The Tycoon’s Technocrat Tango: Selling Rebound While the Gallery Burns and the Peso Bleeds
By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — December 21, 2025
UYY, the coveted Upper Middle-Income Country (UMIC) status—the administration’s favorite spreadsheet cell, that shimmering economic Holy Grail chased with all the fervor of a gambler convinced the next roll will finally break the bank. Finance Secretary Frederick Go beams with optimism, declaring the Philippines “set to reach” it by 2026, as if a few decimal points in GNI per capita could magically erase the daily grind of millions. But let’s dissect this statistical parlor trick with the precision it deserves.
The World Bank’s threshold hovers around $4,496 (adjusted annually for inflation). In 2024, the Philippines hit a “record-high” $4,470—just $26 short, tantalizingly close. Yet this “national average” is a cruel illusion, a mean that masks grotesque inequality. While tycoons toast in Manila’s skyscrapers, millions scrape by in flood-prone slums where food insecurity afflicts over 44% of households.
A few dollars tacked onto the per capita figure mean nothing when the peso has plunged to historic lows—near 59 to the dollar in late 2024, still languishing in the high 58s as of December 2025. This isn’t progress; it’s a mirage sustained by remittances and consumption, not genuine productivity.
The economy is a car speeding toward a milestone painted on the road, while the engine is being stripped for parts by its own mechanics—corruption, depreciation, and elite capture.
How many Filipinos feel “upper middle-income” when typhoons turn streets into rivers because flood-control funds vanished into ghost projects? The UMIC label is a hollow crown indeed—a technical obsession that distracts from the historic betrayal of public trust.
The Tycoon’s Technocrat Circus: Frederick Go Peddles Hope While the Peso Burns and the Cabinet Implodes
Enter Frederick Go, the tycoon-turned-technocrat, parachuted from real estate boardrooms (Robinsons Land) into the Finance Secretary’s chair—a “pro-business” choice meant to signal stability amid chaos. He peddles unwavering hope: grow the economy, create jobs, hurdle the threshold, and voilà—no one left behind. Yet even he admits the “dollar problem,” the peso’s weakness that erodes GNI gains faster than growth can build them.
Here is a man trying to sell a masterpiece while the gallery is on fire. As Go spins tales of rebound and steady growth, the Marcos administration reels from:
- Billions diverted in flood-control scandals via pork-barrel insertions
- Resignations and massive cabinet shakeups
- Markets spooked by graft revelations and rumored trillions in stock losses
His optimism isn’t leadership; it’s performative distraction, a rhetorical shield for investors while structural rot festers. Go’s contradictions glare: acknowledge the currency trap, yet refuse exchange-rate predictions while proclaiming blind hope. It’s the sycophant’s script—reassure oligarchs benefiting from PPP reforms, centralize power under DOF, build a legacy on an illusory milestone.
But who is truly being reassured? Certainly not the millions left behind in his “inclusive” vision.
The Metastatic Trillions: How ₱8.8 Trillion in Plunder Keeps the Philippines Permanently Lower Middle-Income
Corruption isn’t a side issue in the UMIC delay—it is the primary throttle, a metastasizing cancer devouring growth from within. Estimates suggest up to ₱8.8 trillion plundered over the past decade—enough to eclipse entire national budgets.
Direct links to 2024–2025 scandals:
- Flood-control funds siphoned through ghost projects and overpricing
- Substandard builds failing during typhoons
- Annual losses from graft: ₱700 billion to ₱1.4 trillion in some years
Now, the “What If” that should infuriate every Filipino:
Had this cancer been excised…
- Functional, climate-resilient flood systems preventing billions in annual losses
- Zero classroom backlog (currently 165,000 short)
- Dramatically lower food insecurity and poverty
- Stable peso attracting productive FDI
- UMIC status likely achieved years earlier—perhaps by 2019 as once projected
Instead, plunder leaves us vulnerable, stagnant, betrayed. How much more must be stolen before outrage turns to action?
The Peers and the Pariah: A Comparative Shaming
Spare us global averages. Judge the Philippines against ASEAN peers who started from similar or worse positions: Country 2024 GNI per Capita (approx.) Status Key Advantage Thailand ~$7,345 Secure UMIC Diversified manufacturing Indonesia ~$4,925 Recently UMIC Sustained industrial growth Vietnam ~$4,717 Closing fast on UMIC Export-oriented manufacturing leap Philippines ~$4,470 Stuck in lower middle Remittances and services crutch
Once second only to Japan in Asia, we now lag as peers surge. The stinging “Vietnam Leap”—a former war-torn nation surpassing us through factories and exports while we cling to oligarchic comfort and diaspora dollars. Shameful regression.
Exporting Heroes, Importing Excuses: Why Remittances Are the Philippines’ Favorite Structural Shame
Remittances aren’t a strength—they’re a structural narcotic, addicting government to easy inflows (~8–10% of GDP) while postponing the pain of building a productive economy.
This reliance is national failure incarnate:
- Exporting talent because we can’t create viable jobs at home
- Fractured families, glorified heroism masking root causes
- Vulnerability to global shifts, no diversification
A real nation builds factories, not begs its diaspora to prop up illusory averages.
The Path Not Taken (And The One Required): Recommendations with Teeth
Enough vague outrage. Here are the institutional shifts demanded—non-negotiable for survival:
- Stable Macroeconomics, Not Just Headlines
End the peso’s joke status (58–59+). Tie currency strength directly to ruthless anti-corruption drives and productive FDI attraction—no more hot-money volatility. - Export-Oriented Manufacturing Pivot
Follow Vietnam’s model. Our chronic sectoral underperformance is a deliberate choice: oligarchic monopolies over national development. Incentivize industry aggressively. - Institutions Stronger Than Men
Independent, ferocious anti-corruption bodies. Swift prosecution of flood-scandal perpetrators. Judicial reform for speed and impartiality. Recover trillions. No more scandal fatigue—jail the plunderers.
This isn’t mere critique; it’s provocation. The UMIC dream delays because governance repeatedly fails the people. Excise the cancer now, or watch peers surge ahead while we drown—in floods, debt, and moral bankruptcy.
The Filipino people deserve far better than hollow crowns, stolen trillions, and empty Excel promises. Demand it now—before another future is plundered.
If UMIC is your wet dream, reality is my nightmare. Don’t try to hide it behind an Excel sheet.
– Barok
Source:
- “Forthwith” to Farce: How the Senate is Killing Impeachment—And Why Enrile’s Right (Even If You Can’t Trust Him)
- “HINDI AKO NAG-RESIGN!”
- “I’m calling you from my new Globe SIM. Send load!”
- “Mahiya Naman Kayo!” Marcos’ Anti-Corruption Vow Faces a Flood of Doubt
- “Meow, I’m calling you from my new Globe SIM!”
- “PLUNDER IS OVERRATED”? TRY AGAIN — IT’S A CALCULATED KILL SHOT
- “Shimenet”: The Term That Broke the Internet and the Budget
- “We Did Not Yield”: Marcos’s Stand and the Soul of Filipino Sovereignty
- “We Gather Light to Scatter”: A Tribute to Edgardo Bautista Espiritu
- $150M for Kaufman to Spin a Sinking Narrative
- $2 Trillion by 2050? Manila’s Economic Fantasy Flimsier Than a Taho Cup
- $26 Short of Glory: The Philippines’ Economic Hunger Games Flop
KWEBA ni BAROK 
Leave a comment