Blood, Power, and Politics: Imee Marcos Goes Rogue

By Louis ‘Barok‘ C. Biraogo — September 30, 2024

WHEN Senator Imee Marcos announced her decision to go solo in the 2025 midterm elections, it wasn’t just a political statement – it was a seismic shift in the Marcos family’s power dynamics. Beneath the surface of her seemingly personal decision lies a battle for political survival, where loyalty, rivalry, and ambition collide. As tensions between Imee, her brother President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr., and his wife, Liza Araneta Marcos, reach a boiling point, the repercussions are set to shake the foundations of the nation’s political alliances.

Sibling Rivalry: Imee vs. BBM and Liza Araneta Marcos

Imee’s relationship with her brother, Bongbong, has historically been complex. During his 2016 vice-presidential run, which ended in defeat, Imee was a key campaign strategist. The loss, while hard-fought, may have left lingering tensions. Since then, Bongbong Marcos has emerged victorious in 2022, achieving the presidency. But as his political fortunes soared, so too did his dependence on new allies, including his wife Liza Araneta Marcos and House Speaker Martin Romualdez, a cousin. This trio forms the current nucleus of power in Malacañang.

However, cracks have emerged in this formidable power base. Imee’s closeness to the Duterte family, who have become political opponents of her brother, is one significant factor. While Imee has maintained a strong relationship with the Dutertes, particularly Sara Duterte, the President and Liza have distanced themselves. As Sara Duterte navigates her own political future, the divide between Imee and BBM’s circle grows more pronounced.

Imee’s decision to stand alone appears to be a reflection of this growing schism. The animosity between her and Liza Araneta Marcos is well-known, with some speculating that this has made Imee’s position in the administration’s slate increasingly precarious. Her exclusion, therefore, may not be a mere act of generosity to her brother but a calculated maneuver to secure her political identity independent of her family’s evolving alliances.

The Argument for Imee: Strength in Independence

There is a compelling case to be made for Imee’s strategy to stand alone. By separating herself from the administration’s slate, she projects herself as a maverick—a figure unbound by the often-toxic alliances of Philippine politics. In an electorate increasingly disillusioned with party politics, such an image could work to her advantage. Her consistent advocacy for nationalist causes and her loyalty to the memory of her father, Ferdinand Marcos Sr., is a strong base to rally loyalists and older supporters who still revere the Marcos name.

Politically, Imee may also calculate that she needs to stand apart from her brother’s circle because of its inevitable entanglements. The inclusion of politicians like Erwin Tulfo, Manny Pacquiao, and Camille Villar in BBM’s slate indicates a strategy focused on broad alliances, which can dilute the image of the Marcos brand. In contrast, Imee’s positioning as independent speaks to her desire to remain pure to the legacy of “Apo Lakay”—the patriarch Ferdinand Marcos.

The Argument Against: A Risky Gamble?

However, this move comes with significant risks. Philippine politics is rarely kind to those who step away from the powerful machinery of coalitions. By standing alone, Imee loses access to the immense logistical and financial resources that her brother’s administration can offer. She risks isolation, especially if she fails to garner the support of major political parties.

Furthermore, the optics of a family feud may harm her standing. The public may view her decision as one driven more by sibling rivalry than by principle. The personal animosities between Imee and Liza Araneta Marcos, coupled with the President’s loyalty to his wife, could push the administration to subtly undermine Imee’s candidacy. In the ruthless world of Philippine politics, family ties can quickly become political liabilities.

The President’s Dilemma: To Include or Exclude?

For President Marcos, the decision on whether to support Imee fully in her reelection bid is fraught with complexity. Politically, it would be wise to maintain a united family front, as any public perception of discord could weaken his standing. Yet, the lingering friction between Imee, Liza, and Speaker Romualdez complicates this calculation.

Including Imee in the administration’s slate would be a show of familial loyalty, but it could alienate key allies like the Romualdez camp, who may feel marginalized by Imee’s power within the family. Moreover, the alliance with figures like Romualdez is vital for BBM’s legislative agenda and political longevity.

On the other hand, excluding Imee risks deepening the divide within the Marcos family, potentially leading to open conflict that could spill into public view. BBM’s political opponents, including the Duterte bloc, would likely capitalize on such fissures.

SWOT Analysis of Imee’s Independent Candidacy

Strengths:

Name Recognition: The Marcos name still carries weight in many parts of the country, especially in the north.
Loyal Base: Imee has cultivated a loyal following, particularly among older voters, the Kikusang Kabataan ‘old guards’ and those who still view the Marcos era positively.
Independent Image: Standing alone could enhance her image as a principled leader, distancing her from traditional power structures.

Weaknesses:

Lack of Party Support: Without a political machine, she risks losing crucial financial and logistical backing.
Survey Standing: She currently ranks in the lower half of potential winners.
Family Tensions: The public perception of discord with her brother may alienate Marcos loyalists who prioritize unity.

Opportunities:

Appeal to Disillusioned Voters: Many voters are tired of political dynasties and may be drawn to her independent stance.
Strong Allies in Duterte Camp: Her relationship with Sara Duterte could provide a powerful alliance to counterbalance the administration’s slate.

Threats:

Opposition from the Administration: Subtle or overt opposition from her brother’s allies could damage her campaign.
Electoral Machinery: Her competitors, backed by the administration, have access to significant resources and voter mobilization networks.

Why Would Imee Choose to Stand Alone?

Imee’s motivations are multi-faceted. Part of it may be personal—a desire to assert her political independence and not be overshadowed by her brother’s presidency. Strategically, she may calculate that positioning herself as an outsider to traditional politics could resonate with voters tired of political alliances and family dynasties. Finally, her long-standing relationship with the Dutertes suggests a readiness to build alliances outside the Marcos camp, setting the stage for future political battles.

Impacts of Imee’s Decision

Her decision to stand alone reverberates across all camps. For the Marcos family, it exposes a deepening rift that may weaken their political dynasty. For the opposition and independents, it offers a potential ally in Imee—someone who may share their frustrations with the Marcos administration. For the administration itself, Imee’s independence could splinter their vote base and weaken their grip on power in the midterm elections.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gambit

Imee Marcos’ decision to stand alone is a bold and risky gambit. While it could pay off by reinforcing her image as a principled leader, the risks are significant. Without the support of the powerful Marcos-Romualdez alliance, her campaign will face an uphill battle. Yet, Philippine politics is full of surprises, and in this case, the story of family, power, and legacy is still unfolding.

Imee’s bold gamble in the 2025 elections could either cement her place in Philippine politics or mark her downfall. As the country braces for the climactic act of the Marcos family saga, only time will reveal whether her defiance will be her strength or her undoing.