Sara Duterte: A Strategic Shift or Political Realignment?

By Louis ‘Barok’ C Biraogo — September 7, 2024

FROM steadfast ally to disillusioned critic, Vice President Sara Duterte’s relationship with Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has taken a dramatic turn. Her abrupt resignation from the Cabinet was a seismic shift in Philippine politics, signaling deeper cracks in their political partnership. The recent apology to Kingdom of Jesus Christ (KOJC) members for endorsing Marcos during the elections unveils the unraveling of what was once framed as a “unity and continuity” platform. For Sara to so publicly distance herself from the president raises critical questions about her motives, her political strategy, and the potential consequences for both the Duterte and Marcos dynasties.

The Marcos-Duterte Political Alliance: A Fragile Coalition

In 2022, the Marcos-Duterte tandem—backed by the UniTeam ticket—appeared to embody political pragmatism. Sara Duterte, with her father’s formidable political machinery and her own support base in Mindanao, brought crucial votes to Marcos’ camp. The alliance was one of convenience, predicated on mutual benefits, but it seems that beneath the surface, there was discord from the beginning.

Duterte’s apology to the KOJC—where she admitted that her belief in a shared vision with Marcos was mistaken—illuminates the ideological divide that has been widening. The KOJC, a religious sect with strong political ties, notably supported the Duterte family. Her attempt to rebuild bridges with KOJC, which may have felt alienated due to the Marcos administration’s handling of the Quiboloy situation, hints at her recalibration of alliances.

But was this merely damage control? Or does her public opposition to Marcos foreshadow a political shift that could reshape the landscape for both the Duterte and Marcos camps?

Sara’s Opposition to Marcos: A Strategic Power Play?

Sara Duterte’s open opposition to Marcos’ policies and her abrupt exit from key Cabinet posts is no mere footnote in the annals of Philippine politics. It marks the rise of a potential formidable political player on the national stage who may be eyeing her next move.

To understand this opposition, it’s essential to analyze her strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT):

Strengths:

Political Legacy: As the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, she inherits a strong base of supporters, particularly in Mindanao. Her father’s tough-on-crime rhetoric and populist policies cemented a lasting influence, and Sara is well-positioned to capitalize on this.
Independent Identity: Her resignation and public opposition to Marcos signal a clear attempt to distance herself from the administration’s potential missteps, enabling her to craft an image of political independence. This could resonate with voters tired of traditional dynasties.
Grassroots Support: Sara has maintained a loyal following from her time as Davao City mayor, which will remain a critical pillar of any future political ambitions.

Weaknesses:

Public Perception of Disloyalty: For some, her departure from Marcos’ Cabinet may be seen as opportunistic or disloyal, eroding trust. Such actions can fuel skepticism about her ability to sustain long-term alliances.
Polarizing Persona: Her strong, often uncompromising demeanor can alienate potential allies. If she hopes to consolidate broader national support, she may need to soften her image and appeal to undecided voters.

Opportunities:

Emerging as an Opposition Leader: With discontent brewing within various sectors against Marcos’ policies, Sara is well-positioned to rally this dissenting voice. If she can channel frustrations with inflation, governance issues, or controversies surrounding Marcos’ administration, she could position herself as a viable alternative.
Solidifying New Alliances: By distancing herself from Marcos, Sara can potentially forge new political alliances, including with groups or individuals disenchanted with the current administration. This flexibility opens the door for broader coalitions in future elections.

Threats:

Retaliation from the Marcos Camp: Marcos’ allies may strike back, framing Sara’s departure as an act of betrayal, and could attempt to isolate her politically. If she becomes too vocal in her opposition, she risks being sidelined.
Political Fragmentation: If Sara’s public split with Marcos triggers factionalism within the Duterte base, she may struggle to maintain her influence over the Duterte bloc. Fragmentation could also weaken her capacity to consolidate power against Marcos.

The Shifting Tides: Why Sara Duterte May Be Turning Against Marcos

Sara Duterte’s motivations for turning opposition against Marcos can be understood through multiple lenses:

Political Survival: By turning opposition, Sara distances herself from potential scandals or policy failures that could define Marcos’ presidency. Her move may be calculated to preserve her political capital for the future, particularly if the administration becomes increasingly unpopular.
Setting the Stage for 2028: By severing ties with Marcos now, she positions herself as a potential frontrunner for the next presidential election. As political disillusionment with Marcos grows, Sara could step in as the alternative—a leader who once supported but ultimately rejected a faltering administration.
Appeasing Key Constituencies: The KOJC apology highlights her need to maintain support from her father’s loyal backers. A major strategic motivation may be ensuring the loyalty of groups like KOJC, which were instrumental in securing votes for the Duterte family.

A New Political Era: Impacts on Duterte and Marcos Politics

Sara Duterte’s shift to opposition carries profound implications for both political dynasties. For the Dutertes, it allows Sara to break free from the Marcos shadow and reassert her family’s brand of governance—one marked by populism and strongman rhetoric. However, if her opposition leads to significant fragmentation within her own base, the influence of the Duterte name may wane.

For Marcos, Sara’s break signals vulnerability within his coalition. It underscores the inherent tensions that arise from political marriages of convenience. Should Sara continue to galvanize opposition, Marcos may find his once-stable alliance in tatters, paving the way for a more divided political landscape heading into the 2028 election cycle.

Can Sara Achieve Her Objectives?

Sara Duterte’s prospects hinge on her ability to consolidate opposition forces without alienating too many key players. If she can maintain the loyalty of her father’s base while attracting new allies disenchanted with Marcos, she stands a strong chance of positioning herself as a formidable candidate in 2028. However, this tightrope walk could also backfire if her opposition becomes too antagonistic, leading to retaliatory political isolation.

Recommendations

To Sara Duterte: Focus on gradually building alliances within the opposition without fully burning bridges with Marcos. Cultivate a narrative of independence while still demonstrating the pragmatism needed to navigate the political landscape. Timing will be key—overplaying your hand too soon could isolate you from key supporters.

To Ferdinand Marcos Jr.: Address the growing discontent within your political coalition. Reinforcing the unity narrative may no longer suffice. Instead, focus on delivering tangible policy results that resonate with both your base and the public at large to prevent further defections.

Conclusion

Imagine a chessboard where the pieces are constantly shifting, and every move carries the risk of checkmate. That’s the reality of Philippine politics, where Sara Duterte’s bold gambit may yet prove to be a masterstroke—or her undoing. In Philippine politics, alliances are always in flux. But only time will tell whether this move will ultimately strengthen her position or pave the way for her political downfall.