Hontiveros’ Lone Stand: Can Aquino and Pangilinan’s Defection Sink the Opposition?

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — July 12, 2025

IN THE Philippines’ Senate, principles bend like a Manila taxi meter, and the latest contortions by Senators Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino suggest their hunger for power outstrips their thirst for justice. As the 20th Congress looms, the opposition’s brightest stars seem poised to trade battle cries for committee chairs, leaving Senator Risa Hontiveros to play the lone warrior in a drama that’s half The West Wing, half Game of Thrones. This isn’t mere Senate reshuffling—it’s a live autopsy of Philippine democracy, with the poor watching from the gallery, wondering if anyone recalls their existence.

The Pragmatism Gambit: Tacticians or Turncoats?

Pangilinan and Aquino, riding high from their 2025 midterm triumphs—second and fifth place, respectively—are reportedly eyeing the Senate majority bloc. Their justification? “Hunger has no color,” Pangilinan proclaims, cloaking ambition in altruistic rhetoric (GMA News, 2025). Joining the majority could secure them influential committee roles—agriculture for Pangilinan, education for Aquino—where they might shape policies to feed the hungry and educate the young. It’s a compelling pitch: why shout from the minority’s sidelines when you can steer the ship?

But this “pragmatism” smells of expediency. Their electoral success stemmed from voters craving a robust opposition to counter the Marcos-Duterte feud. Aquino’s second-place finish wasn’t a mandate for cozying up to the administration; it was a call for resistance (Rappler, 2025). By dining at the majority’s table, they risk legitimizing a regime whose allies limped to six of twelve Senate seats in 2025, far short of the expected eight (CSIS, 2025). This move could bolster Marcos’ shaky grip, especially as he faces the impeachment storm against Vice President Sara Duterte.

Their campaign alongside Hontiveros promised to “tindig” (stand firm) against dynastic excess (Inquirer, 2025). Now, they’re tiptoeing to the majority’s tune. If hunger has no color, neither does betrayal—and voters may not forgive this sleight of hand.

The Lone Warrior’s Act: Hontiveros’ High-Stakes Gamble

Risa Hontiveros, the progressive standard-bearer, refuses to cry foul over her allies’ flirtation with the majority. “No betrayal done,” she declares, vowing to “strengthen the opposition, inside and outside the Senate” (Inquirer, 2025). It’s a moral stand worthy of a Kristof column, blending principle with strategic patience—or perhaps a miscalculation of Philippine politics’ brutal arithmetic.

Hontiveros’ openness to an independent path, sidestepping both a Duterte-aligned minority and the majority, positions her as a rare independent in a Senate that thrives on binary loyalties (Manila Bulletin, 2025). Her focus on 2028 aims to rally the 63% of millennial and Gen Z voters who fueled the opposition’s 2025 resurgence (CSIS, 2025). Social media echoes her resolve, with supporters like @AltIndayBadiday proclaiming, “HINDI KA NAG-İİSA SENRI, NANDİTO KAMI!” (You are not alone, Senator, we are here!) (X Post, 2025).

Yet principle carries a price. The Senate’s power structure favors bloc loyalty, and Hontiveros risks marginalization without Pangilinan and Aquino. Her legislative clout, especially on human rights, could wane (Philstar, 2025). Her neutrality in the Duterte impeachment trial—despite past clashes over confidential funds—may paint her as impartial or indecisive, weakening her influence in a Senate poised to decide the vice president’s fate (Inquirer, 2025).

In a political arena that buries lone warriors, Hontiveros’ defiance is noble but perilous.

From ‘Tindig’ to ‘Tiptoe’: The Opposition’s Identity Crisis

This isn’t Philippine politics’ first betrayal rodeo. Juan Ponce Enrile’s 1986 defection from Marcos to Aquino, only to later realign with the establishment, set the template for Senate shape-shifting (Philippine Political History, JSTOR). Rodrigo Duterte’s alliance-flipping—Beijing-friendly one day, U.S.-leaning the next—proves loyalty is a devalued currency (Foreign Affairs, 2017). Pangilinan and Aquino’s potential defection merely updates this farce for the TikTok era.

The data sharpens the stakes. Aquino’s 2025 vote haul signaled a clamor for opposition voices, yet his pivot risks muffling that cry (Rappler, 2025). Hontiveros claims she’s “strengthening the opposition,” but with allies like these, who needs enemies?

The opposition’s 2025 gains—bolstered by Leni Robredo’s Naga mayoral win—offered a chance to challenge the Marcos-Duterte duopoly (CSIS, 2025). Instead, Pangilinan and Aquino’s dalliance with the majority threatens to fracture that momentum, turning the opposition into a retirement home for has-beens chasing committee gavels.

The 2028 Chessboard: Resistance or Irrelevance?

The Senate’s realignment will shape 2028. Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial, requiring sixteen of twenty-four votes to convict, hangs in the balance (Philstar, 2025). Pro-Duterte senators like Bato dela Rosa and Imee Marcos hold sway, and Aquino-Pangilinan’s bloc choice could tip the scales. A conviction would eliminate Duterte, the current frontrunner with a 30% poll lead, reshaping the presidential race.

But a fragmented opposition risks ceding ground to dynastic forces, especially if voters see Pangilinan and Aquino as opportunists (CSIS, 2025). Hontiveros’ grassroots push could galvanize the 71% of online discourse driven by younger voters, who favor non-traditional candidates (CSIS, 2025). Yet her isolation may limit her to symbolic gestures, unable to counter a unified majority’s legislative juggernaut.

The opposition’s challenge is existential: Is it a resistance movement or a collection of pragmatists waiting for their turn at the trough?

The Knockout Punch: A Call to Clarity

If the opposition wants to win in 2028, it must decide: Is it a force for change or a retirement home for senators eyeing committee chairs? Pangilinan and Aquino must clarify whether their “pragmatism” serves the poor or merely their political survival. Hontiveros, for all her moral clarity, must build coalitions to amplify her voice, not echo in an empty chamber.

For poor Filipinos, this isn’t about Senate blocs—it’s about whether any politician remembers them between elections. The Senate’s drama, with its betrayals and posturing, risks drowning out their voices. As the 20th Congress opens on July 28, the nation watches not just for who joins which bloc, but for who will fight for those without a seat at the table.

In this Shakespearean farce, the tragedy is that the poor remain the audience, not the players.

Key Citations

Rappler (2025) – Aquino and Pangilinan’s 2025 election results.
GMA News (2025) – Pangilinan on joining the majority, “Hunger has no color.”
Inquirer (2025) – Hontiveros on no betrayal and opposition strength.
Manila Bulletin (2025) – Hontiveros on bloc options.
Philstar (2025) – Senate blocs and committee alignments.
CSIS (2025) – Analysis of 2025 Senate elections and 2028 implications.
Inquirer (2025) – Drilon on Aquino-Pangilinan’s committee focus.
X Post (2025) – @AltIndayBadiday supporting Hontiveros.
JSTOR – Enrile’s defection in Philippine politics.
Foreign Affairs (2017) – Duterte’s alliance-flipping.