ASEAN’s Tightrope Walk: Navigating the South China Sea Conflict

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo

In the opaque corridors of international diplomacy, silence can be as deafening as a shout. For eight years, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has maintained a muted stance on the landmark 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling that rejected China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea. The recent clashes between Chinese and Filipino vessels have brought this silence into sharper relief, prompting President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to rally ASEAN for a more assertive role. Yet, the regional bloc’s quietude persists, raising questions about its strategy and the implications for the Philippines and the wider region.

A Historical Backdrop: The 2016 Arbitral Tribunal Ruling

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague delivered a ruling that invalidated China’s sweeping claims to the South China Sea, based on the so-called nine-dash line. The tribunal upheld the Philippines’ sovereign rights within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), as defined by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The ruling was a significant legal victory for the Philippines and set a precedent for the rule of law in maritime disputes.

However, China’s outright rejection of the ruling and its continued assertive actions in the South China Sea have posed a challenge not just for the Philippines, but for all Southeast Asian nations with stakes in these waters.

The Silent Strategy of ASEAN: A SWOT Analysis

Strengths:

Unity in Diversity: ASEAN’s strength lies in its collective voice, which can wield considerable diplomatic weight. The principle of “ASEAN centrality” ensures that no single power can dominate the region’s agenda.
Economic Ties: Many ASEAN members have strong economic ties with China, benefiting from trade, investment, and development projects under initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Weaknesses:

Divergent Interests: The ten-member bloc includes nations with varying degrees of economic dependency on China, leading to conflicting priorities and reluctance to antagonize Beijing.
Lack of Cohesion: Only four ASEAN members—Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei—have direct claims in the South China Sea, limiting the bloc’s ability to present a unified front on this issue.

Opportunities:

Legal Frameworks: The 2016 ruling and UNCLOS provide a robust legal framework that ASEAN can leverage to advocate for the rule of law in maritime disputes.
Public Diplomacy: By promoting the arbitral ruling and fostering dialogue, the Philippines can galvanize support within ASEAN and beyond, highlighting the benefits of a rules-based order.

Threats:

Chinese Influence: China’s economic clout and diplomatic efforts, such as the divide-and-conquer strategy, threaten to undermine ASEAN’s unity and resolve.
Geopolitical Rivalries: The South China Sea is a theater for broader geopolitical rivalries, complicating efforts for regional stability and cooperation.

Assessing ASEAN’s Strategy

ASEAN’s strategy of silence can be viewed through multiple lenses. On one hand, it reflects a pragmatic approach to avoid direct confrontation with China, safeguarding economic interests and maintaining regional stability. On the other hand, this silence can be seen as a missed opportunity to assert collective regional sovereignty and uphold international law.

The muted response is partly attributable to the Philippines’ own ambivalence under former President Rodrigo Duterte, who downplayed the 2016 ruling in pursuit of closer economic ties with China. This set a precedent that other ASEAN members were likely to follow, prioritizing bilateral relations over collective action.

Recommendations for ASEAN and the Philippines

Strengthening Legal Advocacy: ASEAN should collectively endorse the 2016 arbitral ruling and integrate its principles into regional dialogues and communiques. This would reinforce the rule of law and set a unified stance against unilateral actions in the South China Sea.
Enhanced Public Diplomacy: The Philippines can lead by example, promoting awareness of the arbitral ruling through forums, workshops, and educational initiatives within ASEAN. Public diplomacy can foster a more informed and cohesive regional response.
Building Strategic Partnerships: While respecting the non-alignment policies of nations like Indonesia and Vietnam, the Philippines should explore avenues for cooperation on maritime security, resource management, and environmental protection. Joint initiatives can demonstrate the practical benefits of a rules-based approach.
Economic Diversification: ASEAN members should seek to diversify their economic partnerships, reducing over-reliance on China. This would empower them to take firmer stances on contentious issues without fearing economic repercussions.
Regional Security Frameworks: Strengthening regional security mechanisms, such as joint naval patrols and intelligence sharing, can enhance ASEAN’s capacity to respond to maritime threats and assert its collective interests.

Recommendations for China

Respecting International Law: China should respect the 2016 arbitral ruling and adhere to international legal frameworks like UNCLOS. This would demonstrate a commitment to the rule of law and foster regional stability.
Engaging in Constructive Dialogue: China should engage in constructive dialogue with ASEAN members to address maritime disputes. Bilateral and multilateral talks can lead to peaceful resolutions and mutually beneficial agreements.
Promoting Confidence-Building Measures: China can initiate confidence-building measures, such as joint resource management and environmental protection projects, to build trust and cooperation with ASEAN countries.
Economic Cooperation without Coercion: China should continue its economic cooperation with ASEAN without resorting to coercive tactics. Respecting the sovereignty and interests of its neighbors will create a more stable and prosperous regional environment.

As President Marcos Jr. continues to champion “ASEAN centrality,” the regional bloc stands at a crossroads. The silence of ASEAN may be a strategic choice, but the time has come to reconsider this approach. By embracing a more proactive stance, ASEAN can uphold international law, protect regional stability, and ensure that the echoes of history resonate with justice and cooperation. The path forward is fraught with challenges, but with unity and resolve, ASEAN and China can navigate the treacherous waters of the South China Sea towards a future of peace and prosperity.