Grand Coalition or Grand Delusion? The Opposition’s 2028 Suicide Pact

12 Egos, 1 Ticket, 0 Chance: The Math of Philippine Unity

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — November 5, 2025

“Two clans that once kissed on stage now trade cocaine jokes and assassination plots—while the ‘opposition’ argues over who gets the presidential suite in a palace they haven’t built.”

COMING 2028: Duterte vs. Marcos II: Blood, Bribes, and Betrayal. Starring: a jailed ex-president’s daughter, a flood-scandal cousin, and an opposition too busy stabbing itself to notice the knife. Prof. Ranjit Rye leaks the script: one coalition or total annihilation.

I. Rye’s Wake-Up Call: Obvious, Tragic, and Ignored

Prof. Ranjit Rye’s diagnosis is brutally simple: the Dutertes are running a machine, not a movement. Davao is their fortress, Mindanao their vote factory, and every barangay captain from Tagum to Tawi-Tawi owes them a favor—or a fear.

The 2025 midterm elections weren’t a referendum—they were a stress test. The Duterte engine passed with flying colors, humiliating Marcos allies while Sara Duterte’s impeachment circus barely dented her numbers. OCTA Research polls show her still leading hypothetical 2028 matchups, even as Pulse Asia records a slight dip.

The opposition? A rainbow coalition of convenience that fractures the moment someone mentions vice presidency.

History laughs. In 2022, Leni Robredo’s pink wave drowned in a sea of red and green because the anti-Duterte vote split six ways. Rye’s call for a Grand Coalition isn’t rocket science—it’s remedial arithmetic. Unity beat Ferdinand Marcos Sr. in the 1986 People Power Revolution. Disunity handed Ferdinand Marcos Jr. the palace in 2022.

The Dutertes aren’t invincible. They’re just organized. The opposition isn’t weak. It’s just addicted to self-sabotage.

**How to Lose an Election in 47 Factions**

II. Battlefield 2028: Three Camps, One Grave

A. The Duterte Death Star – Populism on Steroids

Smart Play: Double down on the bailiwick blueprint. Flood Davao with infra, TikTok with tough-talk edits, and Congress with loyalists who’ll block International Criminal Court (ICC) extradition till kingdom come. A Sara–Christopher “Bong” Go tandem would lock Mindanao and scare the Visayas into submission.

Desperate Gambit: Revive the drug war rhetoric—now with due process!
Likely Blunder: Overconfidence. If Sara keeps flirting with assassination fantasies on live TV, even loyalists might start googling “Raffy Tulfo ratings.”

B. The Grand Coalition – A Miracle in Search of a Spine

Smart Play: Build a platform, not a personality cult. Pair a non-dynast like Raffy Tulfo (who tops polls without a famous last name) with a progressive firebrand like Risa Hontiveros. Run on jobs, justice, and jailing the killers—simple, sellable, radioactive to dynasts.

Desperate Gambit: Beg the Liberal Party to sit this one out. (Good luck.)
Likely Blunder: Letting Grace Poe or Bam Aquino anywhere near the ticket. The moment it smells like Yellow nostalgia, Mindanao voters reach for their Duterte shirts.

Brutal Truth: This coalition only works if egos are euthanized. The left wants revolution. The center wants respectability. The influencers want clout. Someone has to lose—and fast.

C. The Marcos Shadow Empire – Charter Change or Bust

Smart Play (Desperation Edition): Groom Martin Romualdez as the “continuity candidate” — yes, the one drowning in flood-control corruption headlines, but still breathing. Better a scandal-scarred puppet than no puppet at all. From Malacañang’s shadows, Marcos can prop him up with Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023–2028 growth stats — if they ever materialize — and sell the only thing left: “At least we’re not the Dutertes.”

Desperate Gambit: Sneak term extension into a Charter Change (Cha-Cha) package disguised as “economic liberalization.” Sara already called it “in his DNA”—the only question is whether Congress has the votes or the shame.

Likely Blunder: Believing the United States (US) will bankroll a constitutional coup. Washington wants a reliable anti-China ally, not a banana republic rerun. Push too hard, and the Filipino diaspora starts wiring pink ballots home.

III. The Geopolitical Thunderdome: Superpowers Pick Sides

The South China Sea isn’t just water—it’s leverage. Marcos courts US bases and Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) pacts. The Dutertes flirt with Beijing’s infrastructure cash.

A Grand Coalition could weaponize this split:

Promise Washington a loyal partner
Promise Manila jobs without the strings

The diaspora—12 million strong, $38 billion in remittances—tilts anti-Duterte after years of drug war horror stories. One viral ICC arrest video and the Overseas Filipino Worker (OFW) vote flips.

China quietly funds whoever keeps EDCA bases negotiable. In 2028, foreign policy won’t be a debate—it’ll be a bidding war.

IV. Endgame Scenarios & Parting Shots

Outcome	Result
Duterte Victory	Sara wins, her father’s Hague cell a grim campaign prop. ICC probes into the family deepen, but the drug war reboots with better PR—fewer bodies, more spin. The Philippines becomes Davao writ large: orderly, fearful, and broke, with The Hague’s shadow fueling the paranoia.
Marcos Succession	Romualdez slides in. Cha-Cha passes. Term limits become “flexible.” Democracy dies with a PowerPoint on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).
Grand Coalition Miracle	Tulfo–Hontiveros wins by 3 points. First 100 days = chaos: impeachments, probes, sore losers. But dynasties crack. Republic breathes.

Recommendations, Served Cold:

To the Dutertes: Stop the assassination cosplay. Your base loves toughness, not theatrics.
To the Coalition: Pick a ticket by December 2026 or perish. No more “consultations” with 47 factions.
To Marcos: Want legacy? Pass an anti-dynasty law and retire gracefully. History remembers Corazon Aquino, not Ferdinand Sr.’s enablers.
To Voters: Demand platforms, not surnames. Your ballot is a weapon—stop handing it to the highest bidder.

In 2028, the Philippines will either break the dynasty curse—or cement it for another generation.
Prof. Rye has drawn the battle lines.
The only question: Who’s brave enough to cross them?