Hontiveros as Champion, Trillanes as Kingmaker: A Risky Road to 2028

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — August 5, 2025

IN A cramped Manila barangay, a widow named Katrina clutches a faded photo of her husband, killed in Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war—a victim of the extrajudicial killings that left thousands dead. She whispers, “I want justice, but I also want a future.” Her plea captures the moral and political tightrope facing the Philippine opposition as former Senator Antonio Trillanes IV endorses Senator Risa Hontiveros as the “best bet” against Vice President Sara Duterte in the 2028 presidential race.

Trillanes’ move is a Molotov cocktail lobbed into an already fractured opposition—a bold stand for accountability or a suicidal purity test that could hand dynastic rule to the Dutertes for decades. Is Trillanes the Philippines’ last honest man—or the architect of its democratic collapse?

The Human Cost: A Nation Scarred

For ordinary Filipinos like Katrina, the stakes are visceral. The drug war’s body count—estimates range from 6,000 to 30,000—left families shattered, communities terrorized, and trust in institutions eroded. Farmers displaced by oligarchs tied to political dynasties, like the Dutertes, face similar despair, their lands seized for cronies’ profit.

Trillanes’ endorsement of Hontiveros, a fierce human rights advocate, promises justice for these wounds. Her Senate probes into Duterte’s abuses and her vocal support for the International Criminal Court (ICC) resonate with those demanding accountability. Yet, the opposition’s infighting risks alienating the very people it claims to champion.

Katrina’s voice trembles: “If they keep fighting each other, who fights for us?” Trillanes’ strategy could galvanize the aggrieved—or leave them voiceless as moderates abandon a divided cause.

Power Dynamics: A Calculated Burn?

Trillanes’ endorsement is less about Hontiveros’ electability—her 1% poll numbers pale against Sara Duterte’s 34%—and more about reshaping the opposition’s soul. By branding Leni Robredo and Bam Aquino as compromised for their conciliatory gestures toward Sara Duterte, Trillanes draws a line: no compromise with “evil forces.”

This is a power play disguised as principle. He’s not just betting on Hontiveros; he’s positioning himself as the opposition’s moral arbiter, potentially its last man standing if the coalition implodes. His critique of Robredo’s 2024 meeting with Sara and Aquino’s Senate majority alignment is sharp but reeks of selective outrage.

Trillanes himself allied with Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, a figure as polarizing as Duterte, to oppose the latter in 2016. This hypocrisy undercuts his moral high ground, suggesting a calculated burn of bridges to claim leadership of a purer, if smaller, opposition.

Historical Echoes: Purity’s Peril

Trillanes’ gambit echoes global progressive failures where ideological rigidity doomed broader coalitions. In the UK, Jeremy Corbyn’s uncompromising socialism alienated Labour’s moderates, paving the way for Boris Johnson’s 2019 landslide. In the US, the “Bernie-or-Bust” movement’s refusal to rally behind Hillary Clinton in 2016 helped deliver Trump’s victory.

Trillanes risks a similar fate. Hontiveros’ 15 million votes in the 2022 Senate race, while respectable, lag far behind Sara Duterte’s 32 million as vice president. The math is brutal: moral clarity rarely trumps electoral arithmetic. By alienating Robredo’s “pink” movement and Aquino’s Liberal Party base, Trillanes could shrink the opposition into an ideological ghetto, unable to breach the 40% vote ceiling needed to win.

The Case for Trillanes’ Ruthlessness

Trillanes’ “no compromise” stance has undeniable strengths. His insistence on ICC accountability for Duterte’s alleged crimes forces a reckoning that Robredo’s cordiality and Aquino’s Senate pragmatism sidestep. Hontiveros’ unblemished record—never photographed cozying up to Sara, always vocal on human rights—offers a clean break from the Duterte era.

In a nation where troll farms exploit “hypocrisy footage,” her consistency is a strategic asset. If a scandal, like an ICC indictment or economic collapse, erodes Sara’s popularity, Trillanes’ early bet on Hontiveros could look prescient, rallying progressives and diaspora funders.

Yet, the weakness is glaring: Hontiveros’ narrow base—urban, activist, middle-class—lacks the geographic and class reach to challenge Sara’s populist machine, especially in Mindanao and the Solid North.

The Fatal Flaws

Trillanes’ strategy teeters on contradictions. His hypocrisy trap—condemning Robredo and Aquino while ignoring his own Arroyo alliance—invites skepticism. Why demand purity now when he played coalition politics before?

More critically, Hontiveros’ electability is a mirage. Her 1% national poll numbers and single-digit support in key regions signal a ceiling that Trillanes ignores. By framing Robredo’s civility as betrayal, he misreads the electorate’s mood.

Filipinos, weary of polarization, may crave unity over righteousness, as surveys prioritizing jobs and inflation suggest. Trillanes’ refusal to offer a coalition strategy leaves Hontiveros isolated, her Akbayan party too small to rival the Liberal Party’s machinery or Sara’s local networks.

Shadow Scenarios: Triumph or Tragedy?

If Trillanes’ gamble succeeds, a Hontiveros presidency could force ICC trials for Duterte, a historic win for justice. But her progressive agenda risks legislative gridlock, as alienated moderates and entrenched oligarchs block reforms. The opposition’s base—youth activists, urban professionals—would cheer, but rural voters and landed elites might recoil, labeling her a “radical.”

If Trillanes loses, the fallout is dire. A fractured opposition, with Robredo or Aquino running separately, could hand Sara a plurality victory with less than 40% of the vote. Dynastic rule—Dutertes, Marcoses, Arroyos—would tighten its grip, potentially for decades.

Is this the hill worth dying on?

The Stark Choice

Trillanes’ endorsement is a moral manifesto masquerading as an electoral strategy. It’s a cry for justice that could inspire a movement or doom it to irrelevance. For Filipinos like Katrina, the widow seeking closure, the opposition’s choice is not just political—it’s existential.

In the face of evil, do you cling to purity, risking defeat, or embrace the messy coalitions that might actually win? Trillanes bets on the former, but history and math warn against it. The Philippines’ democracy hangs in the balance, and the clock is ticking toward 2028.