Security

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — July 10, 2025

IN Nueva Ecija, the rice bowl of the Philippines, Mang Juan, a weathered farmer, watches his palay spoil under a merciless sun. Forced to sell his wet harvest to traders at a paltry P8 per kilo—half the cost of production—he faces a brutal choice: sell at a loss or let his crop rot. His plight, echoed across the nation’s farmlands, fuels a fiery debate between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan.

While Marcos pours faith into concrete and steel to modernize agriculture, Pangilinan battles for the flesh and blood of farmers—yet both risk failure if corruption and inefficiency drain their plans dry.

Showdown of Strategies: Decoding the Central Disputes

The National Food Authority’s (NFA) palay buying prices—P18 for wet and P19–P23 for dry—dangle as a lifeline, but they’re a frayed rope for farmers. With production costs at P14–P15 per kilo, farmers like Mang Juan often lose money, especially when traders exploit their lack of drying facilities, offering as little as P8 per kilo [Tribune.net.ph].

The math is cruel: at P13 per kilo for milled rice, as Pangilinan notes, farmers bleed with every sack sold [Inquirer.net]. This pits farmer survival against consumer affordability, particularly for the poor relying on Marcos’ P20 per kilo rice program, a lifeline for indigent families but a fiscal tightrope risking shortages [Philstar.com].

Marcos’ vision is a top-down gamble on modernization: P63.9 million rice processing plants, like the one in Nueva Ecija, and hundreds of dryers aim to empower farmers to sell dry palay at better prices [Inquirer.net]. He argues infrastructure will break traders’ chokehold, letting farmers store and process their harvest. Yet, this long-term bet feels like a distant mirage for farmers drowning in debt today.

Pangilinan, in contrast, demands immediate relief through the Sagip Saka Law, allowing local governments to buy directly from farmers for school feeding programs and relief goods, bypassing traders and NFA bottlenecks [Inquirer.net]. His decentralized, farmer-first approach hinges on local governments—often riddled with inefficiency or corruption.

Promises Under Fire: Dissecting Marcos and Pangilinan’s Plans

Marcos’ Blueprint: Stability or Stalled Progress?

Pros:

Marcos’ infrastructure push—mobile soil labs, processing plants, and dryers—tackles a root issue: farmers’ inability to store wet palay forces them into traders’ hands at rock-bottom prices.
The Nueva Ecija facility, processing 2–3 tons per hour, could boost bargaining power, while stable NFA prices (P18–P23) shield farmers from market swings [Inquirer.net].
The P20 rice program, targeting indigent families, seniors, and persons with disabilities, eases the burden on the poor, for whom rice consumes 20% of their budget [Philstar.com].

Cons:

The NFA’s prices may still trap farmers in losses. Experts like Ted Mendoza argue that prices below P22 for cleaned palay or P25 for dried palay fail to cover costs, pushing farmers toward debt or abandonment [Philstar.com].
The P20 rice program demands P15–P16 billion to sustain higher palay purchases, risking fiscal strain or shortages if supply falters [Rappler.com].
Infrastructure, while promising, takes years to scale, leaving farmers like Mang Juan vulnerable now.

Pangilinan’s Crusade: Empowerment or Bureaucratic Quagmire?

Pros:

Pangilinan’s Sagip Saka Law offers a direct lifeline, letting local governments buy palay at fair prices for public programs, ensuring farmers earn above P15 per kilo to cover costs [Inquirer.net].
His proposed buffer fund and inter-agency coordination aim to shield farmers from price crashes, addressing immediate distress.
Linking farm produce to school feeding programs could also improve nutrition for poor children, creating a virtuous cycle.

Cons:

Local government inefficiencies and corruption threaten to derail the plan. The Sagip Saka Law, enacted in 2019, remains underutilized, casting doubt on its scalability [Inquirer.net].
Without robust oversight, funds could be siphoned off, leaving farmers unpaid or prices unfairly low.
Pangilinan’s plan also sidesteps long-term infrastructure needs, potentially limiting its impact if traders continue to dominate markets.

Ripple Effects: Farmers, Consumers, and a Fragile Economy

Farmers: Liberation or Looming Exodus?

Marcos’ dryers and processing plants could transform lives by letting farmers like Mang Juan sell dry palay at P23 instead of P8 [Tribune.net.ph]. Yet, if prices stay below P22, as experts warn, losses will persist, driving farmers to abandon fields [Philstar.com].

In Nueva Ecija, reports of P8 per kilo sales highlight the desperation pushing farmers to less labor-intensive crops or urban migration. Pangilinan’s direct procurement could offer immediate relief, but only if local governments act swiftly and transparently—otherwise, it’s another broken promise.

Poor Consumers: Lifeline or Looming Shortages?

The P20 rice program is a beacon for the poor, slashing costs for families where rice is a staple [Philstar.com]. Yet, its sustainability hangs by a thread. The NFA’s P15 billion budget for P23 per kilo purchases may fall short, and supply shortages could spike prices, hitting the poor hardest [Rappler.com].

Pangilinan’s plan, by boosting farmer incomes, could stabilize supply but risks higher retail prices if not paired with subsidies, potentially undermining affordability.

Economy: Growth or Gathering Storm?

Heavy subsidies like the P20 rice program could strain public finances, diverting funds from health or education. The NFA’s fiscal constraints—needing P15–P16 billion for higher palay prices—risk market distortion, as seen with the Rice Liberalization Law’s impact on low farmgate prices [Philstar.com].

Supporting farmers could curb rural poverty and urban migration, boosting stability, but Pangilinan’s buffer fund needs strict regulation to avoid enriching corrupt officials instead of farmers.

A Roadmap Out of Crisis: Bold Solutions for a Broken System

To end this cycle of despair, the Philippines must forge a hybrid path blending Marcos’ infrastructure with Pangilinan’s farmer-first reforms:

Marry Infrastructure with Price Supports: Pair processing plants with a temporary P25 per kilo price floor to ensure farmers break even while facilities scale up.
Enforce Sagip Saka with Ironclad Oversight: Mandate transparent audits and NFA monitoring to curb local corruption, ensuring direct procurement delivers fair prices [Inquirer.net].
Launch Conditional Cash Transfers: Tie aid to climate-resilient practices like organic farming or drought-resistant seeds, shielding farmers during price crashes while promoting sustainability.
Crack Down on Traders: Enforce strict price monitoring to prevent exploitation, ensuring farmers like Mang Juan aren’t forced to sell at P8 per kilo [Tribune.net.ph].

A Nation at the Crossroads: Act Now or Pay Later

The Philippines’ food security teeters on a knife’s edge. Will its leaders heed the lessons of history—decades of failed land reforms and farmer neglect—or repeat the same mistakes? Mang Juan’s harvest, and millions like it, cannot endure more half-measures.

Marcos and Pangilinan must unite their visions, blending infrastructure with immediate relief, to save farmers from ruin and the poor from hunger. The fields are wilting, the plates are emptying, and the clock is ticking.

Key Citations

Sagip Saka Law: republic act no. 11321
Inquirer.net: Marcos, Pangilinan agree on farmland agenda – Details the core debate, NFA prices, and Sagip Saka Law.
Philstar.com (2025): President Marcos: P20/kilo rice here to stay – Discusses the P20 rice program and its consumer impact.
Philstar.com (2022): Group backs NFA plan to hike buying price for palay – Expert opinions on adequate palay prices.
Rappler.com: Marcos Jr., NFA Council set buying price range for palay – Fiscal constraints and NFA budget needs.
Tribune.net.ph: Palay prices should be P18, not P8, Marcos says – Highlights trader exploitation and low farmgate prices.